Latest 00Z ETA is in, and I have more confidence that a severe weather scenario may pan out. Latest data shows the 500mb shortwave fo be stronger than what the 18Z ETA had predicted, and looking at the WV loop, this looks probable. Low and mid level winds are also slightly better this go around, probably due to the stronger shortwave, with 30-40knts at 700mb. Given the better wind field, shear is better, with 0-3KM shear of 35knts, and effective SRH of 170M2/S2 (at LAN). Moisture return is still my main concern... However, modifying the ETA sounding for LAN with a parcel of 81F/63F creates just over 2500J/KG, and if the dewpoints can really get pooled to 65F (wow!), CAPE jumps to 3200J/KG - Which would certainly support severe thunderstorms.
Expect the main storm type to be a squall line given the strong forcing along the pre-frontal trough, but with BRN numbers in the mid 20's and effective SRH of 170M2/S2, I could imagine a few supercells popping up...
The severe weather season so far across MI has really been weak, with most forecasts becoming busts. At this point, I will take any form of severe weather I can get - Be it an outflow dominate squall line or a pulse severe storm...