Another Chase Case! #9

[Andrea Griffa]

I'm getting over Beatrice,Ne: I keep a South option. I guess Kansas City will be hit by some supercell today.

 

[Nathan Edwards]

It looks like my early morning position around Manhattan is now on the West side of a developing CU field. I need to head east somewhat towards Topeka for now, and perhaps further towards Kansas City. I'm not in the mood for chasing in the metro area itself, so I wouldn't go too far East. Lawrence would be as far as I would go giving a good north/south option avoiding the busiest areas.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Sitting in Chanute after getting some lunch and a gas up. Going to head even further east to Pittsburg, KS to stay ahead of the potential fast moving supercells.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Ok, I'm out, I guessed the case! Thanks for this anyway

 

[Randall Cooper]

I'll move a little north to Platte City, MO, just south of St. Joseph.

 

[Michael P. Morris]

I noticed the dryline was rapidly mixing eastward while I was keeping my eye on Oklahoma, so I decided to hit the road and move northeast along I-44 toward Tulsa. This update came in when I was about an hour from Tulsa, so I am going to continue and go towards SE Kansas...perhaps Coffeyville. Should be arriving at around 20-21Z. Hopefully I won't be late!

 

[Matt Gingery]

I feel really confident about my current position Columbus, KS, and I like how things are beginning to shape up. The 18z surface plot shows the dryline pushing through the I-35 corridor attm. The visible satellite image shows clouds are beginning to clear out across eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. A nice cu field is quickly developing on the back edge of the thicker cloud deck and this area will likely be where storms initiate in the next couple of hours or so.

Another feature I am keeping an eye on is the belt of mid-level clouds extending northeast from western Texas into northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. This is obviously evidence of a strong mid-level jet pushing through the southern Plains, and I expect the best storms to develop on the LFQ of this jet feature....across southeast Kansas south into northeast Oklahoma.

Yes sir, I notice that belt too, it looks very significant on visible satellite. I just hope the cloud deck across alot of the region doesn't stablize the atmosphere.Well. . .I have made it home, and nothing has happened. Nebraska looks really good in and close to the low. Winds look nicely backed across NE Kansas at the moment.

I hope we didn't screw up by leaving McAlester Ok. Or Joplin for that matter. We are at a family members house in Monett Mo. We will stay here for a while, I don't expect anything to happen anytime soon. It is cloudy and still in the high 60's. If the sun comes out it will only be briefly. NE Kansas may be seeing some initiation on visible satellite.


Thank's Marc, this has been amazingly fun! You give many options to choose from on these cases. The time it takes to put these together is greatly appreciated. Keep it up! These virtual chases will help all of us really stay sharp this coming season. . .

 

[David Wolfson]

The cu field and moisture flow in northeast KS looks very pregnant with the sweet spot being around Corning. Storms will be moving northeast about 30 kts. with mature supercells running a little north of east. I want to be a little closer to initiation(?) with decent road options, so I'm moving west to Hiawatha, KS, arriving somewhere after 19Z.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Can see the towers going up to the northeast of me. Moving up I-44 from Lawton to Chickasha, OK. Still feel I'll get the tail-end charlie down at my location.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Came in a little late, but I've been liking Emporia, KS for a long time until the last update. Now heading southeast towards Chanute, KS.

 

[Dann Cianca]

I want to be a little further east, so I'm thinking the north side of Topeka.

 

[Jared Orr]

Wow, I've shifted a lot farther east than I had planned. I was planning on a dryline chase, but the cu field and directional shear in easter KS is perfect. I'm gonna head to the NE side of Topeka... might not have time to get there by initiation....we'll see.

 

[Brian Stertz]

I am holding in Parsons KS and at 18z see that the wave is about to pop the dryline as seen on the tcu on satellite in NC Oklahoma. Given the strength of the mid-level winds, things should move rather quickly northeast.

 

[Patrick Martin]

I feel like I'm still in a great spot (Topeka) sitting in a juicy atmosphere, dryline apporaching, cumulus clouds building. Still hoping things will start popping in my line of sight. Could be a chaser convergence with those of us still in east central Kansas at this point. Ready to move quick if I need to.

Ditto. I'm going to hold in Topeka, KS for the moment but am ready to be on the move.

 

[Simon Brewer]

Decided it's time to leave my data source in Joplin, MO and move north-northwestward to Pittsburg, KS. 18z SFC Analysis shows deeper moisture associated with a 'sagging' warm front over southwestern Missouri is causing region of backed winds on the nose of deep moisture just north of Joplin, MO.

Towers appear to be developing from SAT images in north-central Oklahoma, so the CAP might break soon....

Currently targeting Pittsburg, KS area; basically wait for storm development and hop on most promissing storm as it passes in the vicinity of the target area.