6/4/05 TALK: Central Plains

[Kathryn Piotrowski]

targets on RUC

The early am RUC had three specific "targets" for explosive tornadic supercell development...one was near/east of Abilene KS(and likely the most serious one)...the second was north of the dryline bulge near Great Bend KS...and the third (also very scary) was near Wellington KS. Based on what the SPC Meso page was showing these look like realistic primed spots for the worst of the worst....later...maybe parts of NW Missouri and SW/SC Iowa also become "HOT" zones as the wave pivots into E.Nebraska and E.Kansas this evening. This setup has similarities to the nasty F5 which devastated Topeka KS on June 8, 1966. That particular tornado started 5 miles west of Auburn and ended just outside of Topeka. The interesting note is that this day has more of an outbreak setup than that day as the strong sheared and very unstable airmass covers a very large breadth area essentially along and east of a line from Norfolk NE to the OKC Metro. Here is the NWS Topeka historical review of that 6/8/66 F5 tornado...note the position of the warm front. This HIGH risk is very much warranted and there are not alot of contingencies that some HIGH risks have attached with them. Today is saying things WILL get nasty...not that if this and that happens, the outbreak may happen. Get ready and lets hope the public has their heads up and attention on the weather and not the lake...Today is ONE of those days that put chills into chasers and NWS offices/SPC on red alert....now to figure out that "BULLSEYE"....it is going to be tough as things will be a changin' as the warm front lifts northward by afternoon towards I-70. Good luck to all chasers today and here's to being safe...keeping the public well warned...and above all maximizing the time that all spring long we have waited for....



http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/tor66.html

Report filed by Brian Stertz from Wichita KS

 

[Scott Taylor]

Originally posted by Philip Flory
I just woke up-- will post a more detailed post in the near future.


After glancing at some OBS and RUC data, I am wondering if my best bet may be to stay around ICT into the early afternoon. Set up in SC/SE KS looks plenty favorible for supercells/tornadoes and may even be somewhat more isolated than farther north. I know most people will target NE KS and most everyone will likely be up there, im not ruling that out yet. Im just saying I would not rule out a significant event down here today either.

Also agree here Philip. I'm not sure you can go wrong being in any of the places we've mentioned so far, but I decided to stay put here in McPherson since I can blast in any direction if necessary.

I'm alone so if you see a green Dodge Intrepid with AR plates, say Hi! =)

Scott

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Im currently in Ft. Scott KS making my way northward towards Emporia.. once there I'll see where to head... if you see me don't be shy.. Good luck everyone!

 

[Stacy C. Young]

I just pulled out a surface map and a few of the stats from 05/04/03 and it looks to be fairly similar. The only significant difference I can see is the expanded coverage they are predicting right now for the "High Risk".

It is 06/04/05 anything weird about that???

Just an interesting little comparison I suppose. I think I will aim about 25 mi west of topeka and just hang out. If you see that Red, Lowered Dodge Ram...Stop by and say hi....

 

[Mike Parker]

Hey John Sickels, thanks for freaking out my wife. We live in Ottawa. :lol: I will be targeting my backyard today. Good luck to all. Watch out for the dirt roads, very nasty here.

 

[Tony Laubach]

Be safe out there today guys... day 3 of great chasing weather and I again am sidelined because of work obligations... more frustrations in a frustrating season...

Stay on your toes today and be alert... today looks to be one of those days that will be talked about for quite some time. Major metro areas could be affected today and many people will be in the paths.. good luck, be safe, and happy hunting.

 

[John Sickels]

dream

The dream was very intense. I wrote it all down when I woke up about 3 am. . .including a map of the damage tracks.

I think it was just a stupid dream, but when I got up this morning and saw the High Risk, it made me wonder.

The day certainly has a "tornadoey" feel to it. Muggy and close outside here in Lawrence.

Good luck to all chasers today, and let's pray that the storms stay outside the metro areas and the various towns.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Also, since Kathryn made the connection with the similarities to 1966, there were multiple storms producing tornadoes that day as well ... one that folks tend to forget about was the tornado that also ripped through Manhattan, KS and took out part of the university campus ... I'm thinking that this is a good comparison, and that targeting further west might be a better plan today. It's pretty tough to tear myself from home on a day like this, though - on the 29th last year I was on the Concordia storms while a mean F4 was ripping through much closer to home. Lots of decisions to be made here - - -

 

[Ryan McGinnis]

Targeting northeast Kansas today. Looks like the Armageddeon day of the year. Can't see how you can go wrong!

Here's hoping none of these storms go through large cities. Could be a bad day.

 

[Cindy Simons]

Waiting it out in West Des Moines

I woke up to an uneasy feeling. Once I saw the SPC high risk map, I now know why. :shock:

I'm stuck at home with my 2 year old and 4 year old sons today.

If you pass through Des Moines, feel free to contact me and/or stop by. I live near the I-35 / I-80 interchange on the west side.

Stay safe everyone!

 

[Jay McCoy]

My vacation ended yesterday and I had to be at work this morning so I guess Kanani and I are the sacrificial lambs who miss out on the big day so everybody else can score.

I like the I-70 area west of Topeka. I sent one of my chase buddies to Junction City as a start. Its far enough west to play the dryline and should be due east of the low as it comes through. I expect more HPish storms north but hopefully he is south enough to be able to see. With the strong forcing this should be an early initiation day with storms breaking out by 1900z-2000z. I expect the first watch by 1830z.

Just wish I could be there to play with everybody else :cry:

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Current boundary positions:

Compared with 1966:

This is strikingly similar alright - looks like a cloned setup of 1966.

 

[JHadorn]

Re: Waiting it out in West Des Moines

Originally posted by Cindy Simons
I woke up to an uneasy feeling. Once I saw the SPC high risk map, I now know why. :shock:

I'm stuck at home with my 2 year old and 4 year old sons today.

If you pass through Des Moines, feel free to contact me and/or stop by. I live near the I-35 / I-80 interchange on the west side.

Stay safe everyone!

Heh. I think I drove through that area at least twice a year from 2001 - 2003.

I'll be playing it close to home today. I'm still tired from getting no sleep Thursday night, and after marathon driving from Beatrice to Milford and back I have no desire to trek out.

Certainly can't go wrong with my strategery.

 

[Tony Laubach]

From my blog to everyone today...

Chasers from all over the country are converging over an area encircled with a red line penciled in by an SPC forecaster at 6:08 CDT this morning. The first real HIGH RISK of the season has been issued for a large part of the Plains, including Eastern Kansas, Western Missouri, Southeast Nebraska, and Southwest Iowa. Was rather surprised at this being as yesterday's Day 2 didn't even have a MODERATE out for the area. My surprise wasn't quite as bad as the Day 2 DID have a hatched area for today. Was just amazed to see this evolve so quickly.

I, obviously, am screwed for the third day in a row. A season of frustrations continues to amplify for me as for the third day in a row of good weather, am confined to earning a paycheck. Thursday's big day in Colorado; yesterday's mess in Southeast Denver; and the final nail in the coffin, today's potential HIGH RISK out east. I'm bummed... this really sucks. I'm not sure how much harder I can get slapped with all of this. Three days.. the ONLY three days I've had to be at work in the last MONTH and they're the best days of the season. I've said it a few times in the past couple days, and I'll say it again... I'd rather cap bust bad setups as opposed to not being able to go out on great setups. This hurts. I've been a frustrated chaser the passed couple days... today just iced it. Yeah, I have the next 4 days off after today... not much good it's gonna do I'm afraid... 2005 is quickly falling into the crapper as it seems Nature locked into my work schedule. And I know, I know.. there are dozens of others in the same boat, and I'm sure they're quietly (or not so) bitching to themselves about missing today... I guess I feel extremely shafted cause the last two days have been backyard events I couldn't make. Today, I feel like everyone else stuck with other obligations, except that I have two backyard days compounding my frustrations. This sucks... easily the hardest and worst part of chasing is this... not being able to go out.

I wish the best of luck and safety to all those out today. I know many who can't chase today who live in the above mentioned area, so even those people will find themselves eyeing the skies. Today's one of those days where chasers earn their reputations for the community. Remember, you're first mission today is the safety and protection of the people and yourselves. Major metropolitan areas potentially lie in the paths of storms today, storms that could drop devestating tornadoes. The citizens of those areas rely on your eyes to make sure they're safe from harm. And when they're not, they rely on your eyes to let them know its coming. Fortunately the Saturday timing dramatically decreases the rush hour scenario, but at the same time, likely means many people will be out at malls, parks, etc. Those people may have little warning today if something develops. Please be on your toes for your sake and the sake of others. There are many reckless and careless chasers who will also be joining the ranks of the responsible and safety minded this afternoon, and today's that type of day where that fooling around will get someone killed. Please, be safe, be responsible, and be alert. I bid God's speed to everyone today, not just the chasers, but the residents of the towns and cities which potentially lie in the paths today. A chaser always wishes for days like this, and hopefully, it'll happen over unpopulated areas where the human impact is kept to an absolute minimum. And a last note to chasers, don't venture where your guardian angels won't... good luck and happy hunting...

 

[John Sickels]

dream

Here is a map of the tornado paths that I had the dream about. I made a drawing of this at 3 am and have made a .gif version. If anyone wants to look at it, click on link.

http://images.minorleagueball.com/images/a...ornadodream.GIF

Anyway, I'll shut up about it now.