CHASE CASE #3

[jaredleighton]

Gonna sit tight in Lawrence, KS for now.

 

[Danny Neal]

Dean: I will look for those soundings right now.

All: I will be posting the 00z night before upper air charts in 20 minutes!

 

[Joe Karel]

Left St cloud, MN and heading towards Sioux Falls, SD for the night

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

I am going to stay the night at the house here in Overland Park and then wake up early to find a target.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I'll overnight in Des Moines and figure out my plans from there with the 12Z runs. South Dakota is in my mind, but we'll see what shakes out in the morning.

 

[Danny Neal]

00z UPPER AIR DATA

300 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/33jo6tu/6

500 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/2ec12ms/6

700 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/2wbrt42/6

850 UA - http://tinypic.com/r/snmk4j/6

SURFACE PLOTS

Central US - http://tinypic.com/r/2uykm5f/6

Northern Plains/Great Lakes - http://tinypic.com/r/51rpr8/6

Additional Soundings:

Rapid City: http://tinypic.com/r/16hnbme/6

Aberdeen: http://tinypic.com/r/msmyo/6

Twin Cities: http://tinypic.com/r/8wche8/6

Bismark: http://tinypic.com/r/1199jq9/6

SPC DAY 1 0600 OUTLOOK:

...A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ...INCLUDING
THE LIKLIHOOD OF DAMAGING TORNADOES...

SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS AS
LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF VERY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS FROM NRN TX...NWD INTO NEB....AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE ERN DAKOTAS AND SWRN MN.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LLJ WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. RAPID DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SD INTO SWRN MN. DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF NRN-MOST SFC LOW IN CENTRAL SD WILL RESULT IN RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST PROFILES INDICATE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STRONG VEERING AND SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS ALONG WARM FRONT...WWD TO SFC LOW. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD AS COLD FRONT SHIFTS INTO MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FARTHER SOUTH...MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S...IS RAPIDLY SURGING NWD ACROSS TX EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 05Z THIS AIRMASS HAD RETURNED TO THE HILL COUNTRY...NEAR THE DALLAS/FT WORTH METROPLEX...NEWD INTO SRN AR. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE 70S DEW POINTS WILL LIFT ACROSS OK AND KS AHEAD OF DRY LINE BY PEAK HEATING/CONVECTIVE INITIATION. ALTHOUGH A LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...IT APPEARS STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS/BROKEN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRY LINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...ON THE ORDER OF 3500-4000 J/KG. CURRENT THINKING IS AFTERNOON HEATING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG DRY LINE...WILL PROVE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO SWRN OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STRONGLY FAVOR TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT AS VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ONLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 60KT FROM NERN OK INTO NERN KS.

DAMAGING TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WELL AFTER DARK ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTIPLE COMPLEXES COMPRISED OF EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS AS IT TRANSLATES INTO WRN IA/MO. DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE COMMON ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES WELL INTO THE MORNING HOURS.


And..............GO!

(Any other requests are allowed)
​

 

[Ben Holcomb]

Well, I am taking the day off from work for tomorrow, and driving to Adam Lucios house in Chicago to see where I want to go in the morning.

 

[Jeff Duda]

Probably gonna stick pretty close to home on this one. I'm going to put a target somewhere in IA, NE, SD, MN, KS, or MO.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Wow, this looks like one of those days you could be anywhere from Oklahoma to Nebraska and you might see tornadoes.

I'll sit in Kansas City until morning and decide where to go from there. I think that trof is going to dig a little more, so I think I might head south tomorrow toward Wichita, but I'll wait until 12z data to make up my mind for sure.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

Murphy's Law sez that this will be a day where lots of stuff happens around Omaha. But...

I've never been successful chasing between OAX and FSD. I like the better low-level convergence around Kansas City that I note on the 850. I don't see shear or ventilation being a problem.

I'll be in Topeka, on Wanamaker Rd. either at the Steak 'n Shake or the Panera.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

Just getting in on this. That is some serious wording by SPC. A look at 12z and 00z data reveals why. What a monster trough out west! I am going to stay in Tulsa for the night. I am going to play the dryline, maybe Kansas or Oklahoma depending on the cap.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Probably gonna stick pretty close to home on this one. I'm going to put a target somewhere in IA, NE, SD, MN, KS, or MO.

LOL, a little vague there?

 

[Dean Baron]

I like where I'm at in Sioux City. Gonna play the northern stuff today, hopefully that wont come back to bite me in the a$$. Gonna wake up in a few hours to hammer things out, but right now it's time for some ZZZZ's.

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

LOL, a little vague there?

He's borrowing Reed's airplane

 

[Danny Neal]

Just an aside..... I will let some people just joining us catch up. I won't post 12z (Game Day) stuff until 3-4 PM tomorrow. With people going to work and other activities, I want the latest release of data to be convenient with the majority.