Another Chase Case! #9

[Brian Stertz]

Wow just saw the SRH was already 600+ here splitting the sounding totals between TOP and SGF....and a STRONG wave approaching during peak heating. A juicy set up and should be at the very least a MDT with 25% hatched TOR. I will sink a little bit south to Parsons KS and hold out there for the nice juice coming up from Oklahoma and a strongly sheared space across SE Kansas. I smell tornadoes today.

 

[Marc Austin]

15Z Update

I know it's late, but you'll have all day tomorrow to ponder over these observations. Here with go with the 15Z Obs.

15Z Observations

Surface Obs.
Southern Plains
Middle Miss. Valley
Central Plains
High Plains

Visible Satellite Images:
Middle Miss. Valley
Central Plains
High Plains

Radar Images:
Southern Plains
Northern Gulf Coast Region
High Plains
Middle Miss. Valley
Central Plains


Good luck everyone!

 

[Brian Stertz]

Deep moisture advecting into SE Kansas has me grinning...especially with the dryline mixing east rather quickly. Think all the parameters are here for me to score in SE Kansas where my luck in RL is very good. Holding tight in Parsons KS...can already feel the airmass changes. Bring it on !!

 

[Jason Branz]

Dang that dry air is mixing east quick. Considering the 500mb flow today, we're packing up and leaving SLN and heading toward Emporia. Lots of deep moisture is streaming northward...lookin' good so far.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Hanging tight in Topeka. I'm actually tempted to nudge east and maybe north a bit, but I'm tired of sitting under a cloud deck, and it looks like that's finally about to lift here. So I'll just stick around and wait for the next model run.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

Looks like its drying a bit here-so going to head into the moisture and head forabout halfway to Tulsa,OK--say Big Cabin area.

 

[Joe Karel]

I was chillin in Wichita KS, from the initial update and I think I'm just gonna wait there.

 

[Dean Baron]

Im still really liking northeast and east central Kansas. I think I will dive a bit south of my originaly target of Ottawa, KS to where the surface temps are in the 70's, that surface temp of 66 in Topeka is making me a bit nervous about being under the cloud deck for so long. I'll jump 2 counties south to Moran, KS with routes going N/S/E/W if needed. With it only being 15z i'm happy with where I am and where the cold front is. Should be in good position for initiation. Surface winds are still nicely backed in the eastern 1/3 of Kansas but start veering once you get in to central KS.

 

[Derek Weston]

Sitting in Junction City KS... have to make a decision. Don't want to play the warm front, though, think there might be some opportunity. (even on the low) Dry line is favored.... so, dropping two hours south to Augusta Kansas, just east of Wichita. Like the clearly slightly west of here. Still think further on south could be decent too.

 

[Paul Austin]

Target: I-35 and Route 412 in OK, N of OKC

EDIT: 13 year old daughter is over this weekend and chasing this one with me. Going to take her input into our target location and see how she does!

Excellent! Never too early to start. Of course, now I'll have to suffer the potential humiliation of being out-chased by a 13-yr-old .

 

[Paul Austin]

I think I'll stay where I am and enjoy lunch for now. I'm intrigued by a remote possibility for some late action up in the Mitchell, SD area. The air is pretty worked-over, Td's marginal at best, and surface temps still in the mid-50's. But the clearing SW of the northern MCS is nice, and with some subsidence on the back side (hopefully west of this target area), temps could rise quickly. It's not really my brain drawn to the area but more my gut. And the prospect of getting on storms away from Chaser Convergence Land is appealing. Still, it's a long shot. Mitchell is about 4.75 hours away, so I'll have to decide at the 18z update. In the mean time, I'll keep my eye on the nice clearing developing to my immediate west and watch developing outflow boundaries for focus areas. Hopefully, 18z sat images and surface data give me a clearer picture. For now, I'll stay put.

The dry line looks to be on the move, but that capped air in central OK would certainly keep me north nearer the KS border. I do see a little potential that far south right along the dry line late in the day, especially if CAPE can pool south of the dry line bulge.

I also thought the 12z Little Rock sounding and wind fields were interesting, but without a focusing mechanism and all the cloud cover, the action should stay west of there.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Something tells me that there will be action in South Central KS. Anyway I like my first target Hebron,Ne: high dews and nice shear up there. Planning to move towards Beatrice or south after have seen 18Z data. I love this kind of setup.

 

[Jason Boggs]

I think I'm going to mosey up to about 35 miles south of Topeka, KS. Maybe around Waverly won't be a bad move.

 

[Matthew Fischer]

well as usual i'm late to the party but i would stop in juction city,ks and wait for the dry line/ cold front if the the low slows to play that area!

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

After deciding to head towards Wichita we are heading back east on US54 to Chanute, KS.