CHASE CASE #3

[Greg McLaughlin]

What a perfect setup this is. I don't think I have ever seen such a perfect combination of ingredients before! The large trough is taking on a nice negatvie tilt with a strong upper jet diving around the backside of the trough. Widespread 40-50kt H5 flow will overspread the entire Plains by the afteroon with stronger H3 flow. I love the speed of the wind fields. The storms won't be moving too fast, especially for the southeren target. The 12z OUN sounding has a classic "loaded gun" look to it, as does Topeka. After looking a satellite and everything else I feel great about Oklahoma and Kansas. I think the cap will be too strong to get anything going south of the Red River, but northcentral Oklahoma and southcentral Kansas look dynamite.

I am headed to Enid, OK. I plan on arriving around 17z.

 

[David Wolfson]

Just getting up in Topeka. **Blink** Well, there'll be storms, all right! With the likely multiple cells firing to my west mid-afternoon moving a bit north of east at a brisk 30kts or so, I don't want to rush west. Will eat early, pack, and get 16:30 updates before noon checkout.

 

[Jim Cross]

Will leave St. Joe after breakfast and head west to Marysville, KS. Will wait there till the 16:30z update.

 

[CZandbergen]

After a quick look at the 12Z data I am leaving Salina KS and making the short drive to Wichita KS. Will take a look at the 18Z data from there.

 

[Chris Allington]

Well based on this mornings data I'm heading SW and hoping to be a bit ahead of the hint of a dryline bulge that may develop. Thinking if that low deepens it may slow up the dryline some as the moisture is pulled rapidly NNW. Taking the short drive from Omaha, NE to Hebron, NE and analyzing the later data.

 

[Randall Cooper]

Alright, as I planned last night, Im going to make the 30 minute drive to my perch area of Hiawatha, KS. Will sit in my favorite spot and wait for more data.

 

[Scott Hammel]

I'm heading out of Great Bend and liking the NE corner of KS and will get further data in Hiawatha, KS...Triple point will probably be a little further N and W into NE but I'm gonna sit tight just ahead of the dryline.

 

[Danny Neal]

MD#1:

1242 PM CDT

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF IA...SERN SD...NERN NEB...SWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT. A WW COULD BE REQUIRED NEXT HOUR OR SO. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG INSOLATION VICINITY OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRAPED NW-SE OVER CENTRAL IA WITH BOUNDARY LAYER CU INCREASING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S F THROUGH ADVECTION WHICH IS PROVIDING AN UNSTABLE AND HIGH RH BOUNDARY LAYER. CAP IS EXPECTED TO BREAK AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 80 F AS INDICATED BY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES.

COMPLICATING FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS MID LEVEL WIND FIELD WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON STORM MODE AND EVOLUTION. SLA AND FBY PROFILERS SHOWS ONLY 10-15 KTS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 KM AGL. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. STORMS SHOULD THUS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TIME.

 

[Andrea Griffa]

Well based on this mornings data I'm heading SW and hoping to be a bit ahead of the hint of a dryline bulge that may develop. Thinking if that low deepens it may slow up the dryline some as the moisture is pulled rapidly NNW. Taking the short drive from Omaha, NE to Hebron, NE and analyzing the later data.

I think Hebron, Ne is a good spot where to wait for the next runs of the models. I'm at super 8 now; I'm gonna have breakfast within two hours at Marys Cafè, if you wanna join up with me to discuss about this setup, Chris, just make me a call.

 

[Lanny Dean]

Danny, please pull Chad and I out at this time. I recognize the set up and date.

Thanks,
Lan

 

[Wes Carter]

I'm getting into this late, but since the last chase I was near Memphis, TX I am going to park in Childress, TX and watch things for a bit.

 

[Danny Neal]

18z Satellite:

18z Radar:

18z Surface:

 

[Matt Gingery]

Very nice set up. I woke up this morning from the luxurious Motel 6 in Topeka and checked the data. Really tempted to head south into Oklahoma, although I have already commited heading north and even purchased a motel room, so south is out at this point. Loaded gun sounding in OKC looks great, but I am questioning whether or not the upper forcing will arrive in time to break the cap before nightfall. So I packed up early and should be in Omaha, Nebraska around 15z. This gives me great traversing along I-80 and lots of road options. I will be playing the triple point on this event, as well as early convection along the warm front. Things should get started to the west and southwest later and become more SFC based as it rolls into deeper moisture. I will be in Omaha near the Missouri River until the next update. . .


18z EDIT: Well, no sooner than I made that decision I awoke from a nap and checked the 18z update. Noticing a Cu field brewing to my SW. I am going to jog to the west a bit and sit tight in York Nebraska for the time being. . .

 

[Damon Scott Hynes]

I still like Marysville, KS and that's where I'll stay for the hour, but Hebron, NE looks just as good.

 

[Chris Allington]

I think Hebron, Ne is a good spot where to wait for the next runs of the models. I'm at super 8 now; I'm gonna have breakfast within two hours at Marys Cafè, if you wanna join up with me to discuss about this setup, Chris, just make me a call.

Were hanging out and waiting for something out of that developing cu field with decent road options in all directions...