2012 Long Range Model Discusssion (> 7 Days Out)
- Thread starter Mark Blue
- Start date
Eric Bucsela
EF2
Some consistency now among the models (ensembles and deterministic) that at least a weak version of the low will still be over some part of the GOM around then. Nevertheless, GFS still manages to get mid 60s dews into the northern Plains! Also looks like general agreement with the Euro for some sort of trough in the W/NW part of the country in that time frame - and the guys at Climate Prediction Center are starting to believe it too - they also enhance precip chances over the Central/Northern Plains.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forec...h America!024!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!
Too far away to make meaningful predictions, but if I were committed to a chasecation for that week, I might feel a bit better.
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Derek Weston
EF5
Right. Last 2/3 days have been trending towards a setup in the northern plains. GFS has been on this for a bit. (like Kelly said, look for consistency, nothing too specific)
That said... sort of looks like a summer CF type setup... so hoping for something more.
ericjkelly
EF4
Agree that there is some hope now for those of us who have chase cations next week. GFS is showing decent CAPE, Shear, etc on Thur, Fri, and Sat in the Dakota's. Have never chased there! Could be fun!
Laura Duchesne
EF5
South Dakota offers some fine chasing... if you get a decent setup there, you usually are not left disappointed 
I'm also keeping an eye on memorial weekend, GFS has a bigger system moving that could bring some fun. I know it is fantasy land, but things are starting to finally come together.
I'm also keeping an eye on memorial weekend, GFS has a bigger system moving that could bring some fun. I know it is fantasy land, but things are starting to finally come together.
George Grant
EF1
I don't know about less chasers or tv shows; I distinctly remember passing the Dominator on June 17, 2009, as it sat along the shoulder of US34 with many other chasers. That was the day of the Grand Island tornado. Don't know why everyone insists on calling it the Aurora tornado. I was taking RFD winds on US281--in Grand Island--as the sirens went off and followed it along US34 towards Aurora.
So, Joel, it's either chatting in the Iam's Pet food plant parking lot or suds in the Old Market!
George
Andy Jackson
EF3
The 18th looks like the first ample shear/moisture setup in ND, but could be extremely capped. The days prior to this has LCL's pretty high. After that there is a nice trough that may or may not occur.
Matthew Crowther
EF3
I see little hope for a really good setup for at least 10 days. The next weekend system will be way up in the Dakotas and may have moisture problems, after that the ensembles are going back to a ridge. It may be Memorial Day weekend before this awful pattern relents and there is no guarantee of that.
Kevin Walters
EF2
I'm not giving up.....did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor??? I'm not giving up!
It seems May often does this kind of thing, we all remember the significant events from the past that happened in May, but there were also years when May stunk.
Terrence Cook
EF2
Perhaps we have some Nazis on this forum that could chime in on the next modified trough of deception¿
David Wolfson
EF5
"Never give up! Never give in!" So Winston Churchill said after the Japanese bombed London.
AFA the long range models are concerned, the persistent tendency for troughing over the Great Lakes and East Coast choking low level moisture return still seems to be winning out and still sucks two weeks out.
AFA the long range models are concerned, the persistent tendency for troughing over the Great Lakes and East Coast choking low level moisture return still seems to be winning out and still sucks two weeks out.
Ben Toms
EF0
Has anybody noticed that the GFS is wanting to continue an abnormally strong subtropical jet and develop another upper low down there starting around the 180 hour range and on past that? I think this is the issue we're still running into. We're getting a low developing down there which shunts the northern troughing even further north, keeping northern Mexico and southern Texas in play but ridging out the Central Plains. Maybe this is the opposite of that and the fact that the polar troughing is staying so far north is leading to the development of the low, but it's something to look at. Every time this Mexico 500mb low goes away on the GFS runs, we get a massive dooms day trough kicking straight through the plains.
Michael O'Keeffe
I know this has nothing to do with the thread but the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor not the Germans. Pearl Harbor is in Hawaii. Sorry but it was bothering me lol.
Kevin Walters
EF2
Michael O'Keeffe
Not according to Bluto.
Forget it he's rolling.
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