6/4/05 TALK: Central Plains

[fplowman]

Here I am all excited Tony and your post really bums me out... "I feel your pain" as Bill would say. The general consensus seems to be among my contacts and associates.. Somewhere between Topeka, Emporia, and Manhattan. Good luck everyone... Hope to see you guys out on the plains.. Well really though ill be watching the skys...lol


Edit: Sickels your weirding me out dude with your preminitions? How do those work out for ya in the past.. hehehe

Fred

 

[Chris Hayes]

Leaving ICT now. Going north on I-35 toward Emporia. Going somewhere in the area of Topeka, Manhattan, Emporia. Adjust the target area from there. Hope to see some chasers out on the road today. Pray nobody dies today.

 

[Jeff Miller]

hmm

Tony, I feel your pain bro... I was all ready to chase YESTERDAY and morningtime... and actually the day before really... I realized there was going to be nothing to chase..went to Omaha to get my wife and went back home.

Today I too am locked in work schedule and as much as I am contemplating calling off I cannot do that at my workplace, especially on a Saturday. So I am going to bite the bullet, sigh a sigh of resignation and sit at my computer at work while hundreds play around supercells in my backyard.

The setup looks awesome, and that High risk is tantalyzing. I hope that many score big tubes today, and I double hope no citizen or chaser gets injured and significant damage is avoided.

Good luck everyone.

 

[Chris Hayes]

We should setup a chaser convergence at a rest area or something for us all to talk and hang out while waiting fore the show to begin 8) :lol:

 

[Jonathan Whitehead]

hey if there is anyone looking for a chase partner let me know.
By the looks of things I would like to target Wichita region.
I am in Norman now and can be in ICT in 2 hours cause i drove it yesterday. Normally im interning at the SPC but now that Im not in classes at OU I can chase.
Please call me at 817-894-9324 or respond to my post "Need chase partner" in the weather and chasing section.

Kansas City appears to be in the bullseye. I hope that city is still there tomorrow.

 

[Stacy C. Young]

I will meet up with whomever is around the Topeka area. I do truly enjoy meeting each and every chaser...Reminds me that I'm not the only insane one out here.

Pick a time and a place....

 

[JHadorn]

If anyone wants to hookup with me in southeast NE or NE Kansas today gimme a ring. I'm always up for a chase partner or having a brew post-event.

402-223-3458
402-239-8459

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

Question of the day at this point is what is the sfc low going to do. The one in sw KS looks the best at this time but will that stay that way or will it all reform into one near the KS/NE border? The one in sw NE seems to get better via spc mesopage loop but not clearly so yet. It does however seem to make the most sense the dominant one would end up in the front left quad of that upper jet(seems like that region would be a bit n of the sw KS low but not much). Hmmm. Models don't seem to be sure yet. If the one in sw KS keeps looking like it is looking I'll be dropping sw rapidly soon. If not I'll still be dropping sw towards Hebron NE area but not as rapidly hehe. Perhaps those clouds in nc KS will help form an area of differential heating and help this process and get our sfc winds to back more. Clueless in other words I guess, but not as much as yesterday at this tme. Manhatten KS or west of there is probably a fairly safe bet at this time.

 

[Shane Adams]

Originally posted by Tony Laubach
From my blog to everyone today...

Chasers from all over the country are converging over an area encircled with a red line penciled in by an SPC forecaster at 6:08 CDT this morning. The first real HIGH RISK of the season has been issued for a large part of the Plains, including Eastern Kansas, Western Missouri, Southeast Nebraska, and Southwest Iowa. Was rather surprised at this being as yesterday's Day 2 didn't even have a MODERATE out for the area. My surprise wasn't quite as bad as the Day 2 DID have a hatched area for today. Was just amazed to see this evolve so quickly.

I, obviously, am screwed for the third day in a row. A season of frustrations continues to amplify for me as for the third day in a row of good weather, am confined to earning a paycheck. Thursday's big day in Colorado; yesterday's mess in Southeast Denver; and the final nail in the coffin, today's potential HIGH RISK out east. I'm bummed... this really sucks. I'm not sure how much harder I can get slapped with all of this. Three days.. the ONLY three days I've had to be at work in the last MONTH and they're the best days of the season. I've said it a few times in the past couple days, and I'll say it again... I'd rather cap bust bad setups as opposed to not being able to go out on great setups. This hurts. I've been a frustrated chaser the passed couple days... today just iced it. Yeah, I have the next 4 days off after today... not much good it's gonna do I'm afraid... 2005 is quickly falling into the crapper as it seems Nature locked into my work schedule. And I know, I know.. there are dozens of others in the same boat, and I'm sure they're quietly (or not so) bitching to themselves about missing today... I guess I feel extremely shafted cause the last two days have been backyard events I couldn't make. Today, I feel like everyone else stuck with other obligations, except that I have two backyard days compounding my frustrations. This sucks... easily the hardest and worst part of chasing is this... not being able to go out.

I wish the best of luck and safety to all those out today. I know many who can't chase today who live in the above mentioned area, so even those people will find themselves eyeing the skies. Today's one of those days where chasers earn their reputations for the community. Remember, you're first mission today is the safety and protection of the people and yourselves. Major metropolitan areas potentially lie in the paths of storms today, storms that could drop devestating tornadoes. The citizens of those areas rely on your eyes to make sure they're safe from harm. And when they're not, they rely on your eyes to let them know its coming. Fortunately the Saturday timing dramatically decreases the rush hour scenario, but at the same time, likely means many people will be out at malls, parks, etc. Those people may have little warning today if something develops. Please be on your toes for your sake and the sake of others. There are many reckless and careless chasers who will also be joining the ranks of the responsible and safety minded this afternoon, and today's that type of day where that fooling around will get someone killed. Please, be safe, be responsible, and be alert. I bid God's speed to everyone today, not just the chasers, but the residents of the towns and cities which potentially lie in the paths today. A chaser always wishes for days like this, and hopefully, it'll happen over unpopulated areas where the human impact is kept to an absolute minimum. And a last note to chasers, don't venture where your guardian angels won't... good luck and happy hunting...

I went through this during the 2003 season. Here's the events I missed because of work/no car/no money:

May 1, 2003
May 8, 2003 (backyard)
May 9, 2003 (backyard)
May 10, 2003
May 15, 2003
June 24, 2003

I know your pain very well.

 

[Mikel Shively]

Well, Im sitting here in Princeton, MO trying to decide where to target part of me says STJ but another part of me says farther south. All I know is if I dont decide where to target, I am going to miss the whole thing. LOL

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Like Mike H., I'm having a difficult time choosing between lows. Kind of mucks things up. Obviously, the northern play is enticing, seeing as I'm already up here. The I-70 corridor in KS is kind of a haul. Also, still feeling a little woozy from something I ate last night (best I can tell), so a long drive doesn't sound particularly appealing.

I guess I'll wait to see if the 1630Z outlook sheds any light on the situation.

 

[Scott Taylor]

Originally posted by JHadorn
If anyone wants to hookup with me in southeast NE or NE Kansas today gimme a ring. I'm always up for a chase partner or having a brew post-event.

Likewise, I wouldn't mind meeting a lot of you today too, if possible. I'm still hanging out in McPherson, but I'm tempted to start pushing east, towards Emporia. I'll hang out a bit longer and keep watching surface obs and sat imagery.


Good luck, be safe.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

I'm currently sitting in Paola Kansas, sun is starting to shine now after being cloudy all morning.. temps are well up in the 70s if not lower 80's, Dew Points probably between 70 and 75.

If any of you guys are near Paola, the Library here has free wireless network that you can connect to via laptop. I'm going to hang here for a while....

Be careful out there guys, I've had to turn around once already due to a flooded road.. I took pics so I'll post them tonight when I get home...

 

[Mike Johnston]

Getting ready to go meet up with Dick McGowan in Olathe and then head to Emporia as a first base stop. Won't go into forecast details, but I like axis from Burlington-Council Grove-Junction City for initiation, although the RUC has precip breaking out just west of Wichita by 18z.

Some thoughts going through my mind in preparation for today which chasers may want to keep in mind:

1. Storm motion may be on the fast side today; I saw a map on Earl's site that showed 30-40kts NE motion in my target area, w/ more ENE movement further south in KS.

2. Very long stretch on KS turnpike between Emporia and Cassoday exit through the heart of flint hills with absolutely no exits, and no secondary road options. It's beautiful out there w/ majestic views, but be careful not to box yourself in - especially since the turnpike runs parrallel to expected storm movement.

3. Don't forget the rainex on windshield.

Good luck, and I concur w/ other posts - be safe and always keep in mind the safety of others.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Can't chase today since I'm back home (MN) for my brother's high school graduation... I've been able to chase every other day this spring except during my own graduation (May 12-14 nonetheless)... Grr.

My virtual target is Wellington, KS. See my FCST post for specs.

I wouldn't call this a guarenteed tornado day. Models prog the sfc and 850mb winds to veer a bit, yeilding non-impressive low-level shear profiles. Additionally, as very well noted by Bill's post in FCST thread, moisture depth isn't too terribly deep, and if winds do indeed veer much to a westerly component, the nice Tds may mix out a bit, yielding a little lower CAPE than models forecast (though still in the strong to possibly extreme category) but higher LCLs. I like the southern KS target the best myself right now.

Reminder: