CHASE CASE 14

[Chad Cowan]

I'm sitting in DDC... 12z sounding showed 5000+ CAPE and current sfc obs show a se'rly wind gusting to 30 kts.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

Well, I'm truly out of position with down in Texas. Not sure I'll get on anything further north from here, so I'm going to stick it out. Might go watch a movie now and hope for some isolated pretty SVR T-Storms later. I could get up to Liberal for 20z mind you, but 5 hours of driving might still not result in anything but wasted gas. Going to be lazy and bust down here

 

[Charles Kuster]

I will move to Minneola, Kansas and wait for the 18Z update.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Cyclogenesis appears to be underway in West-Central Kansas, south of Goodland. I will be heading north of Dodge City, perhaps as far as Hays. We headed out at about 12Z and should arrive in Hays in time for the 18Z update.

 

[Matt Gingery]

18Z UPDATE​

SURFACE ANALYSIS​

CONUS: http://i39.tinypic.com/2qdwhap.jpg

CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i43.tinypic.com/2qmja8m.jpg

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i41.tinypic.com/20uplqf.jpg

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i44.tinypic.com/vym6ht.jpg

MID MISSISSIPPI: http://i44.tinypic.com/vym6ht.jpg

WIND PROFILER: http://i44.tinypic.com/2eowbhi.jpg

VISIBLE SATELLITE​

MIDWEST: http://i40.tinypic.com/20pav11.jpg

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i44.tinypic.com/6sumiv.jpg

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i43.tinypic.com/vewzcy.jpg

MID MISSISSIPPI: http://i43.tinypic.com/10git6b.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE​

NATIONAL: http://i42.tinypic.com/xkqej5.jpg

MIDWEST: http://i40.tinypic.com/2e187jm.jpg

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i44.tinypic.com/257nh4k.jpg

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i39.tinypic.com/2s8hclw.jpg

MID MISSISSIPPI: http://i43.tinypic.com/2n9dv1l.jpg

UPPER MISSISSIPPI: http://i39.tinypic.com/hu3jic.jpg

18Z AVAILABLE SOUNDINGS​

DODGE CITY: http://i43.tinypic.com/12364jk.jpg

NORTH PLATTE: http://i42.tinypic.com/1418jp.jpg

AMARILLO: http://i44.tinypic.com/k1cqat.jpg

MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS​

MD#1: http://i43.tinypic.com/33le2j8.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH W CNTRL AND SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY NEXT FEW HOURS OVER
CNTRL OK...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR WWD AND SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO WRN
OK. SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
MAIN THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED SLOW
STORM MOTIONS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS MORNING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR JUST N OF
FORT SMITH WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL OK NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY THEN NWWD TO
NEAR GAGE. DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE IN THE WARM SECTOR S OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN THROUGH WRN OK AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT. RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING
WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. THE SLY LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...15 TO 20 KT SLY FLOW
IMPINGING ON THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND N OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE CAP WEAKENS.
BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IMMEDIATELY N OF THE BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW IS
RELATIVELY WEAK. IF ENOUGH STORMS DEVELOP TO ORGANIZE A COLD
POOL...SOME SLOW SWWD DEVELOPMENT MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ONCE
STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED.


MD#2: http://i42.tinypic.com/210jcdi.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL NY...VT/NH AND WRN ME

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL



TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA POSES A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL RISK APPEARS TO
BE MARGINAL ENOUGH THAT A WW MAY BE ANTICIPATED ATTM.

FCST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OVER THE AREA SUGGESTS THAT
MUCAPES WERE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG OVER THE REGION. TSTMS HAVE
RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN
ONTARIO EWD ACROSS NRN NY...NRN VT/NRN NH INTO SWRN ME. AN UPPER
WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY OVER ERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AFOREMENTIONED E-W ORIENTED BOUNDARY. MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /AOB 30 KTS/ THUS...GIVEN
VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR TYPE STORM STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
AMT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA...BRIEF SUPERCELLULAR TYPE
STRUCTURES MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT.
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER SUPPORT CONVECTION EVENTUALLY
BECOMING LINEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE ESEWD AROUND 20 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER
MOTIONS WITHIN INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS.



THIS IS THE LAST FULL UPDATE TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW SUPPLEMENTAL UPDATES PRIOR TO THE FULL 21Z UPDATE TOMORROW.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'm staying in Pratt, KS for now, may head north here in a little bit but who knows.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Well I guess its time to drift down to Woodward OK and watch over some more data.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I'm going to micro adjust to Sublette, Kansas. I'm feeling the dry air breathing down my neck and want to get into a little better moisture. Plus, I like the road options there.

 

[Jason Branz]

Moisture is surging north with the warm front, as one would expect with cyclogenesis. Nice Cu field developing over SW KS. Lapse rates are pretty good on both DDC and AMA soundings, so I don't see much reason to move. We're going to drop down to Meade, KS and observe the Cu field for a while. That way we can still recover to the north if we need to with good N-S road options.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

That OFB slowly continues it's southerly progression but doesn't appear to be modifying things West of a Lawton to Great Bend line, I'm holding in Liberal, starting to bake here and temp/dp dpressions are creeping up, however the DL is starting to sharpen just off to my West and the mega juice lurks just to my East; already quite unstable for 18Z with >2500 CAPE across the panhandle, not the greatest wind shear in the world but there is good turning and (esp. AMA) looks more than suffice to get things spinning; I'm gonna sit here, play some catch, work on the tan, answer the locals questions, and hope an aproaching wave brings some midlevel cooling and robust convection by evening. Nice thing is if we can get some convection things should be moving slow, so I am not to worried about being Well East of the DL today.

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

Well.. I see as I was getting ready to reply that the 18z update came out. But before reading it, I have decided to hold put in Stillwater OK. I probably will be on the move after reading and studying the 18z update.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

No need to move from Dodge City. Looks like SW Kansas and NW Oklahoma continue to look like the hotspot. With the dryline to my west and the good juice pumping up my way, we will stay put for the moment and watch the dryline to see if we need to micro adjust to the E or head a bit SE.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well this last batch of data is kind of interesting, and not exactly what I expected. The WF lifted further north than I really anticipated, and to me the hodo in North Platte looks like it has better curvature than DDC. Hmmm. I'm going to have to hold out here in Garden City, however. There looks to be a fairly good dryline bulge forming in this area, so I'm hoping that something breaks through soon!

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

Ok. After looking over the 18z data, it looks like the dryline is sharpening up over the TX and OK panhandles. It is time to move west to Hennessy OK and wait for further updates.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

I feel the need to be closer to the cumulus field to the east. I'm heading out of Liberal & up to Meade, KS & should be there before 1:30 PM. I am prepared to be slightly aggravated that I didn't stay in Elk City.