CHASE CASE 14

[Buddy W Bradley]

Holding put in Hennessey, Ok for the time. Very humid. Windy. Feels kinda stormy

Hopefully storms to my southwest get there act together and produce in this area.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I've continued my slow drift North on hwy 283, I am now chillin at the 283/160 intersection; I have storms trying to form about 20 miles to my West, I am trying to get a feel for exact storm motion, I am hoping I can use the ENE nature of hwy 54 to my advantage...

 

[Matt Gingery]

***21Z UPDATE***​

VISIBLE SATELLITE

CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i42.tinypic.com/25hlnxz.jpg

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i40.tinypic.com/105cwn5.jpg

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i43.tinypic.com/2r2x7dj.jpg

MID MISSISSIPPI: http://i39.tinypic.com/107nuok.jpg


SURFACE ANALYSIS

CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i42.tinypic.com/2wno8hw.gif

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i44.tinypic.com/b6o9lc.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i44.tinypic.com/v4nt5g.gif

MID MISSISSIPPI: http://i43.tinypic.com/2qw3qf4.gif

WIND PROFILER: http://i41.tinypic.com/25aouwm.gif

RADAR COMPOSITE

CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i40.tinypic.com/2niz2wj.gif

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i43.tinypic.com/dr8e10.gif

UPPER MIDWEST: http://i40.tinypic.com/nzn0h0.gif

UPPER MISSISSIPPI: http://i39.tinypic.com/17qww9.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

MD #6: http://i40.tinypic.com/2gtrmh0.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 PM CDT

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NEB...SCENTRAL/SERN SD...NWRN IA AND SWRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID

WE ARE MONITORING THE AREA FOR INCREASING TRENDS AND A POTENTIAL FOR
A WW BY 22Z.

INCREASING SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION IN ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NCENTRAL
NEB/SCENTRAL SD. MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES RISING TO AROUND
2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS AS THEY MOVE ENEWD INTO SCENTRAL SD.

FARTHER EAST...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SLOWLY
RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NERN NEB/NWRN IA AND FAR
SERN SD ALONG WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY SUPPORT SURFACE
BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 15 KTS/ IN THIS AREA AS EVIDENT
BY 20Z MRR PROFILER AND FSD VWP DATA SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IF SURFACE
BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP/INTENSIFY GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.

NEW TORNADO WATCH JUST ISSUED​

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF AMARILLO
TEXAS TO 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Looks like I may have nailed this chase! Currently in great position looking SW at a monster supercell near Hill City. Possibly watching a tornado?

 

[Jason Branz]

Aargh...shoulda gone north! Eh...ok...hoping for a consolation prize, we're dropping south to the new cell south of Meade. Still good moisture down here so hopefully it won't fizzle.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I'm going to micro adjust to Sublette, Kansas. I'm feeling the dry air breathing down my neck and want to get into a little better moisture. Plus, I like the road options there.

Missed the last update, but I probably would have stayed in Sublette, so I'm going to try and make it to Ness City, KS. Should be there in an hour and 45 minutes.

... roughly 2245Z.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

I'm sitting great here, finally one of those storms to my West has taken off, it's about 15 Miles to my SW, in fact I am under the anvil here, I'll likely just stay here setup the tripod and watch it grow; horrible grid in this area, so I'll likey stay on this hwy use it (hwy 160) to 183 as my main option. This thing is about 40 miles from tapping into the core of the moist axis, as long as the storms to my SE don't modify its inflow to much, it should provide for a decent chase.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Hmm, shoulda probably gone north but I don't think all is lost. The first cell near DDC obviously fizzled, but dropping south to pick up the cells near the OK/KS border. Still plenty of daylight though and looks like the dryline is starting to fire.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Have had some fierce driving to get into position and have finally reached Bucklin KS with a cell that appears to be cycling up to my north-northeast. Time to move up and stay up on this supercell jr. as it moves slowly towards the Kinsley-St.John area.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

CU field looking really good down here in the Southern Panhandle. Have now got weak radar returns in Hockley County west of Lubbock, and Bailey County, North West. I'll move north one county anticipating that this thing in Hockley County might just take off. It's a little ahead of the other cells so I might end up falling back onto other storms behind if this fizzles. If it doesn't it should be in a better position to really get going....

Repositioning to Abernathy.

 

[Dean Baron]

I turned around before I got to DDC as I watched the storm die, but now I am eyeing that cell down along the OK/KS border, it looks like its about to explode. I'm going to get east as the dryline in western KS is advancing east and I definately dont want to be in DDC right now. 90/64? No thanks! Plus winds are beginning to veer as the dry line approaches. So, I will move back east towards my original target of PRATT, KS, I may drop south a bit where dp's are a bit higher but I will be watching the storm along the state line to see how it evolves, I may end going after it if it holds together.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

I followed the first storm (that tried to fire) up to Kinsley, KS and watched it struggle with the cap. I am going to continue up 183 and get into the area of better LCL's. I don't like that 90/64 at DDC (26 Tdd ), plus new convection is forming over Western Ness County. The supercell over Graham County looks like an HP monster so I am not even going to try and mess with catching that. Have fun up there with it guys. Get east of it and look back in the inflow notch for an extra brief tornado or two!

My plan is to head up 183 to Hays (about an hour drive according to mapquest) so I will be there by 22Z and still have plenty of daylight left. This way I can play the development in Western Ness County or I can drop back south and pick up on the storm developing along the KS/OK border with a little light left to spare. Just going to play "safe zone" for now.

 

[Josh Richardson]

Slowly drifting SW now towards Meade, only a few minutes away from there and going to sit back and watch this cell hopefully explode.

 

[Brandon Ivey]

Just realized Hays is 90/66. I don't know why I did not pay attention to that earlier. I am still going to Hays, but will play the developing convection in W. Ness County and catch it interacting with the warm front north of I-70 in a couple of hours.

 

[John Erwin]

Okay, time to get to work. I'm currently sitting in Minneola watching that tower go up SW of my position; looking like it's somewhere between Meade and the KS/OK border. Time to commit to something, so I'm crossing my fingers and am going to head back towards Meade, KS and hope that it cracks that cap wide open. All the ingredients seem to be in place so I feel my chances are good at seeing something today.

Good luck for those guys playing the north target; things are getting hairy up there!