Another Chase Case! #9

[Jared Orr]

Is it just me, or does the sfc wind near the dryline in central KS look a little veered?

I like everything else about that spot, but I definately don't want to chase a "train" of storms due to increasingly unidirectional shear. This said, I'm gonna stick with salina or maybe even shift east a bit.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Is it just me, or does the sfc wind near the dryline in central KS look a little veered?

I like everything else about that spot, but I definately don't want to chase a "train" of storms due to increasingly unidirectional shear. This said, I'm gonna stick with salina or maybe even shift east a bit.

The winds are veering there because the dryline is quickly mixing to the east. With the strong mid-level flow and evident dry air intrusion seen on the 12z 700mb analysis I decided to be well east of the dryline. At 15z I am actually on the eastern edge of the deeper moisture (surface) as dewpoints east of me in western MO are in the mid/upper 50s. I expect the moisutre axis to shift east through the day as the system ejects into the Plains and the dryline quickly advances east.

I am still hanging out in Columbus, KS where a little bit of sun is now starting to filter in through the eroding status and cirrus decks.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Dryline is mixing and winds are turning out of the west a bit at my location. Moving east from Altus to Lawton, OK

 

[Patrick Martin]

For the time being, I'm going to move east on I-70 to Topeka, KS, find some lunch, a good wi-fi spot, and see what comes about by the 18z update. This will give me plenty of time to move down into SE KS if need be, but looking back on the upper air maps from the morning has me not wanting to commit to far south just yet.

 

[Jared Orr]

The winds are veering there because the dryline is quickly mixing to the east.

That's funny, Greg, cause I was just about to post a second reply saying that the dryline is probably causing the windshift along and behind it. Thanks for helping clarify!

I'm also agreeing with you to on the moisture axis. I'm starting to like Emporia, KS. That way I can start in good position once stuff starts poppin'.

 

[David Wolfson]

Still hanging in St. Joseph, MO, for lunch. The 15Z picture hasn't changed for me.

 

[mikegeukes]

Sitting in Lamar, Missouri.

 

[Dann Cianca]

Holding tight in Manhattan, Kansas. No real reason to move just yet.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

Still holding tight in Norman at the moment...the dryline appears to be a little more N-S oriented here rather than for the northern target, and there is a little clearing in SW Oklahoma now. At this point I am most likely committed to an Oklahoma chase.

 

[Brian Stertz]

Sitting in Parsons KS and noticing a swelling to the cu field. Looks like the deep moisture is here now and it has become hazy. All set for what looks to be a potentially very active day.

 

[Mike Ridgeway]

For the time being, I'm going to move east on I-70 to Topeka, KS, find some lunch, a good wi-fi spot, and see what comes about by the 18z update. This will give me plenty of time to move down into SE KS if need be, but looking back on the upper air maps from the morning has me not wanting to commit to far south just yet.

I'm thinking the exact same thing, still chilling in Topeka....probably at a truck stop just off of I-70. Lots of time, but will have to make a decision with the 18Z data. Starting to get that antsy feeling but need to be patient.

 

[Matt Gingery]

I am still not quite sure where exactly I should be. Part of me really wants to stay here in McAlester for the duration, and then I also feel good about areas of Nebraska/Iowa. I am going to wait and see what the 18z update holds for us all. I am going to head back towards home and hope something maybe pops along the way, although I doubt it. I should be in Joplin by 18z, and I will just ride HWY 60 back to Ozark. Just not enough information as of yet. Good luck all, I am going to head home and pretty much call it quits. If I am in Joplin by 5:30-6:30 p.m., I should be in Springfield by 7:00 or a bit later. This looks like an event further to the north, and out of my range. Best of luck to everyone up north.

 

[John Farley]

At this point I have only looked at 12Z data, but at this point I am liking southern KS - good directional shear, strong upper winds, and distinct dryline to the SW. I will start out in Wichita, KS.

OK, now I have looked at the 15Z data and think I need to get up closer to the triple point. So I am heading out of Wichita on the turnpike, aiming for somewhere in the I-70 corridor between Topeka and Manhattan. Wouldn't be surprised if I end up even farther north, but will reposition to somewhere in that area for now. This still looks like a good setup.

 

[JF Massicotte]

I'll move east to Topeka, KS, and wait for 18Z update there. Think I still have plenty of time to move N or S from that point.

 

[Dick McGowan]

I'll move east on US 400 to Neodesha, KS. There's a narrow pocket of 70 dews that stretches maybe 75 miles E/W and is oriented N/S from my location and advecting hard northward from OK and into TX. Surface winds should start to back more along the dryline as cyclogenesis is currently underway in NC KS/ SC NE.