CHASE CASE #3

[Danny Neal]

MD#2:

0102 PM CDT

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF N CNTRL/CNTRL KS...S CNTRL/SE NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL


INITIATION OF INTENSE CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE WITHIN NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH TRANSITION TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES THEREAFTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTENING/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT NOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO WARM ADVECTION IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALREADY LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE/JET STREAK DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. STRONGER FORCING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME
APPEARS LIKELY TO CURVE ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE VICINITY OF HILL CITY THROUGH AREAS NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF SALINA.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN KANSAS...EAST OF SURFACE LOW NOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF RUSSELL. LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CAP IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN CAPPING LAYER NEXT FEW HOURS...STORMS LIKELY WILL DEVELOP.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INITIATION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS 21Z EAST OF HILL CITY...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CONCORDIA KS/HASTINGS AND BEATRICE NEB AREAS. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...STORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...BEFORE HODOGRAPHS BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN THE TIME FRAME.

BY THIS TIME...BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70F...CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG...POSSIBLY LONG-TRACK...TORNADOES.

 

[Patrick Martin]

12z: Seeing the dryline back far to the west, skies rapidly clearing, moisture return well underway, and upper level support coming in later, decided to hang around in Salina.

18z: Dryline advancing east and triple point setting up, on the move up hwy 81 to Hebron, NE. Should be there right around 20z.

 

[Scott Hammel]

Whoa! Just as I arrive in Hiawatha, I checked the 18z run and I've decided to head back W on 36 to Belleville, KS. This should land me there right around 20z an hour ahead of the next model runs

 

[Jim Cross]

Im leaving Marysville and joining the crowd at Hebron, NE. This might be my last update as im headed to work. If i get a chance i will try to update later.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

Currently northbound on I-135. Should get to Salina, KS around 1845z. Will then make the quick decision whether to head west or north.

 

[Verne Carlson]

Feeling pretty confident about my position in Lincoln, NE with the MD2 text. If storms form in the Concordia area they will be mature and producing about an hour later at this location.

 

[CZandbergen]

Turning the car around and heading back north. Looks better than SW KS. Will be in Salina KS by 20Z.

 

[Matt Gingery]

LOOKING AT THE LATEST VISIBLE, IT APPEARS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT SHOULD BE NEAR BROKEN BOW, NE AREA WITH THE DRYLINE DRAPED SOUTH TO PHILLIPSBURG, KS AND POINTS SW. I AM GOING TO ROLL OVER TO THE KEARNEY AREA AND WAIT FOR INITIATION AND THE NEXT UPDATE. I SHOULD BE IN KEARNEY AROUND 20Z. I CAN CHASE BACK TO THE EAST ON 80 AND HAVE PLENTY OF N/S OPTIONS.

 

[Danny Neal]

TORNADO WATCH #1
​

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHWEST IOWA
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
_________________

TORNADO WATCH #2

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 255 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 100 STATUTE MILES EAST AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HUTCHINSON KANSAS
TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS.
_______________________

TORNADO WATCH #3

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHWEST IOWA
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
EAST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.


DISCUSSION...WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS REGION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR THE DRY LINE AND TRIPLE POINT OVER N-CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NEB. OTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR WITHIN WARM SECTOR AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF KS. COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG OR VIOLENT
TORNADOES.

It is NOW 2:45 (1945z)......... You all know the areas affected now..... Make your final targets with these last radar/satellite/surface plot images!

Tune in later as the show will finally begin!
​

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

My dad and I made the drive to Wichita this morning arriving around 11am and we are now positioned west of Harper, KS, we think storms will fire to our west and sw on the dryline but we want to stay near the moist axis as the td/d depressions are quite high further west.

 

[Jacob Ferden]

OK, Danny says it's currently 2:45 PM. That being the case, I decided to press northward from Salina and am currently about to arrive in Concordia, KS. Am debating whether or not to continue up to Belleville or remain here.

 

[CZandbergen]

I am leaving Salina KS and heading north on 81 towards Belleville KS. Watching the dry line to my west and will likely go visual as soon as something gets its act together.

 

[Danny Neal]

Yup it is 2:45 PM, I will be busy until late tonight and all day tomorrow and I want to get as much of this in as I can before I start the actual "chase." I will let those catch up who are working or not available right now, I will post any other data per request, but I won't go past 2:45 P.M.

 

[Matt Gingery]

DRYLINE SEEMS TO BE FIRING. STILL HANGING BACK AT THE TRIPLE POINT HERE IN THE KEARNEY AREA. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS SOON, I MAY BE IN NEED OF REPOSITIONING. I THINK THERE ARE MULTIPLE AREAS TO INTERCEPT. I AM HOPING THAT THIS NARROW TOUNGE OF MID 60'S Td'S IS ENOUGH TO GET THINGS GOING HERE. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS VERY GOOD. I STILL THINK THE I-80 CORRIDOR IS THE PLACE FOR ME TO BE.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I'm still en route to Belleville where I will await initiation along the dry line and possibly move N and E into Nebraska if necessary...