John Sickels
EF2
If I am reading the models correctly, it looks like the weekend of June 4-5 could be active in the central plains. A guesscast at this point, but it looks possible.
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6/4/05 TALK: Central Plains
- Thread starter John Sickels
- Start date
Anthony Silver
EF4
I agree with the last post. Looks like the Central Plains will have a nice swly flow at 500mb which should make for an interesting weekend. I just read the EAX Area forecast discussion, they're already mentioning the possibility of severe weather for next weekend which is highly unusual. Normally they wait until about 2-3 days out before putting that in their discussions. Some light at the end of the tunnel!
John Sickels
EF2
KICT
KICT also mentions the possiblity of severe weather over the weekend in their current outlook.
Given the weird pattern this spring, caution is warranted. It wouldn't surprise me if the setup gets delayed for another day or two. But it does look like the pattern shift will finally happen sometime in the 6-8 day period.
The question now is how long does the "spring like" pattern last until we transition to summer and the heat ridge appears?Lance Maxwell
EF2
I was just looking at the detailed forecast from OUN and noticed that dewpts this weekend are progged to be in the MID 70s....that's right, I said MID 70s! It's about time.
To me, the 500mb flow still looks a bit weak for my liking, but considering the ridiculous instability that should arise from the progged lapse rates and the 88/74 temp/dewpt profile, parameters should be more than sufficient.Anthony Silver
EF4
My guess is the "spring like" pattern will be around through most of the upcoming month based on the latest models, but since I'm no expert forecaster, that's just a shot in the dark at this point. I know June and July can be very bizzarre in terms of severe weather. You may have one or two years that are quiet, and nothing but heat and humidity prevail. Then you have those years that are jammed packed with severe weather. I've learned to never turn my back on June and July, as I've seen some awesome outbreaks in the past. Since this year's weather pattern has been so messed up, there's no telling what will happen by the end of the month.This setup may unfortunately end up being killed by overnight action which inhibits the daytime return flow, but regardless I believe the setup has promise. The 132 hour GFS shows a surface low drifting southward into the Texas panhandle by 0Z, which will help to back the surface winds even more. Above that lays a decent 40 knot 500 SW flow. 40 knots and 90 degrees of turning+ is enough for me. However, the latest HPC long range discussion mentions the GFS is ahead in the timing of the feature in the Plains. If this is so, we could be having this discussion about Sunday.
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
Boy, I'm really wishcasting at the moment, looking at the current GFS run for Saturday. Oh my my. You see, this is why I need to stop looking at 5 day model progs -- it's teasing me.
Here's hoping it doesn't move around much. That looks like a great setup for eastern NE. Sunday has a fuzzy sort of hope for Kansas, too.Anthony Petito
EF4
Since not many people get to see these, I figure I can go ahead and post instead of sending people PMs. If not, I can remove this post and not post the extended stuff anymore. But.. I figure since this weekend is shaping up to be a big event, it amy be worth it to see what SPC thinks long range.
Here is the Day 4-8 Discussion, starting on Saturday:
Mike Hollingshead
http://www.extremeinstability.com/stormpic...indsli_84hr.gif
From Earl's site Saturday morning via the 0z run last night. Surface winds look to be rather veered in the a.m. It might be hard to come up with any convergence in flow like that at the surface. Flying a kite might prove more fun than chasing that.
Ryan McGinnis
EF5
LOL. Clearly, the ETA is predicting a massive asteroid strike in Mexico!
Jayson Prentice
EF5
NAM doesn't look like a good run for Friday either... Something I think is wacky with the latest run. :roll:Mike Hollingshead
LOL, yep. Earl's been having some problems with graphics. I think now Saturday the eta might be trending towards the GFS's thoughts. I'm being pulled towards central or sw KS. Probably just have to go where the outflow boundary goes...hoping there is a good one.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta8...hr_sfc_mslp.gif
Not good for places further north. Could still get an ofb in IA somewhere I guess and have some excellent mid-level flow to work with but my bets are now on KS. Get south of KS and bye bye mid-level flow.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta8...hr_sfc_temp.gif
Eeek, lol. Going to likely need that though to break the cap. I'll wave the 'high lcls' flag now so no one has to bring it up to all us idiots chasing the non-dreamers out there.Mike Hollingshead
40-50 knots sw 500mb flow from KS to NE with a 994 sfc low in sw KS, a truckload of instability and likely outflow boundaries in the area. I think Friday is still safe.
Jayson Prentice
EF5
Thanks Mike... Had that little graphics problem... 8)Nic Wilson
EF2
Originally posted by Jayson Prentice
NAM doesn't look like a good run for Friday either... Something I think is wacky with the latest run. :roll:
The 72 and 84 hr runs of the NAM have performed ridiculously bad this year. Looks to be just a marginal SEV setup for Fri and Sat. Expect the 00z NAM run tonight to trend even more toward the GFS and weaken the 500mb flow. Winds are backed at 700mb in the area of quality 500mb flow and southerly sfc. winds as well, which doesn't get me excited at all. The ECMWF, which has been the most consistent mid-range model, lacks a surface focus besides up in the extreme Northern Plains (ND and MN). However, instability and moisture likely will not be sufficient for tornadoes in this area. My thoughts are looking ahead toward the next long wave trof coming on shore early next week, as it looks to have much more potential than this system.Similar threads
