6/4/05 TALK: Central Plains

[Dan Christianson]

Im thinking Mother Nature has some tricks up her sleeves, and it doesnt feel good, but hey im not a pshyic , but looks good for us chaser's ... time will tell tonight )(


GL to everyone :wink:

 

[Chris Hayes]

Originally posted by Dan Christianson
Im thinking Mother Nature has some tricks up her sleeves, and it doesnt feel good, but hey im not a pshyic , but looks good for us chaser's ... time will tell tonight )(


GL to everyone :wink:

What do you mean by, "it doesnt feel good"?

 

[Alex Lamers]

Well on my day 3 outlook tonight I went moderate risk from SE SD through S MN into W WI as well as E NE into all of IA and NE KS into far N MO.

I preferred the EMWCF/UKMET solutions because they appear to be less contaminated by feedback issues that are plaguing the GFS/NAM. Also the NAM is kickin sfc dpts way too high.

Curved hodographs and rapid low occlusion are favoring the SW MN...NW IA area for some stronger tornadoes. We'll see how the models hone in.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Mikey Gribble]

Maybe I am missing something, but I don't see much happening on Saturday. To be honest, I don't even think I would chase if the NAM verifies. Hopefully things will improve.

 

[Ben Prusia]

Thought I would bump this up.

Saturday has had run-to-run consistency on the NAM model, something that has not happened any other day this week for the systems today and yesterday. There is a wide swath that can be considered for a target area, anywhere from Kansas City to Fort Dodge. I am still not sure on a target, as of yet.

I think I will finally head out tomorrow, for the first time this week.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

The NAM has certainly improved the setup for tomorrow since the Wednesday night run. I will wait until I see the 00Z runs to pick my preliminary target, but as of now I am looking at NE Kansas, NW Missouri, S Iowa area. I think tomorrow does have decent tornado potential. However, this season has been one kick in the nuts after another so I am having a hard time being optimistic.

 

[Mikey Gribble]

After just glancing over the 00Z runs I am very optimistic. It shows any morning convection clearing with CAPE around 4000J/KG in NE Kansas. Low and mid level winds are very good although I would like to see a little better directional shear. According to the NAM, 850mb winds might be veering a little more in Iowa than in the NE Kansas NW Missouri target. I am going to go to Kansas City in the morning to stop by Cabelas and get data. I will fine tune my target from there, but I shouldn't have to move far. I would imagine I will end up setting up shop somewhere North of Kansas City. If the NAM is telling the truth, tornadoes would be very likely with any discrete storms in this area IMO. My only worries are how convection will evolve.

Edit- after taking a closer look, deep layer shear is a little weak, but I am not too concerned about that. It is a little better in S Iowa.

 

[Justin Walker]

Originally posted by Michael Gribble
If the NAM is telling the truth, tornadoes would be very likely with any discrete storms in this area IMO. My only worries are how convection will evolve.

That is my biggest concern also...the cap erodes quickly and given all the forcing...sup's may evolve quickly into line segments with embeded sup's. Also, there will be a lot of convective debris left over from tonights MCS...we'll have to see how that plays out in the morning.

With this being said, I am kinda eyeing se KS into extreme n OK. The cap will be stronger and this may help keep storms more discrete. This may be a little of a wishcast bc I will be working in the area and can take off after work... :roll:

 

[Adam Atkins]

6/4

This could be a HIGH risk if the NAM verifies and convection initiates. I haven't seen 0-6 km shear like this across a wide area all of 2005 the night before a possible event. Surface winds should back in the afternoon due to the surface low deepening and helicity will be high shortly after 0 utc.

NE KS has best upper level diffluence and divergence. We might have a REAL dryline tomorrow for the first time in ages that can provide enough convergence for sustained thunderstorms. Setup reminds me a lot of 5/4/2003, which happens to be the last time I saw a tornado :x !

See ALL of you out there!

 

[J Holder]

I'll be in Salina tomorrow for a Civil Air PAtrol conference so i'm out of the chase for the day

HEAD'S UP AND FYI: If things go down in NE and EC KS be advised - The entire area's gotten anywhere between 4-7" of rain in the last 48 hours and there are flood watches and warnings everywhere. Take it easy on anything other than blacktop and even keep an eye on those roads if we get any more rain.

Currently in Osage City we've had 5.25 inches per my guage since thursday morning.


JH

 

[Kathryn Piotrowski]

Saturday Outbreak HIGH ALERT

Based on the OOZ NAM it looks like tornadic supercells NE KS. I think damaging tornadoes are likely from TOP-MCI. Also tornadic storms NE-NE
and Central IA. Long track tornadoes are proable given strong deep layer shear and high capes over a large area.

THis should the best day of the year by far!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jeff, Kathryn, Brian are in Wichita tornado,s are now under way SC KS with damage reports are coming in.

 

[Anthony Silver]

I agree...tomorrow's setup does have quite a few similarities with the 5/4/03 event. I don't want to scream High risk just quite yet..The last time I did that, the situation had a totally different outcome. Without a doubt, I see a fairly significant event on tap for tomorrow PM. It will be very interesting to see how the 06Z and the 1300Z outlooks turn out. Unfortunately, I won't be able to chase tomorrow due to work obligations, but I wish everyone the best of luck!

 

[Philip Flory]

I agree right now with a NE KS or SW IA target, with some potential into E/SE/SC KS tomorrow as well. I don't want to sound too excited, I am however very optomistic about tomorrow's potential if the NAM does indeed verify. I'll probably plan on leaving ICT sometime mid-late morning and position myself somewhere in NE KS to start.

 

[John Farley]

GFS and NAM agree on good instability and helicity in eastern or northeastern KS, but GFS has the area of interest farther north than NAM. Since I am spending the night in Wichita after today's chase, it will be an easy drive for me tomorrow; after analyzing morning data will probably head up to Topeka and get more data there, then decide.

One thing that has me a little nervous is looking at the parameters along the warm front in my home territory of western IL. From STL up to south of DVN, the instability and shear look quite good, although NAM looks better than GFS. I hope this doesn't turn out to be one of those times when I drive forever only to have something better break out in my own backyard!

 

[ChrisStrunk]

SPC Day One out with Moderate risk across much of Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, and northeastern Oklahoma. 15% torn. prob's included in the entire Mod. risk area...

"...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY..."