CHASE CASE 14

[Michael P. Morris]

Looks like a nice lee cyclogenesis case. I would target Dodge City as of 00Z.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I'll hang out in Hays KS for the night and make gameday adjustments from there. Need some model data to be certain of a hard target at this point.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Well - it appears eastern Kansas is out since it is felt that the convective cluster there now is stabilizing the region. So best bet would probably be closer to the TP in eastern Colorado somewhere, I'm thinking for now. I'm headed to Burlington and can make adjustments from there as necessary.

 

[David Wolfson]

I'm nervous about the cap in the southern Plains. The other play is north with the better winds. I'll go for that and overnight at Burnsville, MN, south of Minneapolis. If I come to my senses in the morning with the 12Z data, I'll be flying south on I-35 toward KC and southeast KS in time for afternoon action.

 

[Jim Tang]

I'll camp out at Pratt, KS. SW KS is at the northern extent of the thermonuc cap, and is at the southern extent of the best mid level flow. Hopefully that front can lift a bit northward or at least remain stationary. If it doesn't of course I'll have to move south.

 

[John Erwin]

Based on the 00Z data I'm fairly certain this will play out west of my initial target, however I'm making a streak towards Hays, KS; of course things may change before I get there but I figure that heading will put me in a good position when the 12Z data comes out. Will likely stop overnight in Elm Creek, NE and re-assess in the morning.

 

[Dean Baron]

Im a little late in this one but I didnt think I would be available for the live chase tonight, but now it turns out I will be home. Based on the 0Z data, I will sit in PRATT, KANSAS for now. I wont make any adjustments until the 12z data comes in.

 

[Matt Gingery]

12Z DATA

SURFACE PLOTS:

MIDWEST: http://i42.tinypic.com/2uzz39c.gif

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i39.tinypic.com/i1ff3s.gif

VISIBLE SATELLITE​

CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i39.tinypic.com/2cgol0w.jpg

NORTHERN PLAINS: http://i39.tinypic.com/2jdnc6o.jpg

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i43.tinypic.com/2wec5dz.jpg

MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY: http://i40.tinypic.com/2jagkex.jpg

RADAR COMPOSITE​

CENTRAL PLAINS: http://i42.tinypic.com/t5kphw.gif

NORTHERN PLAINS: http://i40.tinypic.com/eg70gy.gif

SOUTHERN PLAINS: http://i43.tinypic.com/5o87wp.gif

MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY: http://i43.tinypic.com/2s6auyg.gif

UPPER AIR CHARTS​

850mb: http://i40.tinypic.com/am74mw.gif

700mb: http://i43.tinypic.com/6s9wtl.gif

500mb: http://i41.tinypic.com/23kt307.gif

300mb: http://i42.tinypic.com/23nyhj.gif

Synoptic Chart: http://i40.tinypic.com/2r5rkoo.gif

Wind Profiler: http://i42.tinypic.com/2m801n7.gif

SOUNDINGS​

DENVER: http://i43.tinypic.com/260v8e9.gif

AMARILLO: http://i40.tinypic.com/2yzcy2s.gif

LITTLEROCK: http://i39.tinypic.com/21njgxt.gif

DODGE CITY: http://i40.tinypic.com/317gjyd.gif

North Platte: http://i43.tinypic.com/r9mret.gif

MIDLAND: http://i43.tinypic.com/34nii4w.gif

OKLAHOMA CITY: http://i41.tinypic.com/ojmf0l.gif

GREEN BAY: http://i39.tinypic.com/28rl7w0.gif

NEW ORLEANS: http://i40.tinypic.com/2n9je9x.gif

CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS​

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM W TX NWD TO NEB....

...CENTRAL PLAINS AREA...
WITHIN THE BROAD WRN U.S. TROUGH...DIFFUSE SPEED MAXIMA ARE EJECTING
NEWD FROM SRN NV TOWARD CO...WHILE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DIG SEWD FROM NRN CA TO AZ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM NRN WI AND NRN LOWER MI SWWD
ACROSS IA/ERN NEB/NRN KS TO A LEE CYCLONE IN SE CO.
OVERNIGHT/ONGOING STORMS HAVE CREATED A PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND ASSOCIATED MESOHIGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE SWWD TOWARD
ERN/CENTRAL OK AND SW KS.
THE KS/OK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS NW KS
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S OF THE FRONT AND W/SW OF THE OUTFLOW IN WRN KS/WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLE BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES
WILL LIKELY REACH 4000-5000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. A BELT OF
25-35 KT LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM TX NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/WRN KS...AND THE ERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER /30-40 KT/ MID
LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN KS/NEB
LATER TODAY. THE RESULTANT COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY GROW INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S ACROSS NW KS AND NEB BY
TONIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE
INTO W TX. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ALONG
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN OK...THOUGH WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LIMIT
STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY.

...OH/MS VALLEYS TO THE GULF COAST AND SE ATLANTIC STATES...
SEVERAL SMALL SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS ARE PRESENT WITHIN THE BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH FROM WV/OH/IND SSWWD TO THE NRN GULF COAST...WHILE
CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY LEFT A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
INDIANA TO WRN TN/ERN AR. RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES AND STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS BROAD AREA.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...THOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS.

P.S. ARE ANY OF YOU TRAPPED IN THE MAJOR WINTER STORM? IF SO, RELAX AND TAKE YOUR TIME AND ENJOY THE GREAT CHASE CASE!!!!

15z UPDATE WILL BE TOMORROW MORNING. . .

 

[Buddy W Bradley]

My initial target will be Stillwater OK. and then west-northwest from there. after reviewing 12z data. (Haven't looked over yet)

 

[Brandon Ivey]

I slept in my own bed last night here in Wichita, KS and am going to stay put until the 10AM - Noon timeframe. I like the Southwest Kansas and Northwest Oklahoma region and I am really interested in that area of horizontal roll clouds that extend across that area. That will be something to keep an eye on as the day wears on! I think those 850mb winds are going to back some later in the day with the approach of that subtle short-wave further to the west. This will lead to a little better low level shear/turning. Not really targeting a particular town right now for a target area, just going to wait on the next update and see if this dryline/cold front moves closer to my backyard.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Satellite looks pretty interesting. Outflow boundaries are evident in SW Kansas, along with what appear to be gravity wave formations. I'm moving east now from Burlington into Kansas, and plan to drop to the south closer to DDC area ... that sounding is looking dandy down there. Will continue checking data on the road.

 

[Dean Baron]

I'll hold tight in Pratt. But I am looking at dropping south in to Oklahoma to possibly play my first dryline.

 

[Jeremy Perez]

To my inexperienced eye, I really like the look of the Dodge City sounding & the presence of outflow boundaries setting up for the front in SW Kansas. As others have mention, those transverse rolls look really nice too. I'm going to head from Elk City, OK toward Greensburg, KS by way of Woodward, OK. I'll stop in Woodward at 9:30 am to check the 15Z update and adjust from there.

 

[David Wolfson]

Three cheers for the Interstate highways. After digesting the 12Z data I'm on I-35 south from Minneapolis with necessary stops and fast food only. Southeast KS is promising, with the best pressure falls, so my target is Chanute, KS. I should be passing through Ottawa by about 21Z.

 

[John Erwin]

Spent last night in Elm Creek, NE (slept in my vehicle). After a quick look at the 12Z data I'm still feeling good about heading south towards Hays, KS, although I plan on deviating west from there depending on what I see from the 15Z update.

I still need to digest a bit more of the 12Z data before I understand all the boundary issues in play here but I'll be on the road within an hour.