5/13/05 TALK: Southern Plains

[Tom Dulong]

Originally posted by Kiel Ortega
very young meso seems to be in the cottle co storm...any chasers out there might want to stay out of the RFD area today (given yesterday and 67.5 return on north edge of developing rotation)

From Norman, OK WFO Severe wx stmt...
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT 415 PM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PADUCAH BY THE PADUCAH FIRE DEPARTMENT.

 

[Tom Dulong]

VIL on this storm now 65+, so look for hail > 2 inches diameter northeast
of town of Paducah.

 

[Dick McGowan]

Gr 3 is showing 100% POSH with 3.75 hail!!! Uh, oh!

 

[Karen Politte]

The Paducah storm appears to have thrown off its first left split. Despite other storms firing north of this one - it still appears to be the only game in town for now.

Sitting here disgusted, in the office in Norman.

KR

 

[Tom Dulong]

Severe Tstm Warnings just issued for Hardeman and Foard Ctys, TX...
looks like they are expecting right-movement (no surprise).

 

[B Ozanne]

Cells in Collingsworth and Childress counties are going to line out. Some more discrete cells popping in Gray and Roberts County (all in TX).

 

[Kiel Ortega]

70.5 dbZ on the composite...looks to be moving more right...awesome flanking line, however some of the flanking towers looking a little too strong...hmmmmmm.....

 

[Tom Dulong]

From the LBB NWS...
BASEBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT 433 PM 10 MILES EAST BY THE
PADUCAH FIRE DEPARTMENT.

 

[Alex Lamers]

Cottle County cell has split and dominant cell looks very interesting now. Potential area for tornado development as of 442 PM looked to be about 7.5 miles northeast of Paducah on US Hwy 70. Looks like portions of US Hwy 70 between Cottle and Foard Counties will get slammed here. A merger with a flanking line cell could help trigger a tornado or perhaps even developing outflow. I'd head to that area for a tornado in the next hour.

...Alex Lamers...

 

[Mike Umscheid]

Welp, we can see the upper reaches of this storm from the DDC radar... our 1.5 slice is able to see echo at 66,000ft MSL.. Watch out folks.

Mike U

 

[B Ozanne]

Cottle County has split and is moving southeast now into Foard County, Red River wont' be an issue if you follow the right moving cell.

 

[Tom Dulong]

Isolated supercell to the west near Silverton, TX bears watching. It is not as big as the Cottle County cell but has the same flying eagle appearance on
radar. There is a severe tstm warning on it right now and it is along the dry line.

 

[Jeff Snyder]

Just saw a decent wall-cloud on the storm south of Erick in western Oklahoma on News9 out of OKC, with weak/moderate rotation noted on KFDR radar. Storm leaving Cottle county has right-turned hard, with motion now ESE. In addition, gorilla hail likely given very high reflectivity core aloft ( >65 dBz at 22000ft!). SPC mesoanalysis showing ~4000 CAPE near southern storm, with weak-moderate deep-layer shear (40kts). While direction shear is good, speed shear is rather weak, yielding 0-3km SRH near 100-150 m2/s2 which is pretty poor. That said, the storm is experiencing SRH much higher than that owing to it's strongly-deviant righward motion, so SRH is probably about 100-150 more than SPC mesoanalysis is showing. In addition, LCLs remain at the upper-bound of what's generally considered favorable for tornadoes -- with LCLs in the 1400-1600m range.

 

[Cstok]

OK I sit here in boring sunny S. Cal, on another day glued to the PC crying into the keyboard... Has anyone spoken to somebody in the field to get an eye witness account?

 

[Tom Dulong]

Cottle County cell now has a double meso structure and is back-building to the southwest. It may be about to split. It that's the case, then the best place to be in the next 45 minutes would be northeast King County (all in TX).