Matt Gingery
This case should not be as easy as the last case to solve. I imagine a few will possibly remember this case once we get late into it and alot of the images are known. There will be no confusion in this case. The first list of data is derived from 00Z data. There will be updates on a daily basis. The 12 Z update will be sometime tomorrow. I wish the best of luck to everyone. There will be ample time to post on the 00Z info. . .
00Z DATA
MAPS AND U.A. CHARTS
00Z CONUS IR: http://i39.tinypic.com/14295p3.jpg
Surface Analysis: http://i44.tinypic.com/345cw7s.gif
925mb UA: http://i42.tinypic.com/2lj0ra0.gif
850mb UA: http://i40.tinypic.com/nfh2rr.gif
700mb UA: http://i42.tinypic.com/19xrwo.gif
500mb UA: http://i44.tinypic.com/17povq.gif
300mb UA: http://i39.tinypic.com/t4zncy.gif
Convective Outlook:
http://i43.tinypic.com/2urkpb4.gif
Convective Analysis:
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MO
VALLEY....
MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
ALREADY APPROACHING CALIFORNIA...AND WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU TODAY...AS INTENSE UPSTREAM UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WITH APPROACH OF
LATTER SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
EVOLVING LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ATOP VERY MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WESTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL AGAIN EXCEED 4000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES...AT LEAST IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED
BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
LARGE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD OUTFLOW SLOWLY SURGING
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...WHERE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT NEW DEVELOPMENT.
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT A LARGE PART OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL ENHANCE FORCING
ALONG PRIMARY LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
MAINTAINS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
THUS...STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PERHAPS CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA. FRONT...DRY
LINE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS ALL LIKELY WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INHIBITION
WEAKENS BY/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY
ENHANCE CONVECTION SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING CLUSTER...AND EXTENT OF
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BROADER
SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER SUPPORT...STRENGTHENING INHIBITION WITH LOSS
OF HEATING WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE SLOWED BY NOCTURNAL INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL JET...AND MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
**DON'T FORGET TONIGHTS LIVE 3HR VIRTUAL CHASE FROM DANN CIANCA**
The LIVE CHASE begins at 1Z (8EST,7CST,6MST,4PST) and will run for a little over three hours. 1Z will correspond to 22Z of the chase day, 2Z to 23Z and so on. The LIVE CHASE will last a bit over 3 hours with the final results being posted at 430Z (or 130Z chase time). Expect updates every half hour or so during that period.
00Z DATA
MAPS AND U.A. CHARTS
00Z CONUS IR: http://i39.tinypic.com/14295p3.jpg
Surface Analysis: http://i44.tinypic.com/345cw7s.gif
925mb UA: http://i42.tinypic.com/2lj0ra0.gif
850mb UA: http://i40.tinypic.com/nfh2rr.gif
700mb UA: http://i42.tinypic.com/19xrwo.gif
500mb UA: http://i44.tinypic.com/17povq.gif
300mb UA: http://i39.tinypic.com/t4zncy.gif
Convective Outlook:
http://i43.tinypic.com/2urkpb4.gif
Convective Analysis:
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO MID MO
VALLEY....
MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES WILL OCCUR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
ALREADY APPROACHING CALIFORNIA...AND WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLATEAU TODAY...AS INTENSE UPSTREAM UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST PACIFIC. WITH APPROACH OF
LATTER SYSTEM...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
EVOLVING LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE
RATES FROM THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN PLAINS...ATOP VERY MOIST RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
WESTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AND BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON...MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY WILL AGAIN EXCEED 4000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES...AT LEAST IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED
BY EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
LARGE ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD OUTFLOW SLOWLY SURGING
SOUTHWARD INTO OKLAHOMA...WHERE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP AND WEAK
MID-LEVEL FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT NEW DEVELOPMENT.
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY IS
UNCERTAIN...BUT STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
COULD AFFECT A LARGE PART OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT
...WHERE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET LIKELY WILL ENHANCE FORCING
ALONG PRIMARY LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...AS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
MAINTAINS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
THUS...STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...AND PERHAPS CORRIDOR SOUTH
OF SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEBRASKA. FRONT...DRY
LINE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS ALL LIKELY WILL
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS INHIBITION
WEAKENS BY/SHORTLY AFTER PEAK HEATING. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY...SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES.
STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY
ENHANCE CONVECTION SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF MORNING CLUSTER...AND EXTENT OF
CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH BROADER
SCALE DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
WITH LITTLE MID/UPPER SUPPORT...STRENGTHENING INHIBITION WITH LOSS
OF HEATING WILL ULTIMATELY LEAD TO DEMISE OF STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE SLOWED BY NOCTURNAL INCREASE
IN LOW-LEVEL JET...AND MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.
**DON'T FORGET TONIGHTS LIVE 3HR VIRTUAL CHASE FROM DANN CIANCA**
The LIVE CHASE begins at 1Z (8EST,7CST,6MST,4PST) and will run for a little over three hours. 1Z will correspond to 22Z of the chase day, 2Z to 23Z and so on. The LIVE CHASE will last a bit over 3 hours with the final results being posted at 430Z (or 130Z chase time). Expect updates every half hour or so during that period.
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