6/4/05 TALK: Central Plains

[Robert Dewey]

Yeah, that HIGH really blindsided me! Last thing I remember is going to bed yesterday with a SLGT risk, and a select few people saying today looked less than impressive. Really caught me offguard, too bad I'm way up here in MI though.

 

[Skip Talbot]

Woohoo, hello day 1! I'll be on the road in an hour bound for Des Moines and will readjust from there. Good luck and see you guys out there!

 

[Stacy C. Young]

Kansas City

I will be sitting here in Kansas City, at home until our next update from the SPC. I think Kansas City or Topeka will be a good starting point. My inner instinct is telling me more like St. Joseph, MO but I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Good Luck to everyone today and be extra careful, this could be a fairly dangerous situation. We have had about 4" of rain over night and what seems like constant redevelopment. Some roads are extremely flooded right now and will more than likely be soggy still this afternoon.

I will see those of you brave enough to venture out, on the road.

Happy Chasing

 

[Anthony Petito]

As was said above, If it you are chasing in SE Nebraska/NE KS area, be careful of dirt roads unless you have a 4 wheel drive or soemthign that can get you out of deep mud. We have had tremendous rain over the past few days and it hasn't had much of a chance to dry out yet.

Looks like storm initiation is expected sometime after 300PM today, although the OAX NWS Outlook did leave the possibility of it happening earlier than that. My guess is it really depends on how much sun we get!

 

[Scott Taylor]

Sitting here in McPherson, KS, waiting to see which way to head later.

Good luck to everyone today, and be safe!

(Days Inn has very good connection for anyone passing thru)

Scott

 

[Joey Ketcham]

I'm going to head up towards Emporia, I'll sit there for a while and then decide from there where to go.

If you see me in my white ford Expedition with a Pittsburg Ford license plate, be sure tos ay hi.

 

[Ben Prusia]

I am going to head out to Manhattan (because I want to head closest to the frontal area), if you see the Blue Nissan Sentra (that's not Shane's), with 3 antennas on the trunk lip, say hi!

Hopefully I get to test out my new Kestrel 3500, finally!

 

[Melissa Moon]

I knew it...the SPC issues a High Risk and half the board goes nuts over it :roll: .

I think that things will go crazy once the shortwave kicks through, but the question is how crazy? I'd hate to see everything go up at once and turn into unchasable HP beasts. Just a thought...

I'll be curious to see the lastest soundings when they come out (hopefully any time).

 

[Shane Adams]

Originally posted by Melissa Moon
I knew it...the SPC issues a High Risk and half the board goes nuts over it :roll: .

I suppose it's equally-annoying when everyone gets down on those SEE TEXT days too eh?

It's naturally exciting (if you're into severe weather at all) to see a High Risk, if for no other reason, they're rare. However, one need only check some current conditions/model forecasts to get excited. Important to remember that risk catagories are given mainly due to expected coverage, not neccesarily intensity.

Storm mode will be key today, as the ingredients for all sup varieties will be present up and down the risk area.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Originally posted by Melissa Moon
I think that things will go crazy once the shortwave kicks through, but the question is how crazy? I'd hate to see everything go up at once and turn into unchasable HP beasts. Just a thought...

I'll be curious to see the lastest soundings when they come out (hopefully any time).

Same here ... this is certainly a possibility on a day like this. We're working with a saturated tropical airmass on the order that we have not seen here so far this year. I'll also be interested in soundings today and seeing the kind of moisture that will be feeding these storms. I would say that HP mega beasts are certainly not out of the question, though I have to say that I am hopeful for some classic supercell organization at least in the beginning over NE Kansas. After going through the models one more time before going to sleep last night it was pretty convincing that there was agreement in the probability for significant severe today. It was moving in that direction most of the afternoon yesterday. We haven't seen organization in the models like that for quite some time.

I almost wish we had an OBS thread just for days like this ...

Currently the convective clutter plaguing the area overnight is rapidly disintigrating in favor of clear skies across northeast Kansas already. This will set the stage for rapid destabilization this afternoon. I would not be entirely surprised to even start seeing watches issued before long in anticipation for what is coming and to make the public aware of the risk.

These are the kinds of days when people lose their lives ... do not let it be a chaser today. I will be making the reporting of what I see a priority over all else today. Be safe and think clearly ... and hopefully we'll have interesting things to talk about tonight.

 

[Philip Flory]

I just woke up-- will post a more detailed post in the near future.


After glancing at some OBS and RUC data, I am wondering if my best bet may be to stay around ICT into the early afternoon. Set up in SC/SE KS looks plenty favorible for supercells/tornadoes and may even be somewhat more isolated than farther north. I know most people will target NE KS and most everyone will likely be up there, im not ruling that out yet. Im just saying I would not rule out a significant event down here today either.

 

[John Sickels]

the dream

I had a VERY intense dream about 3 AM this morning. I was shown a tornado outbreak map for today.

There were four tornadoes on the map.

An F0 about 25 miles SE of Kansas City.
An F2 that clipped the SE suburbs of Kansas City
An F3 impacting rural areas about 25 miles SSW of Kansas City
An F4 that struck Ottawa, Kansas directly causing extensive damage.

This was a dream but it was very, very intense. I hope it was not precognitive.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Philip - I agree - all up and down the board looks intense ... definitely a 5/4/03 repeat performance today. It will not be difficult to find supes from Oklahoma to Nebraska making a march east today. I believe we could see another line of them similar to what we saw in '03. Most chasers will probably descend on the sure bet today, but chasers who have been around the block a few times know that they will be able to see things in lots of places - and sometimes I like the zones further to the south BETTER because the storms end up being more classicly defined and easier to see in this situation. That was definitely true of the '03 scenario, when southern supes were producing highly visual tornadoes, while those in the high risk area were more difficult to chase.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Just woke up also. Going to target Emporia at the moment. I agree with Mike P. Lives come before storms. I just hope that every single town in this area of concern has their sirens ready to go. Let's pray that all of this hits open fields and nobody's lives/homes, etc are taken. Good luck to all.

Dick

 

[Melissa Moon]

Ok, going to bed, guys...(nearly midnight here). I'm optimistic about everything and I hope everyone sees lots of tornados (hopefully not doing any significant damage)!