CHASE CASE 14

[Dick McGowan]

Do you have any surface obs for 20z Matt? I was headed to Quinter, KS and should have made it there by 20z. There is currently a storm within 15 miles of me by 2010z near Grainfield, KS in Northern Gove/Southern Sheridan counties, so I'll stick with it for now.

 

[John Erwin]

20Z update: Well that's got me twitchin' to head NE somewhat out of Liberal ,KS and head towards Greensburg. I'll re-evaluate when I reach Minneola,KS (main 21Z products should be out by then). While a play as far south as Woodward, OK would not be out of the question for me I think I'll now abandon any thought of any TX activity for me.

Satellite is showing distinct CU formation along a N-S line that transects Meade, KS, so I think getting east of that line is a good move. Also notice the bloom over what looks like somewhere between Kinsley and Greensburg; things are getting ready to pop.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Based on the 12z data and discussion I'm going to position along the western edge of the OFB on the KS/OK border. Target for today: Liberal, KS

Based on the 20z data I'm going to head northeast out of Liberal and see what that cell over Dodge City, KS is doing.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Hopping on the storm blowing up in SW KS, just a short drive for me from the OK panhandle.

 

[Dean Baron]

heading west out of Pratt, KS towards the cell near DDC, hoping it doesnt die out before I get there...

 

[Jeff Duda]

Damn! I'm to the NW of the cell that went up in NW OK. Depending on storm motions, which don't appear to be too fast, I can either try to race to the east of it or let it go by and drive in behind it. For now I'll bust arse as fast as I can east down Hwy 412 to try to get ahead of it.

 

[Jason Branz]

Gonna hop on the cell in SE Ford county and see what happens.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Hanging close enough to the cell east of DDC to hop on it if I need to. Otherwise, keeping an eye on the DL. I'm still concerned that if things go fast they will become linear - as that last sounding appeared nearly unidirectional. We'll see, I guess. It's cool to see an isolated cell pop up ahead of the DL, though.

What happened to the earlier convection in central KS? ... Poof.

 

[Kurt Hulst]

I had moved to near Rosston so the cell in SW KS look the most appealing as of now I think I will be headed NNE into KS.

 

[Matt Gingery]

Do you have any surface obs for 20z Matt? I was headed to Quinter, KS and should have made it there by 20z. There is currently a storm within 15 miles of me by 2010z near Grainfield, KS in Northern Gove/Southern Sheridan counties, so I'll stick with it for now.

Here you go. . .


20Z Surface Analysis:

Central Plains http://i44.tinypic.com/2w2lzew.gif


Tornado Watch Just Issued

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN KANSAS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF NORTH
PLATTE NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES WEST OF CLINTON OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE .

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

Argh. I can't resist the pull of the cell blossoming on the east side of Dodge City. But I wonder if I'm going to regret leaving the vicinity of congested cumulus over Liberal. I'm leaving Meade and heading NE to Bucklin, KS and will adjust from there to follow the cell, or monitor what builds S or SW of it. I should be there before 3PM/21Z.

These hourly updates are great, Matt. Thanks!

 

[Paul Austin]

20z

20z: I'm quite happy the southern cap is weakening. Looks like the cell near Thomas, OK is sfc-based and getting well-organized. I have been known in rl on occasion to bolt after the early cell, especially ones with excellent access to the deep moisture. This cell is tempting, as it's right on the boundary/moisture axis, drifting 10mph or slower to the west, and threatening to pinch off the moisture flow to the nw where I'm sitting. But I already resisted the urge to take off after the early stuff up in nrn KS, so I'll resist the same urge for this cell, though it could end up being the show of the day.

I'm gonna head back up through Meade, KS toward Minneola, KS to check out the cell developing in nc Clark county. It'll take about 1.5 hrs, should I stay on this course, so I'll keep a watchful eye w/sw toward the visible towers and further s/se via radar/sat over the next hr or so.

Aside: How about that crisp n-s oriented outflow boundary in eastern MO. The cloud band looks almost like one huge transverse roll radiating outward. There also appears to be a total solar eclipse in progress across parts of SD/ND

 

[Matt Gingery]

Paul Austin

There also appears to be a total solar eclipse in progress across parts of SD/ND [/QUOTE]



I got a good laugh out of that!! Yeah, looks like GOES may have had some technical problems on that loop. . .

 

[Paul Austin]

Here you go. . .


20Z Surface Analysis:

Central Plains http://i44.tinypic.com/2w2lzew.gif

Wow, 86/75 near Alva, OK - hello, moisture! DDC area not cut off yet.

 

[Chad Cowan]

I'm sitting in DDC... 12z sounding showed 5000+ CAPE and current sfc obs show a se'rly wind gusting to 30 kts.

I'm on the cell just south of Dodge and liking the chances for today. If this cell craps out it looks like there will be one or two more right behind it based on the the tCu on sat. and faint returns on radar. I have to admit, I was about to jump ship and head north with the other faithless chasers. Not knowing how late in the season this scenario is means not knowing if 13C H700 temps mean game over.

Edit: Just saw the updated sfc obs and wow, this must be one deeeep sfc low for this time of the year, 35 kt gusts at DDC. Moisture is aplenty, anyone else see the 90/82 reading on the OK/AR border??