Paul Redmond
EF2
Since the drought in texas is officially over, is anyone willing to look into their crystal balls and speculate on an active fall chase season, given all the moisture that will likely stay in place.
Chances of an active fall chase season in the lower plains
- Thread starter Paul Redmond
- Start date
Jeff Snyder
EF5
I'd give the southern plains a 50% chance of having a more active than usual fall. 
Sadly enough, that's all I think I can see regarding autumn season forecast. Anecdotally, I haven't seen the drought-vs-wet seasonal predictor work well for the fall chase season. In the spring, it seems that drier-than-normal conditions tend to create environments not favorable for southern plains tornado days, while the opposite seems true for wetter-than-normal conditions (again, this is purely from experience). I haven't necessarily seen that work too well for the fall.
Sadly enough, that's all I think I can see regarding autumn season forecast. Anecdotally, I haven't seen the drought-vs-wet seasonal predictor work well for the fall chase season. In the spring, it seems that drier-than-normal conditions tend to create environments not favorable for southern plains tornado days, while the opposite seems true for wetter-than-normal conditions (again, this is purely from experience). I haven't necessarily seen that work too well for the fall.
