Doug Mitchell
EF2
I'm worried about my area clearing so I'm keeping my car faced south in case I need to book it towards SE KS but for now, I'm going to stay in Lawrence.
Another Chase Case! #9
- Thread starter Marc Austin
- Start date
Marc Austin
EF4
18Z Updates!
Well here's the long-awaited 18z update. Once again, I'm happy to see how many people are participating in this case! Everyone thanks me and others who have posted cases for putting them together, but without participants, I wouldn't do it anymore, so thanks once again for your enthusiasm and interest!
This is a great case and I'm sure many of you will be satisfied with the results. Anyway, 'nuff said, let's get to business.
18Z Observations:
Surface Observations:
Southern Plains
Central Plains
High Plains
Middle Miss. Valley
Satellite Images:
Central Plains
Middle Miss. Valley
High Plains
Radar Images:
High Plains
Middle Miss. Valley
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Once again, I will try to update the wayfaring map as much as possible!
Well here's the long-awaited 18z update. Once again, I'm happy to see how many people are participating in this case! Everyone thanks me and others who have posted cases for putting them together, but without participants, I wouldn't do it anymore, so thanks once again for your enthusiasm and interest!
This is a great case and I'm sure many of you will be satisfied with the results. Anyway, 'nuff said, let's get to business.18Z Observations:
Surface Observations:
Southern Plains
Central Plains
High Plains
Middle Miss. Valley
Satellite Images:
Central Plains
Middle Miss. Valley
High Plains
Radar Images:
High Plains
Middle Miss. Valley
Central Plains
Southern Plains
Once again, I will try to update the wayfaring map as much as possible!
Doug Mitchell
EF2
Just going to sit in Lawrence and wait for the dryline off to my west to light up. Cu field developing between Manhattan and Topeka
Bob Hartig
EF5
Surface obs suggest convergence just west of Topeka. I'm sitting right on the leading edge of a nice cumulus field; dryline is still a bit farther west, but I don't like the veering winds that precede it. I'm in an excellent position to nudge east toward KC if these cumulus show promise, or to wait for anything that pops along the dryline to come to me. I'm still hunkering in Topeka, monitoring conditions both overhead and farther west.
Dean Baron
Supporter
Im still in Moran, KS but looking at heading northeast towards the KS area or maybe even make a jog east in to Missouri to stay ahead of the developing Cu field. For now I will head north back towards my original target of Ottawa, KS and see what happens between now and the next update. My guess is that I will head east in to Missouri but who knows. I will say I am glad I stayed east on this setup, it will only be a relatively short drive for me to readjust anywhere that looks to have good potential right now.
Mike Ridgeway
EF2
I feel like I'm still in a great spot (Topeka) sitting in a juicy atmosphere, dryline apporaching, cumulus clouds building. Still hoping things will start popping in my line of sight. Could be a chaser convergence with those of us still in east central Kansas at this point. Ready to move quick if I need to.
JF Massicotte
EF3
Don't see any need to move out of Topeka... Good backing of wind, some convergence, nice CU field...
Jeremy Perez
Supporter
Just arrived in Tonkawa at noon as planned, grabbed the fastest fast food I could find. I'm intrigued by the thicker blot of cumulus that popped up west of Perry, OK just to my SSW. I'm jumping east on Hwy. 60 from Tonkawa to Bartlesville. Then north on Hwy 75 to Independence, KS. I should be there by 2:30 pm/2030Z. If that Perry cumulus aggregate blossoms first & dominates, I figure I can keep an eye on it all the way to Independence. Or, more likely, I can learn my lesson that I should have gotten an earlier start to head further NE sooner in the day. 
Joe Karel
EF1
I'm sitting in Wichita, KS and I think I am moving northeast to Lola, Ks. I'd rather try to get ahead of the storms than try to play catch-up so ill just head east to Lola, KS and see what happens from there.
Jason Branz
EF2
Nice Cu field going now. We're going to head up the turnpike from Emporia toward Topeka into the better backed flow. The dews are still holding here in EMP but with those veering winds, I'd like to get north and east. Looks like we might end up in the good ol' Show Me State before this one's done.
Corey Sloan
EF1
Heading north toward Ottawa, KS from NE OK to wait on more data...agree with some posts that Western MO may be the better place to be....
Greg McLaughlin
EF5
I feel really confident about my current position Columbus, KS, and I like how things are beginning to shape up. The 18z surface plot shows the dryline pushing through the I-35 corridor attm. The visible satellite image shows clouds are beginning to clear out across eastern Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. A nice cu field is quickly developing on the back edge of the thicker cloud deck and this area will likely be where storms initiate in the next couple of hours or so.
Another feature I am keeping an eye on is the belt of mid-level clouds extending northeast from western Texas into northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. This is obviously evidence of a strong mid-level jet pushing through the southern Plains, and I expect the best storms to develop on the LFQ of this jet feature....across southeast Kansas south into northeast Oklahoma.
Another feature I am keeping an eye on is the belt of mid-level clouds extending northeast from western Texas into northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. This is obviously evidence of a strong mid-level jet pushing through the southern Plains, and I expect the best storms to develop on the LFQ of this jet feature....across southeast Kansas south into northeast Oklahoma.
Paul Austin
18z positioning
I don't like my "gut" target as much as before. Sfc Temps have failed to breach the low 60s threshhold, and Td's aren't much better. I do still feel there could be a surprise cell in SC/SE SD late in the day as temps aloft are much cooler and 300/500 mb divergence is quite high here. However, LL winds are weak, and the air left in the wake of morning MCS just hasn't recovered much.
So I'm happy I just slept in and waited for the 18z. I like my position at Grand Island near the nose of a nice tongue of moisture and LL heating with very nicely backed surface winds along and just south of the boundary. I also find myself surrounded by deep convective storms drawing this moisture up from the SE. Question is , will one of these cells organize? or become an outflow dominant mess? And what about points further south along the dry line into KS?
I think I'll watch these cells for the next hour or so (or until I see something firing further south) and then drift towards York, NE. This will give me a more straight shot south, should the dry line erupt, or should these NE cells kick out an outflow boundary initiating cells S of where I am. I'll just wait until the plains light up over the next few hours.
I think I would have some concerns had I opted further south (S OK/N TX) as sfc winds are somewhat veered and LL convergence doesn't appear to have developed as nicely as I would like, given the strength of the cap. So attm, I'm happy with my decision to focus north.
<<Hangs head in shame as beautiful discrete slow-movers blossom over the aforementioned area over the next few hrs>>
I don't like my "gut" target as much as before. Sfc Temps have failed to breach the low 60s threshhold, and Td's aren't much better. I do still feel there could be a surprise cell in SC/SE SD late in the day as temps aloft are much cooler and 300/500 mb divergence is quite high here. However, LL winds are weak, and the air left in the wake of morning MCS just hasn't recovered much.
So I'm happy I just slept in and waited for the 18z. I like my position at Grand Island near the nose of a nice tongue of moisture and LL heating with very nicely backed surface winds along and just south of the boundary. I also find myself surrounded by deep convective storms drawing this moisture up from the SE. Question is , will one of these cells organize? or become an outflow dominant mess? And what about points further south along the dry line into KS?
I think I'll watch these cells for the next hour or so (or until I see something firing further south) and then drift towards York, NE. This will give me a more straight shot south, should the dry line erupt, or should these NE cells kick out an outflow boundary initiating cells S of where I am. I'll just wait until the plains light up over the next few hours.
I think I would have some concerns had I opted further south (S OK/N TX) as sfc winds are somewhat veered and LL convergence doesn't appear to have developed as nicely as I would like, given the strength of the cap. So attm, I'm happy with my decision to focus north.
<<Hangs head in shame as beautiful discrete slow-movers blossom over the aforementioned area over the next few hrs>>
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B. Kendrick
EF0
I think I'll start out in wellington kansas and await further details.
Derek Weston
EF5
Hmmm, like the SE surface windows in E/NE Kansas... but, still, not too bad here just east of Wichita... Holding steady in Augusta.
Agree that the winds right on the dryline aren't looking too solid through C Kansas.... though a bit better in OK.
Still thinking the dryline should light up as it pushes east here. Depending on how quick that goes, could be playing in Missouri soon here. (though, sort of concerned about things lining out a bit if we don't get better southerly flow along the DL)
Far as satellite goes... some stuff to my SW just starting to pop in N OK... probably wait for development in this area to move into my zone. Don't particularly like the close proximity of the thick layer of junk clouds covering most everything just east. . .
Agree that the winds right on the dryline aren't looking too solid through C Kansas.... though a bit better in OK.
Still thinking the dryline should light up as it pushes east here. Depending on how quick that goes, could be playing in Missouri soon here. (though, sort of concerned about things lining out a bit if we don't get better southerly flow along the DL)
Far as satellite goes... some stuff to my SW just starting to pop in N OK... probably wait for development in this area to move into my zone. Don't particularly like the close proximity of the thick layer of junk clouds covering most everything just east. . .
