6/4/05 TALK: Central Plains

[John Sickels]

stuff

If the mesoscale page is to be believed, the cap is already eroding over SE Kansas.

How long before SPC gets a watch up? Given the possibilities of the day, it may make sense to get one up within the next hour so as to raise public consciousness on a Saturday afternoon.

 

[Brett Adair]

If I were playing in the Plains today, my target would have to be Attica-Wichita KS just because of my luck there basically.

The 5000 CAPE speading northward and the already weakening cap might have a little something to do with it too. EHI's to 3 at the 1 km level over ICT already.

Happy chasing!

 

[John Farley]

I'm also at Flying J in Emporia - thinking I'll probably move up to Topeka, but watching data for now. Still like the area just N of Topeka - but don't want to end up on the wrong side of the river in that area (if only I knew now what the RIGHT side will be!).

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Well, I too am one of those that got the shaft today. I promised a good friend that I would pick her up from the OKC airport today at 4pm so I am pretty much SOL.

Now, onto my forecast.....as I was telling some of the other OU chasers down here this morning, and as some other members of the board have posted earlier today, if I was to be picking a target, I would choose the area just west of I35 near Blackwell, OK. After looking at the latest RUC data, as well as overlaying that with the potential chaser convergence in KS, I would choose to stay in the more "isolated" region down south.

My wish today is that something will go up around the OKC area near 5pm so I can get her back home and then jet out to a storm. I am going to keep my fingers crossed.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Looks like another north vs. south target setup today ... northern bullseye will probably be seeing the usual HP monster mess, while the southern target gets its yearly famous, high-profile, high-visibility, high-contrast dance of the twisters. Nevertheless, I'm sticking with the original northern target area today as it is close to home and I don't dare go too far on a day like this. Sorry to all of you who cannot venture out today - really surprised how many are confined for one reason or another, but I've been there many times and know exactly what it feels like.

 

[Joel Wright]

Also of interesting note, the RUC and the NAM seem to develop storms up the SW/NE oriented warmfront/dewpoint line from eastern KS into southern IA later this afternoon. This boundary could focus some big storms too in northern MO southern IA unless it mixes out. If it doesn't mix out, then these storms could become quite interesting as well.


Edit: Cloud fields are rappidly forming up this boundary as well...

 

[Jeff Lawson]

Originally posted by Joel Wright
Also of interesting note, the RUC and the NAM seem to develop storms up the SW/NE oriented warmfront/dewpoint line from eastern KS into southern IA later this afternoon. This boundary could focus some big storms too in northern MO southern IA unless it mixes out.

I have a feeling this boundary will be our primary focus today. Emporia's probably a good place to be.

Some potential headaches, however: terrain in that part of KS can be a little frustrating in spots, and storms could be move into KC pretty quickly. Southern target chasers may have an easier day ahead of them.

I'm still in Omaha...going to grab a bite to eat, and make the call. I'm less inclined to get too far west, so I'd probably drop south on 75 toward Topeka. I'm not too happy about chasing extreme NE KS, however.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Re: stuff

Originally posted by John Sickels
If the mesoscale page is to be believed, the cap is already eroding over SE Kansas.

Just as an observation... There have been numerous days (many more than not) on which the RUC / SPC Mesoanalysis has handled cap analysis very poorly. The local minima and maxima are probably pretty good in terms of location, but I'd strongly caution to take the magnitude of CINH with a big grain of salt. Numerous times this year the mesoanaly has shown very weak / no CINH, yet later soundings and lack of convection obviously showed this to be highly erroneous. Not saying this is the case now, but just keep this in mind.

This setup has a lot going for it, though it's far from perfect or being a slam-dunk IMO. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

One area that has received little attention today that could create a great deal of interest is the NW TX/SW OK area. Looking at the latest mesoscale analysis, the cap has already been eroded down there with SigTor already at 2 in a large area of NW TX. The RUC also breaks out precip in this area so it bears watching.

 

[Ben Prusia]

Holly and myself are at the Burger King in Topeka at I-70 and Wanamaker Road. It is very soupy out here, the Kestrel 3500 measured an air temperature of 85 degrees with a dewpoint of 70.5 degrees. It is clearing out here in W Topeka after driving through a few sprinkles between Topeka and Lawrence. We will decide within a few minutes of a target area.

 

[John Sickels]

jeff

Jeff: absolutely right, which is why I wrote "if the mesoscale page is to be believed"....because I'm not sure I believe it.

 

[Chris Sokol]

Looks like my hunch might pay off:

THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COULD BE UPGRADED TO
HIGH RISK LATER TODAY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?warn...Weather+Outlook

Ponca City was a good choice.

 

[Mikel Shively]

NEW MD OUT FOR NORTHERN KANSAS....sounds like they are planning to go ahead and issue a watch

 

[Tony Laubach]

Talk about out of the way, but spotters reporting a tornado with the storm near Ogallala, Nebraska ATTM. Radar looks rather unimpressive, so can't imagine this to be a strong, damaging tornado by any stretch, but a tornado none-the-less. One of the first tornadoes of the day not even in a risk area! :lol:

 

[bill mudd]

interesting eatern Nebraska has just been boxed as a result of that report
and this area wasnt in the high risk even more interesting - this could be quite the day....