20Z SUPPLEMENTAL UPDATE
SATELLITE
CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i41.tinypic.com/2q8r6ab.jpg
SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i40.tinypic.com/euiluo.jpg
UPPER MIDWEST: http://i40.tinypic.com/73ig09.jpg
MID MISSISSIPPI: http://i40.tinypic.com/f25tp1.jpg
RADAR COMPOSITE
CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i39.tinypic.com/29y3yqh.gif
SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i42.tinypic.com/24e137d.gif
UPPER MISSISSIPPI: http://i44.tinypic.com/t0m3rm.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
MD #4 http://i42.tinypic.com/20062vo.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI WWD INTO ERN WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN LOWER MI ALONG LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE
ZONE MAY BEGIN TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. THERE IS ALSO SOME CHANCE THAT ISOLATED SVR STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER ERN WI/PORTIONS OF WCENTRAL/NWRN LOWER MI IN THE SAME
TIME FRAME.
WELL DEFINED MCV OVER ERN IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD INTO WI
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. BLR PROFILER SHOWS MID LEVEL
SWLY FLOW HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 40 KTS. APX VWP DATA SHOWS 5 KM
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KTS. MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW/DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 30-35 KTS OVER THE AREA...COMBINED WITH ALREADY
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
NRN/CENTRAL LOWER MI.
FARTHER WEST OVER ERN WI IF THE CIRRUS SHIELD DOES NOT ADVANCE TOO
RAPIDLY EAST THROUGH 21Z...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE
PRESENT FOR AN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE THE CASE ONLY IF REMAINING CINH IS REMOVED
AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS BEFORE THICKER CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THIS AREA.
MD #5 http://i44.tinypic.com/24yy3jc.gif
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NM THROUGH W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
VALID
SERN NM THROUGH PARTS OF WRN TX ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION. IF STORMS DEVELOP...SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL WILL
BE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF TRENDS BEGIN
TO SUGGEST INITIATION IS IMMINENT...A WW WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS
OF THIS AREA.
DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE JUST W OF AMARILLO SWWD INTO
EXTREME SERN NM THEN SWD TO JUST E OF FORT STOCKTON. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE E OF THIS BOUNDARY. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S UNDERNEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG SURFACE
HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE FROM 3500 TO 4000 J/KG. LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF AND W OF THE
DRYLINE WHERE DEEP MIXING IS OCCURRING. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
SHOULD MOVE EWD AND INTENSIFY AS THEY INTERCEPT THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KT AND
MODERATE WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND SHEAR ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT GIVEN SHEAR THROUGH A
DEEPER LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO EXIST.