5/9/04 FCST: Central Plains/Dryline

[Mike Peregrine]

I see we already have a topic set up for the Great Lakes ... what's the rule on this, do we need to set up a different topic for every region or should we start compiling them together? - Let me know ...

In the meantime, I'm wanting to get some discussion rolling about the possibility of the DL/CF in the central plains tomorrow ...

Synopsis - Instability looks to be a result of daytime heating, as a deep upper level disturbance moves eastward across the US/Canada border. The resulting cold front/dryline should trail across South Dakota, Nebraska and Kansas. There should be some deep convergence for storms to feed off of until sunset at least. And now I'm wondering if the outflow boundaries laid out by the storms this evening may be able to interract with the setup to produce some fireworks here and there ... feel free to discuss ... I'm all ears ...

 

[William Combes]

Agreed Mike... I just came up to OKC today from Austin. We'll start our week of chasing tomorrow and I'm targeting NC Kansas into NE. I'm just glad I picked this week to chase!!!!!!!!!!!! Maybe we'll see you out there.

-Bill Combes - F5 Tornado Safaris

 

[Austin Ivey]

Though its spatially displaced from ANY good upper flow, I'm interested in a possible boudary left over from tonights convective complex in the LBB area for chasing prospects tomorrow. Though it may be too far east from the DL convergence tomorrow. See current LBB radar.


ABQ AFD for DL activity tomorrow:

DRYLINE SHOULD GET A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE SUN AFTN AND EVE ACROSS E NM WITH HELP OF SLOW MOVING SHORT
WAVE ENTERING SW NM. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH THIS SCENARIO WOULD
BE IF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS BECOME TOO EXTENSIVE...THUS LIMITING
HEATING. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

 

[Carrie Halliday]

I was kind of wondering if the plains would light up today too. Am watching the cold front slated to come my way this week and hoping it fires off something I can appreciate.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Observations - Last night's convection has propagated to the south into Kansas, but is quickly burning off ... blowoff from anvils ranges to the northeast through Nebraska and Iowa, but is also quickly dissapating ... there is already direct sunlight in much of the central plains, including Iowa and Minnesota. Convection is also occuring in the Dakotas presently.

Models - from RUC2:

Theta-E, winds - 9hr, valid 21z: shows Theta-E and sfc winds along dryline running from NC Kansas to the northeast through the SW tip of Nebraska into Iowa.

http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_RUC_900_G...WINDRH_09HR.gif

The 12hr map quickly shows the dryline pushing further east ...

500mb winds, vorticity - 12hr, valid 0z Mon ... Indicates highest vorticity in Minnesota into NW Iowa: http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_RUC_500_G...NDVORT_12HR.gif

The 9hr map indicates highest voriticity in NW Iowa as well.

9hr CAPE, SWEAT and 0-3km shear:
http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_RUC236_SV...EATSRH_09HR.gif

9hr lapse rates, 0-3km shear, 0-3km CAPE: http://www.wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_RUC236_0-...E-RATE_09HR.gif

I think after looking at these, it is quite possible - if not likely that we will see action further south into south-central Nebraska and possbily even North-Central Kansas. The lapse rates with this system are quite steep, so I feel that initiation remains quite likely. However, because the best shear will likely be pinpointed over NE Nebraska and NW Iowa (again), I will probably head up there pretty soon. I am still thinking that it's looking good today -

 

[Billy Griffin]

central - west Kansas

I am wondering what the outflow boundary from the now-weakening MCS over central Kansas will do for any meso-focus of activity in the west-central Kansas area ?? Any thoughts?

 

[Mike Peregrine]

Billy - I have to wonder the same thing - even though outflow boundaries have not yet been mentioned in the Day One - (probably because it has been difficult to judge whether that MCS would continue to weaken, or if it would gain strength from a fairly favorable wind environment in Kansas right now) ... but judging from the way it is coming apart right now, I just have to think that we could see further convection igniting on those outflow boundaries this afternoon ... there's got to be a lot going on at the surface because of those storms - so if anything manages to get going, we could wind up with backed winds and funky boundaries all over Kansas ... it's certainly possible, though difficult to call as always - will be interesting to see if there is any further language about that included in the next Day One.

 

[Billy Griffin]

kansas

Good point !! Looking at the surface maps & data, winds are backing quie well, as anticipated, just south of the storm complex.

Ex: Great Bend, Hutchinson, Medicine Lodge, even points further west are showing typical temps/points in the 70 over 60 range.

If this complex interacts with the dryline in far western Kansas, it could be interesting !! But you're absolutely right, that's very difficult to forecast and really depends on a lot of variables still yet to be determined.

Since I live about an hour north of Amarillo, it's not possible for me to think of a chase up to Iowa or Nebraska today. However... western Kansas isn't at all out of range. Typical three-four hour trip depending on where I go (and how fast :lol: ). I think I'll wait and see what the noon outlook says and see if there's any mention of focus in western Kansas.

Have fun today !! Sounds like the next few days could be interesting, and I can only hope that the latter part of the week gives us some action down here in the southern Plains.

Regards to all,
Billy Griffin

 

[Mike Peregrine]

One other caveat I guess I should throw out there ... in some ways SC Neb and NC KS may even end up being better because of how quickly it looks like the CF will be moving further north ... it may be that storms will quickly blow up and become linear up there ... still going to chance it further north myself though ... anxious to see how it turns out -

 

[Fritz Kruse]

Kansas will be Crap!

Other than a few hailers or strong wind gusts...the 500mb flow only 5 to 10 knots....yuck, I would rather eat 100 peeps than chase outlfow dominated crapus with scud tags.

For those who have not yet seen the Peeps Page:
http://www.ericisgreat.com/100peeps/index.html

Ok now that I jinxed Kansas, there will be a tornado outbreak

 

[Mike Peregrine]

100 peeps eh ... now that's an aversion to outflowish storms ... I'm in Missouri Valley, IA right now looking at data ... anxious to see what happens up here this afternoon ... may head a bit further north after I look at things - we'll see.

If anyone is out and wants to chat about it, cell is 816-351-1404 ...

have fun out there today -

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Hey Mike!

Mike,

I'm seeing clouds popping up on the GOES-10 Current ARM Sector shot in the SW corner of NE. NWS Radar out of North Platte NE showing small clouds but no t-storms yet. This is almost the same scenario that we had yesterday when the first storms fired up close to McCook, NE.

How does things look from your perspective?? In case you didn't know, a severe storm watch was posted for MI some time ago. I'm at home in Lincoln NE, doing some armchair storm chasing and keeping my wife and daughter company. 8) LJK.

 

[Mike Peregrine]

From here there are some whispy high cirrus and a few CU here and there ... temp is around 80 ... dewpoint 70.1 ... will probably go NW and follow the storms back to the SE - - hopefully - thanks Larry -

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Clouds in Northeast NE

Mike,

I see some clouds developing both on the GOES-10 and on the NWS Radar for Hastings (Omaha radar is cluttered). The location is NE of Columbus and SE of Norfolk moving east at a undetermined speed.

If Missouri Valley is where I think it is (NE of Omaha?), you may want to run up the river and see what develops from that group.

Just keeping you informed. 8) LJK.

 

[Larry J. Kosch]

Dryline in Texas Firing Up

Hey, there's action in Texas after all! Looks like the dryline in the Texas Panhandle is moving and there are mesos going up. There's one nice one west of Amarillo, TX. Last radar sceen shows its dying down, but others are going up now. 8) LJK.