CHASE CASE #3

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?hl=e....380028,-94.790039&spn=8.333467,19.753418&z=6 - Positions!

I believe the SPC has issued a PSWO..... let's see what that reads...

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW
STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA
OKLAHOMA

THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER OF EASTERN ND AND
MN SWD THRU MUCH OF CENTRAL TX.

AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS OVER THE
AREA.

AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
THAT WILL DRAW INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. A VIGOROUS JET STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL STRENGTHEN WINDS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH VERY STRONG SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...VARIOUS SURFACE
FEATURES WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NEBRASKA...IOWA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN KANSAS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN TEXAS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT STORMS THAT QUICKLY DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. A STRONG POSSIBLY FOR LONG TRACK
TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE HIGH RISK AREA.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL AFTER DARK AND SPREAD
EAST ACROSS REMAINING PORTIONS OF IOWA...MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. IN
ADDITION...MORE ISOLATED BUT STILL POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS
ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS ADJACENT TO THE HIGH RISK AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

________________________________

I have to study for an exam the majority of the afternoon (probably not) so I will post the 12z data in a little bit and later tonight I will go into chase mode. Work for everyone?

 
Woke up early and drove to Omaha, where I'm catching breakfast at a grease shop and waiting for the 12Z runs (meaning the obs and upper air maps, not the effects of the breakfast).
 
Drove to Omaha, where I'm sitting at flying J... I'm inside the Burger King if anyone wants to visit, waiting on the 12z data. This coffee tastes like gasoline.
 
12Z UPDATE

Surface Plots/Analysis

Soundings:

Dodge City: http://tinypic.com/r/jb3635/6

OUN: http://tinypic.com/r/11jc3nr/6

Topeka: http://tinypic.com/r/1222l47/6

Springfield: http://tinypic.com/r/vy1954/6

Omaha: http://tinypic.com/r/257emtk/6

Aberdeen: http://tinypic.com/r/t8ss2r/6

Twin Cities: http://tinypic.com/r/4g4rb/6

Upper Air:

300: http://tinypic.com/r/2cz7qk7/6

500: http://tinypic.com/r/11htqtz/6

700: http://tinypic.com/r/2zp8os2/6

850: http://tinypic.com/r/5brck7/6

Central Radar/Satellite 12z - 16z

R12z: http://tinypic.com/r/52h0k8/6

S1330z: http://tinypic.com/r/28tyngm/6

S1430z: http://tinypic.com/r/29d7k92/6

R15z: http://tinypic.com/r/a4odhf/6
S1530z: http://tinypic.com/r/1ibihh/6

Northern Radar/Satellite 12z - 16z


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Will post 1630 update/MDs/more radar/satellite in a couple hours.... hope this is enough information!
 
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Leaving Russell and heading up to Lincoln, NE along I-80. I want to get up closer to where the triple point may setup later today. The text on this one has me salivating for spring!
 
I am leaving Dicks and headed to Concordia, Kansas. I was also looking at South Central KS West of ICT. I think Both areas are really Good. I just have a gut feeling about Concordia.
 
I'm probably crazy... but I don't like all the clouds to the north that have been there for days. I just can't concentrate on one good target.... I'm going to sit in the sun in Childress, TX and watch to the west in hopes the winds back ahead of the dryline.
 
Somewhere betw. Manhattan and Beatrice looks good according to the 12Z data. I'm heading toward Marysville, KS via Manhattan, moving along the best surface moisture axis.
 
Left Emporia a little after 1300z. Hoping to arrive in McPherson, KS around 1530z, allowing me to utilize I-135 to head either north towards the TP, or to SW Kansas if I feel the cap is breakable.
 
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