6/4/05 TALK: Central Plains

[Chris Sokol]

Well...not many changes to the 2000Z outlook, although the 15% hatched area now includes most of Central OK, almost to the Red River. No High Risk for OK, but we may not need it...

 

[Tony Laubach]

Storm report out of Circleville, Kansas for hail... I grew up in Circleville, Ohio and didn't know there was one of those in Kansas, too! That's kind of funny!


Anywoo, storms firing quickly in that area near Circleville... severe warning are up for those cells.

 

[Joey Ketcham]

Chris Hayes and I are sitting at Flying J's still in emporia watching a few CU towers go up.. still sunshine, hot and humid...

 

[Dick McGowan]

Sitting at the Amerisuites in Topeka , KS. Watching storm to our north explode. Passed "violent skies" tour and also a Skywarn spotter on I 70. Might jog down 75 or I 35. Too late for brown co storm. Good luck to all.

 

[Joe Zemek]

Going to head west a bit into hopefully clearer skies and more chase territory prior to MO River. Thinking cap will erode N to S along boundary and the better storm will be further S.

We're in the electric-lime green Saturn Ion

 

[Tony Laubach]

That northern most cell in Kansas (northeast of Manhatten) looks like it developed a small hook in that last scan (4:22p CDT)... imagine that'll go TORNADO WARNED here very soon.

EDIT

4:26 scan shows even better hook now... Nemaha County and Brown County will go TORN warned here quick if another scan holds that hook...

 

[Tony Laubach]

Looks like another PDS Tornado Watch just went up for Southern Kansas/Central Oklahoma as well...

 

[Jason Persoff]

Like the area around Emporia more...

I have been following this very closely over the past hour. The cells forming behind the warm front over NE KS do not look as good as I think the area around Emporia looks for the next hour. The storms in NE KS appear somewhat linear in configuration with anvil blowoff essentially paralleling the front and I worry that that will end up potentially being a mess.

What interests me more is the area around Emporia. Dry line is mixing rapidly east...and I mean rapidly. About an hour ago the dryline was near DDC and now appears already to have mixed as far east as ICT. I see it taking on a very strong dry punch based on satellite with the "punch" located just S of ICT. I think Emporia better take shelter now. The Cu field there is very close to the ground (almost no shadow on last scan). Expect initiation in the next 30-60 mins. Suspect right on the northern end of the dry punch winds will back (as they did in DDC right before the dryline mixed there), the cells will be discrete, and rapidly tornadic.

Just my $0.02. But now I have to get back to my 17th patient of the day. Oh to be back on the Plains! .

Just so I can live vicariously...anyone who needs a brief nowcast, feel free to give me a buzz at 904-953-7812 or 904-343-4325.

 

[Tony Laubach]

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
EASTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS.

Storm went up in a hurry! Right on I-135 south of Salina right now hauling NE; long lived cell from that spot could hit Manhattan dead on if it maintained that track.

Storms firing southward now; storms up north looking to be lining out a bit; isolated cells going down south in a hurry. Jump on them early or you will be chasing.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Tornado Watch in Wisconsin now. Earlier had two bow echoes here that split and missed my location completely

Oh well...two confirmed tornadoes out of Wisconsin so far. Looks like the big show is starting to the southwest though. We may get in on some of that tommorrow.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Jason Persoff]

My bet: Emporia by 4:30pm

Okay...not much one for strong, strong predictions, but just in the past 15 mins the vis over the area west of Emporia has shown explosive development. I bet we'll see large tornadoes relatively rapidly in this area. There is also a tongue of higher Tds in this vicinity and the sat looks very surface based. In fact, highest Tds are right in front of the dryline...I cannot imagine a more ideal day

Would also add that the cells forming in NE KS are all tracking parallel to the boundary with anvils blowing in the same direction. I guess I would targe the cells developing north of Hutchinson if I were there and try to get on the furthest south cell. I think these other cells will be explosive but then will be gobbled by the newer cells.

Also: big TCu by itself...looks like it's around Lawton OK...still no radar returns...is developing in a gigantic Cu field. I like that area as well as it too is on a well-formed dryline.

 

[Kiel Ortega]

Hoping this first cell in Grady Co OK stays going...moving right at Norman...be nice not to have to move, though it should leave any possible tornadoes in the sky if it wants to move this way

 

[Jay Press]

A PDS now in effect for SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS and WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. Already 4 tornadoes today and it's early!

 

[Tony Laubach]

New red box for Northern and West-Central Texas... busy day already...

 

[Tony Laubach]

The storm east of Salina has a nice signature on radar as it is close to moving into Dickinson County where a TORNADO WARNING was just issued... storm has a mean core and good hook on it as it prepared to move into Dickinson County.