5/13/05 TALK: Southern Plains

:?

Add me to the dork list. Sitting here impotently in OUN at work in the office unable to go anywhere until 5pm. Seems there are two plays today - either SW OK on the outflow boundary, or the northern OK boundary target perhaps just east of Alva. I don't know if I can make either at 5pm.

Gene left to chase today with Hank Baker (that makes me feel wonderful) - so should I hear any reports of anything interesting going on - I will likely relay them here just to feel like I remain part of the loop that I am effectively cut out of today.

I don't have a great feeling for today - but that's just me, and a result of getting home at 1.30am with 1500 miles on the clock and nothing to show for it after two days of terrific storms across the Plains. I suspect that we may have a problem realizing the shear everybody wants to see.

KR
 
Me and Kurt Hulst are in Childress, TX (where we spent the night) right now sitting around the area with Amos Magliocco, Jason Montano, Scott Eubanks and Tony Laubach. PLENTY of sunshine here with a 75/68 T/TD...
 
Quite an impressive mesolow forming near Plainview at 18:30z. Winds strongly backed and moisture pooling east and southeast of this feature; CDS dewpoint increased 6F since 13z. Helicities should be fair in the backed winds ahead of this feature. Slow moving outflow currently south of CDS stretching east should lay across the river by 22z. I'm interested to see if storms can fire in the CAPE max forecast west of CDS by 12z RUC and move along the boundary.
 
New MD just issued noting red box will be issued within the hour, with likely initation in our EXACT location. Stuff should fire around here by 3:00 PM to 4:00 PM...
 
Wow, its toasty and sticky here! Sitting in Childress, Texas along with everyone else waiting around for our first pop-ups! Very warm and humid; MD out for us (thanks for the great MD Roger). Just watching and waiting!

[Broken External Image]:http://www.tornadoeskick.com/images/current.jpg

And the tornado sirens just went off?!?! What the... :lol: Just testing them out for later, I guess! *LOL*
 
Tony, yeah, heard that... We were all wondering what was up with that, too! :lol:

Red box has now just been issued valid until 9:00 PM...
 
another "dork" update:

Radar showing some bubbling starting just ne of Paducah, TX towards Quanah, and picking up a line of tops extending on up to the ne as far as Caddo County OK
 
Red box just issued for the area by SPC. I like the dryline bulge starting just west of CDS. Wild dewpoint depression near LBB west of the line. This is going to be an afternoon of some explosive development soon. 500mb wave coming into W TX now with 50KTs deep layer shear. Action will begin in the next hour or so. Thing is....LCL's are rising quickly as LCL-LFC RH values are terrible. EHI's have dropped off to 1 as SRH has exited the region. The outflow boundary looks to be the area to play this afternoon.
 
Yet another dork update...armchair nowcasting from UCAR/Boulder CO

Enhanced cu along sw-ne boundary in Carson and Armstrong Ctys, TX
 
Speed max per vis sat and water vapor moving over E NM right now...look for things to get busy in the vicinity of Quanah-Childress by 4.
 
D.O.R.K.2 reporting in.....

There IS an area of agitated cu in Childress/Cottle/Motley counties TX. - with pieces of the convection ripping into SW OK - but things look like they'll take a while before anything really focuses.

Somewhat worrying is the apparent erosion of the cu field in a pocket just south of Jericho TX. Now this may just be the boundary beginning to sharpen up with convection......but overall over the past few satellite scans the llvl cu seems to be eroding slightly in areas.

Lucky it's not a PDS box out there......that'd ensure bustolas everywhere.

KR
 
Originally posted by Karen Rhoden
Additional -

The AMA webcam concerns me:

http://www.kvii.com/weather/683492.html

Cu appear flat and unanimate. The dryline now worries me.

Somebody maybe should remember about the OK boundary up north.....hint-hint.

KR
Click to expand...

AMA is behind dryline and in an area of very little surface...[EDIT] IF ANY...convergence...the day still looks ugly for picnics in the Red River Valley[/b]
 
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