CHASE CASE 14

[Jason Branz]

Drove to DDC last night after recognizing the developing lee cyclone. Woke up this morning and saw the outflow boundaries and the decent capping on all the soundings along the dryline area and decided to stay put for now. We'll see if we play the better thermo down south, or the better dynamics up north.

 

[John Farley]

Initially, I was debating which state capital to start from - Madison, WI or Oklahoma City, OK. Now that I have seen the 12Z data, and since this is a fantasy chase, I have plunked myself down in OKC and started from there. Based on the 12Z data, I am repositioning a couple hours west on I-40 to the TX-OK state line, as I think this will be a dryline event. Looks like good upper support and directional shear, so that's where I will head.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Leaving Memphis for Fayettville..................

 

[Charles Kuster]

I will head down to Greensburg, Kansas and wait for more data. I am not actually 100% sure what to think about this day, but the DDC sounding looks good, so I will head south.

 

[Doug Mitchell]

I'm heading from Lawrence to Hutchinson, KS

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Still sound a sleep in DDC, probably will sleep right up until the 15Z update, and luckily I'm not missing much as the 12Z data doesn't help me determine where to head just yet. With the given charts it's hard to see these shortwaves, come 15Z I'll be watching for pressure falls, monitoring the movement of the main OF boundary, and trying to pinpoint the location of the shortwave...

 

[Paul Austin]

I think, as predicted earlier, I'll just go back to sleep here in Meade, KS for a while. I like the 70 Td south of me near Woodward. The sounding out of DDC with 3200 J/kg of sfc CAPE and a nice upper profile makes me happy. I also like the upper air dynamics near this region with slightly faster winds moving away, giving rise to unidirectional divergence aloft. Hopefully, the CF doesn't sag too far south. I'd like to stay near the 300mb and 500mb speed maxima. I also hope for more Serly/SWerly 850mb winds in the coming updates. The DL looks pretty good, too, but I'm gonna sleep on it. Marc, wake me up when the Danes start getting antsy.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I'm still staying in Medford, WI.

 

[Marc Austin]

I think, as predicted earlier, I'll just go back to sleep here in Meade, KS for a while. I like the 70 Td south of me near Woodward. The sounding out of DDC with 3200 J/kg of sfc CAPE and a nice upper profile makes me happy. I also like the upper air dynamics near this region with slightly faster winds moving away, giving rise to unidirectional divergence aloft. Hopefully, the CF doesn't sag too far south. I'd like to stay near the 300mb and 500mb speed maxima. I also hope for more Serly/SWerly 850mb winds in the coming updates. The DL looks pretty good, too, but I'm gonna sleep on it. Marc, wake me up when the Danes start getting antsy.

Well since I haven't even awaken to take a look at the 12z info, I am naturally already asleep and will stay that way until around 13-14z. I would say the DDC sounding is pretty encouraging and since it's a stone's throw away from Meade, KS it's even more encouraging. I think SW KS/ NW OK is a good bet for today. That could change with the speed of the dryline, but I'm thinking today will be a good day. Note to self: don't be overly optimistic with the Danish guys, don't want to get their hopes up. Oh... nevermind, I'm still asleep...

 

[Dann Cianca]

I'm going to set up in Syracuse, Kansas. Colorado is looking a little dry ... might need some outflow boundary tag to get things going up there. I'll play in the better moisture until something interesting comes up.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Woodward, OK, for me.

 

[Brian Stertz]

After looking over the 12z data...I am liking the N. Texas Panhandle today...I am crashing south down out of Hays. I will be holding at Perryton TX. Just can't ignore that very nice directional shear profile today with solid CAPEs all over the Texas Panhandle and adjacent areas of KS and OK. This looks to me like a good solid TX Panhandle day with a few isolated monsters by early evening. Tornado potential should be there with the decent westerly 500mb flow.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I'm going to set up in Syracuse, Kansas.

You could drive just a few more miles to your west and stop by Uncle Eddy's house in Coolidge, KS lol.

I'll start the day off in Haviland, KS since I am liking that profiler early this morning.

 

[Leah Robertson]

*Looks at the 00Z data*

NOT that I have any bias towards Kansas, I'm going to go ahead and hang out with some of my peeps in Cimarron, KS but before I head out the door (still in central NM), it's very important to make sure that I have the essential gear for this chasing trip:

• KU hoodie, check
• KU T-shirts, check
• KU earrings, check
• KU 2008 Mens Basketball National Champions baseball hat, check
• 10 cans of insect repellent, double check

Oh, and then there are a few, less essential things (laptop, maps, camera, cell phone etc...) I'm going to bring as well.

*Looks at the 12Z data*
Since I'm about to pass out at the keyboard, this is going to be really quick: Noticed the outflow boundary in SW Kansas, digging the DDC sounding, upper level support isn't too bad. Going to stay in Cimarron and wait for the next update. If there aren't any tornadoes in this region, there should be at least some wicked hail.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Still liking the DDC target here in bed at Motel 8: outrageus sounding and a good outflow boudary very close to me.
Let's see how does the situation evolve.