Andrea Griffa
EF5
The supercell of Hill City looks like a monster and it may be reorganizing: I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a wedge on the ground right now.
The supercell of Hill City looks like a monster and it may be reorganizing: I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a wedge on the ground right now.
Jason Branz
EF2
Staying with the Meade KS cell as well. My only concern is the storm to the SE zapping the good flow, but hey, we're on a storm that, judging from radar, probably looks really pretty. Time to break out the camera and tripod and find some interesting foregrounds.
Josh Richardson
EF4
Im guessing here soon the northern stuff isn't going to be looking that great(although has already put down a decent tube Im sure) and the tornadic action is going to be here in Extreme SW KS, OK panhandle and into TX Panhandle. Since Im already here in Meade Co. I will stay here and probably get on a TOR at some point but I have feeling TX Panhandle is going to light up....didnt we get a clue earlier saying "Sunset is around 0130Z"?
Im guessing the point was not to give up on the southern play even though the northern play(Hill City) will be great as well, I anticipate after 00z its mostly the southern play that produces the TOR's for the rest of the night though.
Im guessing the point was not to give up on the southern play even though the northern play(Hill City) will be great as well, I anticipate after 00z its mostly the southern play that produces the TOR's for the rest of the night though.
Jeremy Perez
Supporter
Vigorous inflow on the Meade cell seems to be building WNW-ward. I'm moving west on Hwy 160 from Sitka, KS toward the junction with 283. I'm not sure that I have a good view from here, but I don't want to drive under zero-visibility downpour to get in a better spot on Hwy 160. If the storm's structure continues to look good & any northward movement allows me to head further west without getting pounded, I'll drive back toward Meade. Otherwise, I'll hang around Hwy 160/283 & see how the towers building in the OK panhandle start to behave.
Buddy W Bradley
Well after a delay in Hennessey OK to get a belt changed on my car 
, I have moved north on hwy 81 to Enid and now moving west on hwy 412 to Bouse Junction, OK. This gives me a better north-south road option along hwy 281 as well. The supercell just to my west looks to be intensifying and I may be seeing a wall cloud in the distance. This is the storm I am gonna be chasing this evening. 
, I have moved north on hwy 81 to Enid and now moving west on hwy 412 to Bouse Junction, OK. This gives me a better north-south road option along hwy 281 as well. The supercell just to my west looks to be intensifying and I may be seeing a wall cloud in the distance. This is the storm I am gonna be chasing this evening. 
Leah Robertson
EF1
Since I'm behind in the updates, I wanted to make a speedy reply as I'm in a rush to head out the door... (What else is new, lol).
*Looks at 21Z update.*
I see that the chasers up north are having a grand ol' time with that HP-beast, kudos! =) The little mini-me cell SE of DDC has fizzled out and I'm not at all liking the temp/dp depression Dodge City currently has. Hopefully something will develop east of there closer to the moisture-axis and lower the LCL's as they are rather high right now. Still liking the pressure falls over the region. I know the warmfront is much more promising and I probably should head up north but I'm wanting to get some storm structure shots and the southern target seems like the area to be in that sense. That, and I'm not at all a fan of HP-storms as they are much moodier than I am which is saying something right there, haha. There is a cell on the Kansas/Oklahoma border which is trying to get organized so I'm going to drop just a tad SE to Coldwater, KS and check it out.
*Looks at 22Z update*
Keeping an eye on the cell in Meade County and holding my breath that it will somehow tap into the deeper moisture SE of there.
*Looks at 21Z update.*
I see that the chasers up north are having a grand ol' time with that HP-beast, kudos! =) The little mini-me cell SE of DDC has fizzled out and I'm not at all liking the temp/dp depression Dodge City currently has. Hopefully something will develop east of there closer to the moisture-axis and lower the LCL's as they are rather high right now. Still liking the pressure falls over the region. I know the warmfront is much more promising and I probably should head up north but I'm wanting to get some storm structure shots and the southern target seems like the area to be in that sense. That, and I'm not at all a fan of HP-storms as they are much moodier than I am which is saying something right there, haha. There is a cell on the Kansas/Oklahoma border which is trying to get organized so I'm going to drop just a tad SE to Coldwater, KS and check it out.
*Looks at 22Z update*
Keeping an eye on the cell in Meade County and holding my breath that it will somehow tap into the deeper moisture SE of there.
Dean Baron
Supporter
Based on the 21z data, I'm still sitting in PRATT, KS but I may move a bit east as the dryline aproaches my area. That storm along the KS/OK border is really struggling but I'm holding out hope it will get its act together. I've seen totally gargabe storms turn in to killer supercells (i.e. 5/25/08 Hugo, MN storm). For now I will stay in Pratt and will edit this post if I decide to move.
Paul Austin
22z
22z: OK/KS border cell looks like it has begun to root into the sfc moisture and possibly drifted a little east or ese. This is encouraging with the higher Tds into nrn OK. I'll drop the Elmwood plans and stay on this storm, though I've seen storms like these shrivel up within an hour. The cell moving toward Seiling, OK still looks quite impressive. In rl I would have been rather tempted to ditch this cell earlier for that one, but I'm gonna hang here and watch this thing develop...or die. The TX pan. appears to be lighting up, and that beast up in nc KS has prob. been warned for some time now. Provided I decided this while driving south, I have turned around and am now trying to position southeast of Meade, KS. Unfortunately, roads are almost non-existant here. I'll try to get out on some of these farm roads without getting stuck. If this cell dies or fails to organize, I'll get south as fast as possible to try to get on something between the Seiling cell and the dry line action firing off, perhaps post-sunset.
22z: OK/KS border cell looks like it has begun to root into the sfc moisture and possibly drifted a little east or ese. This is encouraging with the higher Tds into nrn OK. I'll drop the Elmwood plans and stay on this storm, though I've seen storms like these shrivel up within an hour. The cell moving toward Seiling, OK still looks quite impressive. In rl I would have been rather tempted to ditch this cell earlier for that one, but I'm gonna hang here and watch this thing develop...or die. The TX pan. appears to be lighting up, and that beast up in nc KS has prob. been warned for some time now. Provided I decided this while driving south, I have turned around and am now trying to position southeast of Meade, KS. Unfortunately, roads are almost non-existant here. I'll try to get out on some of these farm roads without getting stuck. If this cell dies or fails to organize, I'll get south as fast as possible to try to get on something between the Seiling cell and the dry line action firing off, perhaps post-sunset.
Paul Austin
On second thought, I'll move back up through Meade and on to a point several miles north of Englewood, KS in an effort to either get a closer look along a country road (maybe U Rd?) or position a little further away for a nice structure/time lapse shot. Come on little Meade cell; don't let me down now! Let's see some spin!
Matt Gingery
FULL 23Z UPDATE
SURFACE ANALYSIS
WIND PROFILER: http://i39.tinypic.com/e0e3b.gif
MIDWEST: http://i44.tinypic.com/nvzggh.gif
SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i42.tinypic.com/fjf8k0.gif
UPPER MIDWEST: http://i44.tinypic.com/awav6d.gif
MID MISSISSIPPI: http://i39.tinypic.com/352jktv.gif
VISIBLE SATELLITE
MIDWEST: http://i39.tinypic.com/mr74vc.jpg
SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i44.tinypic.com/33m50mb.jpg
UPPER MIDWEST: http://i42.tinypic.com/hv5vud.jpg
MID MISSISSIPPI: http://i42.tinypic.com/533frc.jpg
RADAR COMPOSITE
MIDWEST: http://i42.tinypic.com/315k2tf.gif
SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i44.tinypic.com/23ll64x.gif
UPPER MIDWEST: http://i41.tinypic.com/28iovw8.gif
UPPER MISSISSIPPI: http://i40.tinypic.com/adyr1j.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS
MD #7: http://i43.tinypic.com/72x5qd.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0528 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND S CENTRAL NEB / WRN AND N CENTRAL KS...
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH
VALID
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WW. NEW WW WILL
BE NECESSARY SHORTLY INTO N CENTRAL KS / S CENTRAL NEB.
SEVERAL SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE ERN HALF OF THE OTHER WATCH...WITH THE STRONGEST STORM NOW
AFFECTING PARTS OF GRAHAM AND ROOKS COUNTIES IN NWRN KS. THIS STORM
HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.
THOUGH INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH ERN EXTENT ACROSS NEB /
KS...AIRMASS CONTINUES TO RECOVER ACROSS N CENTRAL KS. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW AFOREMENTIONED GRAHAM / ROOKS COUNTY STORM TO CONTINUE EWD
ALONG WITH ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE...NEW WW WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED E OF TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.
MD #8: http://i41.tinypic.com/2d7a4qr.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...SWRN NEB PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID
TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF NRN CO SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB
PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE SHORTLY.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES FROM 1000-2000 J/KG/ EXTENDING WWD FROM SWRN NEB/NWRN KS
INTO NERN CO ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SFC LOW OVER WCENTRAL KS.
PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWS MODERATE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ATOP
NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING AROUND 50 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
OVER NERN CO MORE THAN AMPLE FOR SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY AS CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO ENCOUNTER BETTER INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OVER NERN
CO/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE GIVEN NELY SFC WIND
FIELDS.
*******TORNADO WATCH*******
tornado watch: http://i42.tinypic.com/23m2zxd.gif
-Disregard the radar with this watch because it isn't up to date. . .
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
550 PM CDT
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 550 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH OF GRAND ISLAND
NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALINA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE.
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE..
DISCUSSION...HP SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND NOW IN N
CNTRL KS EXPECTED TO MOVE/DEVELOP ENE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT E OF WW BACKED LOW
LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING OUTFLOW BNDRY AND DEVELOPING
SURFACE WAVE IN N CNTRL KS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL
STORM ROTATION/POSSIBLE TORNADOES DESPITE LIKELY EVOLUTION TOWARD A
LEWPY SQUALL LINE WITH TIME.
Last edited by a moderator:
Aw crap...blew the Woodward cell.
Now I'm racing northward as the storms to my west move NNEward. Hopefully I can get up to the one SW of DDC before it moves on. Otherwise I'll hope another one pops behind it. Thank goodness I still have at least an hour or two of daylight to work with. I might be able to chase something down and catch it.
Now I'm racing northward as the storms to my west move NNEward. Hopefully I can get up to the one SW of DDC before it moves on. Otherwise I'll hope another one pops behind it. Thank goodness I still have at least an hour or two of daylight to work with. I might be able to chase something down and catch it.
Paul Austin
23z
23z: Wow, glad I didn't quite give up on the Meade cell. That Seiling cell just completely crapped out in a hurry. I could have just camped out at the good ole Dalton Bedpost Motel (my starting point) for most of the day instead of moving s then n then s then n again all day, haha. I would position myself just east of Meade, KS. Hopefully, I didn't get cored to badly earlier when I passed through town on my way toward Englewood for the 22z update. I'll either stay on US 160 east toward the US 283 north option or US 54 ne toward Minneola, depending on what I determine the storm motion and exact location along the highways to be. Looks like my pretty structure storm could be a producer, yeehah!.
23z: Wow, glad I didn't quite give up on the Meade cell. That Seiling cell just completely crapped out in a hurry. I could have just camped out at the good ole Dalton Bedpost Motel (my starting point) for most of the day instead of moving s then n then s then n again all day, haha. I would position myself just east of Meade, KS. Hopefully, I didn't get cored to badly earlier when I passed through town on my way toward Englewood for the 22z update. I'll either stay on US 160 east toward the US 283 north option or US 54 ne toward Minneola, depending on what I determine the storm motion and exact location along the highways to be. Looks like my pretty structure storm could be a producer, yeehah!.
Michael O'Keeffe
Well according to the md the cell in NW Kansas that I have been chasing for the last few hours has been producing multiple tornadoes! The storm is continuing to look good so I will stay on it.
Paul Austin
Anyone down there on that Marathon, TX cell? That thing's been crankin' for at least a couple hours now.
I don't see any reason this cell I'm on is gonna die out soon: 73 Td se into OK with a slightly backed sfc wind. But if it does, I'll just drop down toward the TX/OK pans. for some of that dry line action.
I don't see any reason this cell I'm on is gonna die out soon: 73 Td se into OK with a slightly backed sfc wind. But if it does, I'll just drop down toward the TX/OK pans. for some of that dry line action.
Brandon Ivey
EF2
I have been hanging out in Hays, KS watching this storm off to my west, which looks really good at the moment on radar. Hopefully I will get a tornado or two out of this thing. I am not really worried about the inflow being impeeded much from the cells to the south. They are a good distance away and the inflow vectors are more of a SSE to ESE direction. I think I may bag my first ever virtual tornado today!!!
