6/4/05 TALK: Central Plains

If I am reading the models correctly, it looks like the weekend of June 4-5 could be active in the central plains. A guesscast at this point, but it looks possible.
 
I agree with the last post. Looks like the Central Plains will have a nice swly flow at 500mb which should make for an interesting weekend. I just read the EAX Area forecast discussion, they're already mentioning the possibility of severe weather for next weekend which is highly unusual. Normally they wait until about 2-3 days out before putting that in their discussions. Some light at the end of the tunnel! :D
 
KICT

KICT also mentions the possiblity of severe weather over the weekend in their current outlook.

Given the weird pattern this spring, caution is warranted. It wouldn't surprise me if the setup gets delayed for another day or two. But it does look like the pattern shift will finally happen sometime in the 6-8 day period.

The question now is how long does the "spring like" pattern last until we transition to summer and the heat ridge appears?
 
I was just looking at the detailed forecast from OUN and noticed that dewpts this weekend are progged to be in the MID 70s....that's right, I said MID 70s! It's about time.

To me, the 500mb flow still looks a bit weak for my liking, but considering the ridiculous instability that should arise from the progged lapse rates and the 88/74 temp/dewpt profile, parameters should be more than sufficient.
 
The question now is how long does the \"spring like\" pattern last until we transition to summer and the heat ridge appears?

My guess is the "spring like" pattern will be around through most of the upcoming month based on the latest models, but since I'm no expert forecaster, that's just a shot in the dark at this point. I know June and July can be very bizzarre in terms of severe weather. You may have one or two years that are quiet, and nothing but heat and humidity prevail. Then you have those years that are jammed packed with severe weather. I've learned to never turn my back on June and July, as I've seen some awesome outbreaks in the past. Since this year's weather pattern has been so messed up, there's no telling what will happen by the end of the month.
 
This setup may unfortunately end up being killed by overnight action which inhibits the daytime return flow, but regardless I believe the setup has promise. The 132 hour GFS shows a surface low drifting southward into the Texas panhandle by 0Z, which will help to back the surface winds even more. Above that lays a decent 40 knot 500 SW flow. 40 knots and 90 degrees of turning+ is enough for me. However, the latest HPC long range discussion mentions the GFS is ahead in the timing of the feature in the Plains. If this is so, we could be having this discussion about Sunday.
 
Boy, I'm really wishcasting at the moment, looking at the current GFS run for Saturday. Oh my my. You see, this is why I need to stop looking at 5 day model progs -- it's teasing me.

Here's hoping it doesn't move around much. That looks like a great setup for eastern NE. Sunday has a fuzzy sort of hope for Kansas, too.
 
Since not many people get to see these, I figure I can go ahead and post instead of sending people PMs. If not, I can remove this post and not post the extended stuff anymore. But.. I figure since this weekend is shaping up to be a big event, it amy be worth it to see what SPC thinks long range.

Here is the Day 4-8 Discussion, starting on Saturday:


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0432 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2005

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS TEND TO AGREE THAT SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY DAY 4...AND THEN INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY DAY 5. GREATEST COMBINATION OF CAPE/SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST ON DAY 4/DAY 5.

SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY ON MONDAY DAY 6...BUT THREAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THREAT AREA.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MONDAY DAY 6 WITH THE NEXT LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WRN STATES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST. NEW SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES BEYOND DAY 6...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PRECLUDES AN AREA.
 
LOL, yep. Earl's been having some problems with graphics. I think now Saturday the eta might be trending towards the GFS's thoughts. I'm being pulled towards central or sw KS. Probably just have to go where the outflow boundary goes...hoping there is a good one.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta8...hr_sfc_mslp.gif

Not good for places further north. Could still get an ofb in IA somewhere I guess and have some excellent mid-level flow to work with but my bets are now on KS. Get south of KS and bye bye mid-level flow.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta8...hr_sfc_temp.gif

Eeek, lol. Going to likely need that though to break the cap. I'll wave the 'high lcls' flag now so no one has to bring it up to all us idiots chasing the non-dreamers out there.
 
NAM doesn't look like a good run for Friday either... Something I think is wacky with the latest run.

40-50 knots sw 500mb flow from KS to NE with a 994 sfc low in sw KS, a truckload of instability and likely outflow boundaries in the area. I think Friday is still safe.
 
Originally posted by Mike Hollingshead
NAM doesn't look like a good run for Friday either... Something I think is wacky with the latest run.

40-50 knots sw 500mb flow from KS to NE with a 994 sfc low in sw KS, a truckload of instability and likely outflow boundaries in the area. I think Friday is still safe.

Thanks Mike... Had that little graphics problem... 8)
 
Originally posted by Jayson Prentice
NAM doesn't look like a good run for Friday either... Something I think is wacky with the latest run. :oops: :roll:

The 72 and 84 hr runs of the NAM have performed ridiculously bad this year. Looks to be just a marginal SEV setup for Fri and Sat. Expect the 00z NAM run tonight to trend even more toward the GFS and weaken the 500mb flow. Winds are backed at 700mb in the area of quality 500mb flow and southerly sfc. winds as well, which doesn't get me excited at all. The ECMWF, which has been the most consistent mid-range model, lacks a surface focus besides up in the extreme Northern Plains (ND and MN). However, instability and moisture likely will not be sufficient for tornadoes in this area. My thoughts are looking ahead toward the next long wave trof coming on shore early next week, as it looks to have much more potential than this system.
 
Im thinking Mother Nature has some tricks up her sleeves, and it doesnt feel good, but hey im not a pshyic , but looks good for us chaser's ... time will tell tonight )(


GL to everyone :wink:
 
Originally posted by Dan Christianson
Im thinking Mother Nature has some tricks up her sleeves, and it doesnt feel good, but hey im not a pshyic , but looks good for us chaser's ... time will tell tonight )(


GL to everyone :wink:


What do you mean by, "it doesnt feel good"?
 
Well on my day 3 outlook tonight I went moderate risk from SE SD through S MN into W WI as well as E NE into all of IA and NE KS into far N MO.

I preferred the EMWCF/UKMET solutions because they appear to be less contaminated by feedback issues that are plaguing the GFS/NAM. Also the NAM is kickin sfc dpts way too high.

Curved hodographs and rapid low occlusion are favoring the SW MN...NW IA area for some stronger tornadoes. We'll see how the models hone in.

...Alex Lamers...
 
Maybe I am missing something, but I don't see much happening on Saturday. To be honest, I don't even think I would chase if the NAM verifies. Hopefully things will improve.
 
Thought I would bump this up.

Saturday has had run-to-run consistency on the NAM model, something that has not happened any other day this week for the systems today and yesterday. There is a wide swath that can be considered for a target area, anywhere from Kansas City to Fort Dodge. I am still not sure on a target, as of yet.

I think I will finally head out tomorrow, for the first time this week.
 
The NAM has certainly improved the setup for tomorrow since the Wednesday night run. I will wait until I see the 00Z runs to pick my preliminary target, but as of now I am looking at NE Kansas, NW Missouri, S Iowa area. I think tomorrow does have decent tornado potential. However, this season has been one kick in the nuts after another so I am having a hard time being optimistic.
 
After just glancing over the 00Z runs I am very optimistic. It shows any morning convection clearing with CAPE around 4000J/KG in NE Kansas. Low and mid level winds are very good although I would like to see a little better directional shear. According to the NAM, 850mb winds might be veering a little more in Iowa than in the NE Kansas NW Missouri target. I am going to go to Kansas City in the morning to stop by Cabelas and get data. I will fine tune my target from there, but I shouldn't have to move far. I would imagine I will end up setting up shop somewhere North of Kansas City. If the NAM is telling the truth, tornadoes would be very likely with any discrete storms in this area IMO. My only worries are how convection will evolve.

Edit- after taking a closer look, deep layer shear is a little weak, but I am not too concerned about that. It is a little better in S Iowa.
 
Originally posted by Michael Gribble
If the NAM is telling the truth, tornadoes would be very likely with any discrete storms in this area IMO. My only worries are how convection will evolve.
That is my biggest concern also...the cap erodes quickly and given all the forcing...sup's may evolve quickly into line segments with embeded sup's. Also, there will be a lot of convective debris left over from tonights MCS...we'll have to see how that plays out in the morning.

With this being said, I am kinda eyeing se KS into extreme n OK. The cap will be stronger and this may help keep storms more discrete. This may be a little of a wishcast bc I will be working in the area and can take off after work... :roll:
 
6/4

This could be a HIGH risk if the NAM verifies and convection initiates. I haven't seen 0-6 km shear like this across a wide area all of 2005 the night before a possible event. Surface winds should back in the afternoon due to the surface low deepening and helicity will be high shortly after 0 utc.

NE KS has best upper level diffluence and divergence. We might have a REAL dryline tomorrow for the first time in ages that can provide enough convergence for sustained thunderstorms. Setup reminds me a lot of 5/4/2003, which happens to be the last time I saw a tornado :x !

See ALL of you out there!
 
I'll be in Salina tomorrow for a Civil Air PAtrol conference so i'm out of the chase for the day :(

HEAD'S UP AND FYI: If things go down in NE and EC KS be advised - The entire area's gotten anywhere between 4-7" of rain in the last 48 hours and there are flood watches and warnings everywhere. Take it easy on anything other than blacktop and even keep an eye on those roads if we get any more rain.

Currently in Osage City we've had 5.25 inches per my guage since thursday morning.


JH
 
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