CHASE CASE 14

[Brandon Ivey]

Ahh man, the 18Z is already out. I was at work today and did not get the chance to post on the 15Z so, I am going to post on that before I take a look or read posts that related to the 18Z information.

15Z I am leaving Wichita at 11:00AM and heading west on highway 54 to Greensburg for the 18Z update. I should arrive in town about the time the 18Z information is out. I still like the SW Kansas area but may move a little north. Greensburg will allow me to head up to Hays on 183, Garden City on 50/400, Liberal on 54, or down into Woodward, OK going south on 183. I like western Kansas and northwest Oklahoma so I am moving into position to play both regions.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Yeah, this looks like a pretty sharp dryline. And the bulge looks to be aimed more toward the OK panhandle. I may need to duck south here in a bit as well. In good position to go either direction at this point, I guess.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

18Z I see two good areas to target with the 18Z update. One would be up near the warm front and east of the SFC Low. The second would be along the dryline bulge that is currently forming in the TX Pan. I think I am staying put in Greensburg, KS for now. I like the moist axis that is trying to poke up into SW Kansas (low 70 dews in western Oklahoma) the the thermal axis is cutting across the dryline (helping to create the bulge) 90/37 and a 87/33 out there! This is all pointing to Liberal, KS right now, but I am going to stay put for now. I would expect this area to fire first along the dryline.

Anyone notice that southern cell ENE of Mcpherson that looks to be surface based now? I wonder what that thing is doing in terms of storm reports. The morning elevated crap has also left an outflow boundary across the Salina area. Not really a target, but I just thought I would mention it for anyone in eastern Kansas that is out of position to play further west. Might get a good show with that cell.

KDDC sounding looks good although it would be nice to see a more backed surface wind (i.e. SE), but the dryline bulge should help to back the winds later on in SW Kansas. Cap should be no problem with continued heating and the moist axis moving in that general direction!

KLBF has less instability but more shear. Nice hodograph. If I would have left Wichita ealier I would be playing the warm front about ~20-30 miles east of the SFC low. This would also allow me to get away from the tripple point and jump south to play the dryline if things got messy up there.

KAMA has pretty weak, veering, unidirectional flow below 500mb, but the dryline is knocking on the door of this reporting station, so I would only take that with a grain of salt. Rich moisture is sitting off to the east and this area could be be good as well, I would expect a big HP or two down in this region.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Anyone notice that southern cell ENE of Mcpherson that looks to be surface based now?

Yep ... I was looking at this storm too. There must be enough winds feeding it from the south to maintain supercell organization on that one. I do wonder what it's doing, it's right behind a whole heckuva lot of elevated crud.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm screaming south on I-35, still expecting to reach Ottawa, KS, about 21Z. From what I'm seeing on the satellite and obs the general area between Wichita and Emporia looks to be a interesting combination of boundary and advecting moisture that I can reasonably get to while there's still a few hours of light.

So as of now, 18:30Z, I'm aiming for leaving Emporia at 22Z after a necessities stop, Newton at 23Z, and thence west-southwest to Turon, KS, for 00Z, unless something grabs me on the way.

 

[Paul Austin]

15z: OK, time to drag my lazy self out of bed and get checked out before I have to pay for another night. I still like my position, but I'm liking an area further south along the prominent OFB coursing through OK and nearing the Nrn TX pan. Td's in the low 70's, Tdd's near 10F or lower, a little extra lift from the OFB, a hint toward a DL bulge just w of AMA - all good signs. I'll drive on down to Forgan, OK, a place I've never visited in rl, and set up camp near the front of that tongue of moisture and sfc convergence. I should have decent positioning options from there.

Aside: I don't think you could go wrong with a target of central to southern IA either - plenty of moisture, backed sfc winds, WF lift, upper dynamics. I am also intrigued by the transverse rolls up in nw KS - looks like the air up there could be recovering quite well - even so-so moisture, probably less of a capping issue.

 

[Brian Stertz]

18z shows the dryline sharpening from SW Kansas into the TX Panhandle and a pretty healthy cap at DDC on that sounding. I have kind of mixed out in the afternoon heat but am pretty sure that the dryline may begin to chill out and hold in position. I may drift up to Kansas but not until there is some real hard target to get me on the move. I guess we'll see if that cap can pop and bring this chaser mass into mas convergence. I will stay put in Perryton TX for now.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

Well, I've watched my movie, left the cinema in Lubbock, and am a bit more upbeat about the southern target looking at soundings. CU slightly bubbling in the area, but nothing imminent though. Winds are backing a little down here, and the sounding from Amarillo looks good despite it being a little further north than my location There doesn't seem to be much going on on Vis Sat up there so I'll hold on down here some more. I'm going to stick where I am in Lubbock, perhaps moving to the North side for easy access out of the city.


Total chase miles today... aproximately 5

 

[Matt Gingery]

Hint: Sunset is around 0130 Z. . .

 

[Paul Austin]

18z

18z: I'll drop on down to Elmwood, OK to improve my road options into OK. I still like this general area of conv. and higher Td's. And I still like n/nw KS near the NE border and c/sc IA. Nice clearing in both areas with backed sfc winds to the n and lesser capping make these decent targets, just not mine in this case.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Just arrived in Hays...looks like a good place to be. Upper level support is not ideal, but a distinct dryline bulge is apparent on the surface analysis, and the junk off to the east appears to have dropped an outflow boundary. I really wish there was not a surface-obs dead zone in western Kansas.

Oh, and that MD in northern Vermont looks promising too...

 

[Matt Gingery]

***URGENT UPDATE***​

19Z Supplemental Update

MD #3

http://i44.tinypic.com/i6bafr.gif

Visible Satellite Of The Discussion Area As Of 19z

http://i40.tinypic.com/vrdou9.jpg


What will you decide to do? Will you hang in SW Kansas and NW Oklahoma? Or, will you decide to hang out and wait for something to pop along the dryline in W Texas? Many possibilities with this synoptic situation. Be sure to choose wisely. Many places along the frontal boundary from W. Kansas on up into the Great Lakes region have the likelyhood of thunderstorm development. There are several MD's left to post, as well as tons of information WW's and radar imagery that may have you kicking yourselves for leaving a spot that ends up being on the final reports list.

This will be the only supplemental update tonight. There will be a 20z supplemental tomorrow early, and later the full 21z update. Good luck to all, and Happy Chasing!!!!!

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Wow incredible cu field in N Kansas. My dad and I are going to take our chances and blast north on US283 to WaKeeney or possibly even Hill City from Dodge City. It is about 95 miles or so to WaKeeney so we can get their in about an hour and a half so at about 2030z or just at 21z we will arrive.

Edit: We have filled up in Dodge and are now just north of town on our way north to WaKeeney.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Slowly drifting East on hwy 64 now, will likely hold near 64/283 intersection near Rosston, OK.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Hmm...18Z profiler looked good in Hillsboro, probably the reason that tail-end charlie looks supercellular. So, sitting in Woodward, I won't be able to get up there. I see the dryline bulge people are talking about, but it doesn't look all that sharp. Shear looks better to the north and east in NE KS and in NE, but the 18Z DDC sounding looked pretty capped...however, the growing boundary layer is superadiabatic! Strong mixing going on there then. Still, I don't know if there will be enough surface heating to break through that bad boy. For now, I'll stay in Woodward. Don't have enough reason to move.

If anything, it won't be the nose of the dryline bulge that goes up first, but to the east and south of the nose of the bulge, where the mesoscale low pressure area due to the relative warmth will cause winds south&east of the bulge to back more (i.e., where I am ), increasing convergence. I'll sit here and hope fireworks get launched soon.