Chase Case #4

[Buddy W Bradley]

Yeah Brian. But you would have already been moved to another target by then. LOL Anyways... Thanks again Scott. Just goes to show you a NW flow isn't always all that bad now doesn't it?? I would have been too far west based on the information. But in real time... I would have known the frontal location and moved east accordingly. Can't wait for our next virtual chase. These are fun, informative and a way to pass the time.

 

[Shane Adams]

Guessed the date wrong again, so I'm a perfect 4 for 4 busting. This makes four events I didn't really chase, and considering my financial situation in May of 2003, it's no wonder.

 

[Dennis Dennison]

I don't feel too bad about my predictions-Originally I was going to go way out west, I had a feeling this was more of a test day, I had figured the storms would occur, but not in places expected or considered tornado alley stuff.
I had originally this might have been the tornado day in Salt lake City or perhaps an Ohio tornado day. I did get the Colorado tornado's, but had i went west I would have been in Laramie,WY. As far as my final stop in Lafayette, In, I don't feel bad about that location, as again actually being there, I would have been updating my info faster, and MIGHT have actually made moves into Illinois . Now with that said, I feel the day was more or less a bust for me, but not unhappy with my predictions.

 

[Corey Sloan]

How many ways can you spell BUSTED???? Rookie mistake...just glad I learned my lesson in a virtual chase and did not spend a ton of money on gas...thanks again for all who prepared chase case studies......

 

[Adam Lucio]

Like Chad said...nailed this one! What an under-forecasted day this indeed was. IL likes to play tricks on us thats for sure.

Thanks for doing this Scott. Now if only we can get a setup like this in 09.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Pay dirt! But I have to admit, I'm stunned. I never expected to do as well as I did, or even nearly as well.

Met the supe from my location in Galesburg, tracked with it east, and got some great photos as it sprouted tornadoes. But I can only give myself mixed credits. I was right on target with the jet max, dewpoints, and low-level helicities. But given the unidirectional mid- and upper-levels, I was expecting a big ol' squall line with possible spin-ups, not discreet supercells with well-defined, picturesque tornadoes. The satellite images of the cu field advancing toward me were telling the story plainly enough, but I figured everything would congeal into a linear setup.

I'm sure not complaining, though. I did better than I anticipated. Now if I can just do this well during storm season 2009, when the real stuff hits the fan, I'll be a mighty happy doobie.

EDIT: Scott, out of curiosity, do you have any reads on the CAPE for that date? And BTW, thank you for providing this thought-provoking, challenging case. It was definitely a learning experience.

 

[Marc Austin]

Seeing as how we are both in Burlington, I'll just say "ditto" since the northeast quadrant of CO would be my chosen chase terrain for this day. If CO ends up being a bust Marc, you are welcome to caravan back to my house and we'll throw some steaks on the grill.

Well Patrick, who knows if I would have been anywhere near Ft. Morgan when the tornado was reported 3 miles SW of that location, however I'll go ahead and give it to myself! What do you say we go back to your place and throw some steaks on the grill anyway?

 

[Danny Neal]

Nailed this in the chase case and in real life by doing the exact same thing! Can't believe this slipped under my radar. I caught a tornado in real life near West Brooklyn and then Joliet. I would assume I did the same in this chase case. Very surprising day!

 

[Tim Segraves]

Wow, very surprising outcome. I may have been able to catch something south of Madison but totally missed the chance in my own state! Thanks again to Scott for doing this.

 

[Danny Neal]

Just a few pics I have off-hand of this day in real life.

 

[John Farley]

Boy was I wrong about only linear stuff in central and northern IL. I'd like to think staying home in Edwardsville might have worked though, as I might have been able to blast north and intercept these cells since they are only an hour and a half up I-55.

In real life, I did not chase this day - not sure why. Ironically, I did catch a tornado in northwest flow in the same area (Logan Co.) 2 days earlier. There were several that day, too. One could have done well just hanging around Lincoln the 28th through the 30th that year!

 

[Andrea Griffa]

The results are in! This day was a tornado outbreak day with 27 tornado reports in one state alone. Another state had 7 tornadoes, and another state had two reported tornadoes.

I have post some 00z data here with the storm reports at the very bottom so you can look at the data first and make a personal decision as to whether or not you think you're in the right spot before you peek at the storm reports. The only clue I'll give is that it was NOT a late summer event, it was a May event.

Was the day what you expected? Were you surprised at the storm reports?
]

Thanks Scott for this virtual chasing, it was a nice case! I nailed the green county tornado and I had fun with this. Now I'm at Pizza hut in Janesville ready to see the maps of the next chase case; join me if there's someone in this neck of the woods.

 

[Patrick Martin]

Well Patrick, who knows if I would have been anywhere near Ft. Morgan when the tornado was reported 3 miles SW of that location, however I'll go ahead and give it to myself! What do you say we go back to your place and throw some steaks on the grill anyway?

I think given the 18z position, and seeing new stuff eventually move off the foothills, that turning and moving back w/nw to Ft Morgan would have been a reasonable play. It would have been about an hour or so to go back to Limon and shoot up hwy 71. I agree that steaks on the grill are in order.

Was surprised by the date being early May. The 12z temp/dew obs in CO threw me off thinking it was 45-60 days later in the year. With a lot of snow still being in the mountains in early May vs. in June/July, I may have played it a bit different if it had been a real chase and stayed home much longer since you'd be more apt to get some help with the combination of upslope and available ground moisture in the mountains.

 

[Verne Carlson]

I busted on this one... I would've stayed home and maybe seen the tops of the cells in e. CO from my house. The weak surface winds in e CO and low 50 Tds probably would have only slightly tempted me to get out.

I'll join you guys for the BBQ - but I only deserve a burger on this one - no steak!

 

[David Wolfson]

Well, Illinois was certainly the place to be -- not CO or WY. An hour's waiting in Torrington, WY, showed that the moisture was mixing out and storms weren't making it off the mountains. At 22Z I headed south to stay in front of the better storms in case any were more successful. I also made a reservation in Ft. Morgan for the night. It was that or Sterling and nothing much seemed to be happening further east.

Anyway I got to Ft. Morgan about 00:30Z and ran around storm watching until it got dark. The Boulder NWS office logged a few tornado reports but these storms never even made much hail and Darren and I agree these reports are unconfirmed. I didn't see much, and I'll call a bust for me on this day.