Danny Neal
EF5
DAY BEFORE EVENT 12z DATA
Remember if the event were tomorrow it would be this mornings data.....
UPPER AIR:
300 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/qs8jdk/6
500 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/r2p89x/6
700 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/2946naq/6
850 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/30tqvrn/6
SURFACE PLOTS
Great Lakes: http://tinypic.com/r/15was8l/6
Midwest: http://tinypic.com/r/6gv1tu/6
Mid-Mississippi Valley: http://tinypic.com/r/1tvw4h/6
Northern Plains: http://tinypic.com/r/bezckl/6
Southern Plains: http://tinypic.com/r/1z71ljn/6
STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1 OUTLOOK:
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTH...
CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC
...SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AREAS TO THE ROCKIES. A DEAMPLIFYING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONGER NRN TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WILL WEAKEN AND STALL NORTH OF THE TN
VALLEY BY TONIGHT.
AS WRN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH TODAY...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
WILL SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE COUPLED UPPER
JET PATTERN.
...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES AND WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH
RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT INCREASING...CAP. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY
INITIATE NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...NCNTRL/NERN NEB TO
SCNTRL/SERN SD...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE-BASED STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL OCCUR WITHIN
FAVORABLY SHEARED CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A LOW
PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY.
TSTMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ATOP DEEPLY MIXED/WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...INVERTED-V PROFILES NOTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT FROM ND...ACROSS ERN SD...AND INTO
NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SWRN MN DURING THE
NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL
PRODUCTION WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.
...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTH...
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH TODAY. LONG RADAR LOOPS DEPICT
OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH INTO
NRN MS/AL AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS
THE OLD BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT
AREAS OF ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LA EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY AND
TSTM INTENSITY ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS FROM JAN/BMX/FFC...BELT OF 50-60KT
MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...OR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.
...SRN MO TO MIDDLE TN...
THERE IS LIABLE TO BE A GAP IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GIVEN ONGOING CLOUDS/RAIN LIMITING AIRMASS
RECOVERY. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING AND
PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/WIND INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 2:
******Soundings will be posted in the 00z edition along with a SFC/SAT/Frontal position overview probably later tonight/tomorrow morning.*****
Requests for the 12z Data?
Remember if the event were tomorrow it would be this mornings data.....
UPPER AIR:
300 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/qs8jdk/6
500 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/r2p89x/6
700 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/2946naq/6
850 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/30tqvrn/6
SURFACE PLOTS
Great Lakes: http://tinypic.com/r/15was8l/6
Midwest: http://tinypic.com/r/6gv1tu/6
Mid-Mississippi Valley: http://tinypic.com/r/1tvw4h/6
Northern Plains: http://tinypic.com/r/bezckl/6
Southern Plains: http://tinypic.com/r/1z71ljn/6
STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1 OUTLOOK:
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTH...
CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC
...SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AREAS TO THE ROCKIES. A DEAMPLIFYING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONGER NRN TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WILL WEAKEN AND STALL NORTH OF THE TN
VALLEY BY TONIGHT.
AS WRN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH TODAY...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
WILL SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE COUPLED UPPER
JET PATTERN.
...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES AND WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH
RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT INCREASING...CAP. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY
INITIATE NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...NCNTRL/NERN NEB TO
SCNTRL/SERN SD...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE-BASED STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL OCCUR WITHIN
FAVORABLY SHEARED CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A LOW
PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY.
TSTMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ATOP DEEPLY MIXED/WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...INVERTED-V PROFILES NOTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT FROM ND...ACROSS ERN SD...AND INTO
NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SWRN MN DURING THE
NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL
PRODUCTION WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.
...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTH...
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH TODAY. LONG RADAR LOOPS DEPICT
OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH INTO
NRN MS/AL AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS
THE OLD BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT
AREAS OF ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LA EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY AND
TSTM INTENSITY ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS FROM JAN/BMX/FFC...BELT OF 50-60KT
MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...OR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.
...SRN MO TO MIDDLE TN...
THERE IS LIABLE TO BE A GAP IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GIVEN ONGOING CLOUDS/RAIN LIMITING AIRMASS
RECOVERY. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING AND
PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/WIND INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 2:
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB/WRN IA INTO CENTRAL AND
ERN KS AND NWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. OUTSIDE OF
MDT RISK AREA...
...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING CENTRAL U.S...
...CENTRAL U.S...
STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS NRN PLAINS
INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEAD S/WV TROUGH
ROTATES NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DOES NOT ENTER CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE PRONOUNCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWD TO ERN NEB/WRN
IA AHEAD OF FIRST S/WV TROUGH.
A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MUCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG COMMON E OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. AS CAP
WEAKENS UNDER THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AND THE STRONG
HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. THE AREA
OF GREATEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
VEERING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD EXIST FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD ALONG
DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS REGION WOULD SEEM AS AN AREA FOR THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.
FURTHER N AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SD AND S/WV
TROUGH...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE HELICITY AND POSSIBLE
TORNADO POTENTIAL ERN ND/SD INTO WRN MN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS FURTHER S.
FROM CENTRAL KS SWD THE CAP STRENGTH WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER THE
EXPECTED EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
FORM.
ERN KS AND NWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF CENTRAL U.S. OUTSIDE OF
MDT RISK AREA...
...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/EVENING CENTRAL U.S...
...CENTRAL U.S...
STRONG MID LEVEL COOLING AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS NRN PLAINS
INTO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A LEAD S/WV TROUGH
ROTATES NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. ANOTHER S/WV TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DOES NOT ENTER CENTRAL PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE PRONOUNCED UPPER DIVERGENCE
DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON FROM ERN DAKOTAS SWD TO ERN NEB/WRN
IA AHEAD OF FIRST S/WV TROUGH.
A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MUCAPES OF 3000-4000 J/KG COMMON E OF COLD FRONT/DRY LINE. AS CAP
WEAKENS UNDER THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF TROUGH AND THE STRONG
HEATING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT SWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN KS. THE AREA
OF GREATEST POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
VEERING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD EXIST FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA SWD ALONG
DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL KS. THIS REGION WOULD SEEM AS AN AREA FOR THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES.
FURTHER N AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS SD AND S/WV
TROUGH...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE HELICITY AND POSSIBLE
TORNADO POTENTIAL ERN ND/SD INTO WRN MN EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS FURTHER S.
FROM CENTRAL KS SWD THE CAP STRENGTH WILL BE AN ISSUE. HOWEVER THE
EXPECTED EXTREME INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUPPORTS A CONDITIONAL RISK OF SEVERE WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN
FORM.
******Soundings will be posted in the 00z edition along with a SFC/SAT/Frontal position overview probably later tonight/tomorrow morning.*****
Requests for the 12z Data?
After all Danny, I hear you are getting that 12"-15" that you were hoping for. 
