CHASE CASE 14

[Paul Austin]

21z: Sitting under what might be a beautiful little LP, I contemplate a decision. I can sit here hoping this struggling little cell can find enough moisture to become sfc-based, but I'm concerned about the impinging dry air and veering sfc winds all around but to the se. I could race down se to intercept the OK cell drifting to the w, but surviving and looking rather impressive. I could race n of DDC to intercept the srn-most development. It looks explosive on sat and would be moving n into a nice directional sheer environment. I think the more srn TX panhandle is out of play for me at this point, though the tcu down there looks decent. Two hrs to Ness City, two hrs to Arnett, hmm......Well with potential still for this nrn pan DL area and a cell just to my south, I think I'll get south of this cell so as to stay on it whilst positioning more toward Arnett, should I decide to intercept the OK cell. New target is Elmwood, OK. (Whoa, deja vu. This is beginning to feel like a broken record, and I think I'm gonna regret writing off points north. The Danes have already left me for the stuff up north.)

 

[Jeremy Perez]

I'm going to drop south of Bucklin, KS on Rt. 34 to try for position on the SE side of the cell that's over Meade and watch as it moves up. I'll see if it continues to grow or else washes out like the dead anvil breezing away to my northeast. I'm interested in the northwestward progress of the convection in western Oklahoma & how that will affect things here.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Looks like both Michaels and I are on a decent cell near Hill City. Seeing the new convection to my south, (and not knowing what I'm looking at now lol) I will stick with this thing now, but will drop south at a moment's notice if this thing doesn't look good.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

I remember this day now as i chased it. My primary target in this chase was my secondary on the actual chase. I'm seeing some tornadoes or based off the 21z I will be soon. This was a great chase

 

[Verne Carlson]

From Dodge City I shot north on 283 and am now on the cell near Jetmore, KS - rapid rotation and a wall cloud? Tornado possible?

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Going to Greensburg,KS

 

[Jeff Duda]

Looks like my moving eastward from Woodward to get the cell that was to my southeast, which died, caused me to get out of the way of the splitting cells that are now just to my southwest.

Perfect position!

I see no reason to wait any longer: these are the storms I'm going after.

 

[John Farley]

I am moving east through Woodward, OK, then SE to Seiling, OK, to try to get ahead of the cells now firing south of Woodward. If I can make this move without getting cored, I should be able to put myself in decent position for the southern storm of the pair south of Woodward at 21Z

 

[Andrea Griffa]

I moved north trying to intercept northern Ks cell! I feel it is quite HP now, let's see the next stage if it's gonna organize a little bit.

 

[Paul Austin]

21z: Sitting under what might be a beautiful little LP, I contemplate a decision. I can sit here hoping this struggling little cell can find enough moisture to become sfc-based, but I'm concerned about the impinging dry air and veering sfc winds all around but to the se. I could race down se to intercept the OK cell drifting to the w, but surviving and looking rather impressive. I could race n of DDC to intercept the srn-most development. It looks explosive on sat and would be moving n into a nice directional sheer environment. I think the more srn TX panhandle is out of play for me at this point, though the tcu down there looks decent. Two hrs to Ness City, two hrs to Arnett, hmm......Well with potential still for this nrn pan DL area and a cell just to my south, I think I'll get south of this cell so as to stay on it whilst positioning more toward Arnett, should I decide to intercept the OK cell. New target is Elmwood, OK. (Whoa, deja vu. This is beginning to feel like a broken record, and I think I'm gonna regret writing off points north. The Danes have already left me for the stuff up north.)

If this cell begins doing something while I'm drifting south, I'll stay with it northward. It all depends on what visual cues I might be able to see. I'll just have to wait for the update to find out.

 

[Matt Gingery]

22Z SUPPLEMENTAL UPDATE​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i40.tinypic.com/6tg6ck.jpg

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i39.tinypic.com/33mrgud.jpg

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i43.tinypic.com/2v8lg5d.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE​

CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i41.tinypic.com/25ionpk.gif

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i39.tinypic.com/draupv.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i42.tinypic.com/2m2c2zq.gif



23Z UPDATE WILL BE POSTED LATER TODAY. 22Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WILL BE DERIVED FROM THE 2143Z INFO ON THE 21Z UPDATE. THIS UPDATE IS FOR CELL POSITION AND DEVELOPMENT.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Still on the supercell near Hill City. More storms developing south of it but they aren't do much yet from the looks of it so no need to leave this monster.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Still under this cell in Meade Co. KS, looks the dryline is ready to explode in the next hour or two.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

I'm on the Cell just west of Abernathy, TX, with the healthiest radar returns. Keeping an eye on the cell popping south also. Looks like that has a good chance of being clear of other junk to it's south looking at vis sat. Will likely drop down to that one, if it manages to eclipse the one I am currently on.

 

[John Erwin]

Staying with this cell near Meade, KS. It looks to be getting organized and has persisted for quite some time now so I feel I'm in the right area. I'm going to drift with this thing towards the junction of 160 and 283 just south of Minneola. I might regret staying in this area later but I still think I have a shot at seeing something isolated.