Michael O'Keeffe
Going to head to Wichita and wait for later data and either head north or east.
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Another Chase Case! #9
- Thread starter Marc Austin
- Start date
Randall Cooper
EF2
I'm gonna stick close to Kansas City for now, and wait for new data.
JF Massicotte
EF3
I'll start the day in Salina, KS. Winds are alredy backed and I want to stay not too far from that dryline bulge I do expect in KS. Right now I consider playing the dryline and warm sector.
Patrick Martin
EF4
I'm going to start the day for this case in Salina KS. I really like the divergence over nc KS, the potential for triple point play in NE, but I want to keep the dryline in play this early.
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
After looking over 12z data I find myself nearly drooling at the tornado potential today. Impressive shear combined with a very rich moisture axis has the makings of a tornado-fest. With plenty of insolation already underway across eastern Kansas I think that is where I will focus my chase today. I will head northeast out of Tulsa up 1-44 to Miami (I don't know why its called Miama when its spelled Miami) and then north to Columbus, KS, where I have good road options in all directions.
With such strong mid-level flow I want to be well east of the dryline and let the storms come to me. I expect things to get cranking by 20-22z and quickly pushing east into eastern KS and western MO.
With such strong mid-level flow I want to be well east of the dryline and let the storms come to me. I expect things to get cranking by 20-22z and quickly pushing east into eastern KS and western MO.
Paul Austin
I see decent targets from central TX all the way up into SD, depending on what happens with the dry line, existing cloud deck, and ongoing convection/precip up in NE. I like the backing surface winds further north, and there's a nice plume of moisture feeding up toward SD with a strong LLJ already in place. Upper level winds are strong here with nice diffluence aloft across most of the plains states. Further south, a very sharp, well-defined dry line is in place with slightly veered but confluent surface winds. With clearing skies, CAPE could develop nicely here, but a modestly strong cap could play a role in storm development and timing. Central KS seems like a clear target with a dry line bulge already hinted at, strong diffluent upper winds, nice clear skies, convergence along the boudary to the north, backed surface winds, and a strong LLJ just east of the I35 corridor. So where shall I begin the day...does anybody have a three- or four-sided coin?
I think I'll park myself near Woodward, OK. That sharp dry line and more easterly upper winds attracts me. The south could cap bust, so I still have an option to get up into KS. I was very tempted to start the day way up in N NE just to break with my normal tendencies. If the warm front lifts quickly and the worked over air is replaced with more rich return flow air, I think a surprise cell or two could develop up into SD, but I'm going to stick with the more widespread available options down here in OK. Scratch that. I'm gonna play my gut and start out in Grand Island, NE. Since the worked over air will take a little while to recover, I'll just go back to sleep for a few hours and see what's cookin' around 15z or so.
I think I'll park myself near Woodward, OK. That sharp dry line and more easterly upper winds attracts me. The south could cap bust, so I still have an option to get up into KS. I was very tempted to start the day way up in N NE just to break with my normal tendencies. If the warm front lifts quickly and the worked over air is replaced with more rich return flow air, I think a surprise cell or two could develop up into SD, but I'm going to stick with the more widespread available options down here in OK. Scratch that. I'm gonna play my gut and start out in Grand Island, NE. Since the worked over air will take a little while to recover, I'll just go back to sleep for a few hours and see what's cookin' around 15z or so.
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Simon Brewer
EF3
Wow! Icredible dryline on this day; look at the 700mb cold air advection over Colorado, New Mexico, western Kansas, and Texas Panhandle at 12z! Dryline is already mixing eastward this early in the morning! I expect a large region of divergence aloft as that upper-level jet left-exit-region moves over eastern Kansas and Missouri. The trough should dig a little further south, because of the incredible mid-level cold-air-advection over the Rockies and High Plains. The OUN and FWD soundings show a decent CAP, but TOP and SGF show a weak CAP. The inversion over Oklahoma and north Texas should advect northeastward through the morning holding off convection over southeastern Kansas and Southwest Missouri. I don't know if the inversion can develop near the warm front... storms might fire there soon.
I would expect a later initiation further south, but not too late with the incredible trough digging into the region. Storm motion should be kinda fast with the fast mid-level winds; possibly 40-50 mph to the northeast, so I want to be way ahead of the storms when initiation first occurs to allow time for storms to organize.
I guess you could play storms further north closer to the warm front near Topeka and then drop south as the day progesses.
I'm targeting the southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri border north of Joplin, MO. I guess Joplin looks like the place to sit until more data comes in... I can always go north or south from that location.
I would expect a later initiation further south, but not too late with the incredible trough digging into the region. Storm motion should be kinda fast with the fast mid-level winds; possibly 40-50 mph to the northeast, so I want to be way ahead of the storms when initiation first occurs to allow time for storms to organize.
I guess you could play storms further north closer to the warm front near Topeka and then drop south as the day progesses.
I'm targeting the southeastern Kansas/southwestern Missouri border north of Joplin, MO. I guess Joplin looks like the place to sit until more data comes in... I can always go north or south from that location.
From the looks of it, I would probably sit tight in Norman until about 15Z or so, as there are a few interesting features that make me torn about the target.
I would expect an outflow boundary of some sort to set up near I-70 as the dissipating squall line in S. Nebraska finally craps out. That could make a prime focus for convection with the added benefit of being close to the surface low.
However, the upper level winds appear to be more than adequate for significant action in Oklahoma, and I see a subtle confluence line in the southwestern part of the state, roughly from Altus to Wichita Falls, that could serve as a secondary trigger for convection if it holds up.
I would expect an outflow boundary of some sort to set up near I-70 as the dissipating squall line in S. Nebraska finally craps out. That could make a prime focus for convection with the added benefit of being close to the surface low.
However, the upper level winds appear to be more than adequate for significant action in Oklahoma, and I see a subtle confluence line in the southwestern part of the state, roughly from Altus to Wichita Falls, that could serve as a secondary trigger for convection if it holds up.
Verne Carlson
EF5
Based on the 500mb difluence and 800mb surface features I would start with a target of Altus, OK
Thanks for keeping these going guys!
Thanks for keeping these going guys!
Bob Hartig
EF5
I'm starting out in Topeka, even though I'm also starting out in Grand Island. Oh, wait, that's the other new chase. 
Okay, Topeka for this one.
Okay, Topeka for this one.
Jeremy Perez
Supporter
As a newcomer, I really appreciate these chase cases. Thanks for all the effort put into them.
I'll assume we're visiting my wife's family in Elk City when this enticing weather brews up. Seeing this information, I'll say farewell for the day and head out for Tonkawa, OK. I should be there by noon.
I'll assume we're visiting my wife's family in Elk City when this enticing weather brews up. Seeing this information, I'll say farewell for the day and head out for Tonkawa, OK. I should be there by noon.
Taylor Campbell
I'm going to set-up in Pawhuska, OK. I like all the ingredients gathering there for what I feel could be a steak for the night.
Buddy W Bradley
Thanks again guys for keeping these going. They are informative and fun! This is more like a routine chase setup for me. I would be waking up about 6am to look over any new data that had been coming in overnight. (in fact I would have been tracking this system for days with anticipation)!!! I would pick up my partner Brandon about 10am and head to Joplin MO for the 18z update. My best guess is we would be tooling along Hwy 400 between Witchita and Parsons for this one. Only time will tell. But for Now in Springfield MO heading to Joplin about noon.
This is more like a routine chase setup for me. I would be waking up about 6am to look over any new data that had been coming in overnight. (in fact I would have been tracking this system for days with anticipation)!!! I would pick up my partner Brandon about 10am and head to Joplin MO for the 18z update. My best guess is we would be tooling along Hwy 400 between Witchita and Parsons for this one. Only time will tell. But for Now in Springfield MO heading to Joplin about noon.
Jared Orr
EF1
Mmmm... a delicious setup... sorry if the adjective "delicious" creeps anybody out. haha
Anywho, I'm loving the shear throught Kansas... especially around Wichita...strong, but not too strong. Also loving the clearing that's taking place. I think that I'll hop on I-70 and head over to Salina, KS where I can adjust once new info becomes available.
Anywho, I'm loving the shear throught Kansas... especially around Wichita...strong, but not too strong. Also loving the clearing that's taking place. I think that I'll hop on I-70 and head over to Salina, KS where I can adjust once new info becomes available.
Jason Branz
EF2
Let's start out in Salina. My instinct tells me to go farther west, but with that 500mb flow I don't want to get caught too far west.
