Brett Nickeson
EF2
True, but the risk/reward of chasing a single marginal day hours away is just too great to justify the vast majority of the time. Therein lies the problem for those that need to be selective during poor years.
Chase Season 2021 In Review
- Thread starter JamesCaruso
- Start date
John Farley
Supporter
I know it has been a pretty iffy year for a lot of chasers, as have most years (at best) recently. Still, it kind of startles me when I hear people say things like "It's been years since I've seen a nice lone supercell." I was lucky enough to see those on several days in May this month, but when I saw this map in the "State of the Chase Season" thread, I began to understand a little better why my experiences this year have differed at least somewhat from those of some others:
Living in the Southwest, I am mostly a southern plains chaser, and all of my chases have been in areas that are blue on this map, in the Pueblo, Albuquerque, Amarillo, and Lubbock CWAs. And as I said in my previous post, I would rate this season as slightly above average for me - not great, but apparently better than the experience of some others. Although one thing I would note about this map, as I understand it, is that in each CWA it is comparing this year to other years in the same CWA. So that does not mean in an absolute sense that these areas have been more active than others, just that they have been more active relative to past years in the same CWA. That said, there were a lot of marginal days that produced SOMEWHERE in May in each of these CWAs, though it was often far from obvious where they would produce on any given day. Still, if you chased quite a bit in these areas, there is a decent chance that you did OK. I suppose one other thing that helps is that I am retired and to some extent have the freedom to go when the setup looks good - although there were plenty of days when I did not or could not chase that produced pretty well somewhere.
On a slightly different note, but still relevant to this thread, I have now completed chase logs for all the days I have chased so far this year, all in May. You can access any or all of my logs for this season at www.johnefarley.com/svrwx2021.htm
Living in the Southwest, I am mostly a southern plains chaser, and all of my chases have been in areas that are blue on this map, in the Pueblo, Albuquerque, Amarillo, and Lubbock CWAs. And as I said in my previous post, I would rate this season as slightly above average for me - not great, but apparently better than the experience of some others. Although one thing I would note about this map, as I understand it, is that in each CWA it is comparing this year to other years in the same CWA. So that does not mean in an absolute sense that these areas have been more active than others, just that they have been more active relative to past years in the same CWA. That said, there were a lot of marginal days that produced SOMEWHERE in May in each of these CWAs, though it was often far from obvious where they would produce on any given day. Still, if you chased quite a bit in these areas, there is a decent chance that you did OK. I suppose one other thing that helps is that I am retired and to some extent have the freedom to go when the setup looks good - although there were plenty of days when I did not or could not chase that produced pretty well somewhere.
On a slightly different note, but still relevant to this thread, I have now completed chase logs for all the days I have chased so far this year, all in May. You can access any or all of my logs for this season at www.johnefarley.com/svrwx2021.htm
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Good point about the context of the map @John Farley , i.e. that it represents only comparisons/trends within each individual CWA. Admittedly just anecdotal, but I can remember many consecutive years that I did NOT chase in southwest TX or in NM, so this year did indeed seem more active in those areas. As you said, this does not necessarily mean they were more active in absolute terms compared to other CWAs. I will also add another dimension to that - even within the blue CWAs the 2021 activity might not have been that great in absolute terms, but only represents an improvement relative to a pretty low baseline of activity in the previous years.
Shawn Schaefer
EF0
I had a great chase vacation personally. It could be that I was just overly positive based on not leaving Arizona at all for storms last year and a super dud of a monsoon season back at home. I was out for 2 weeks and only had 2 down days.
Because of last year I chased everything this year and had a lot of sleepless nights to position for the next day.
I did have some judgment errors and missed the storm of the day several times but I was just so happy to see thunderstorms, I never really felt my normal regret even when I put in a ton of miles and effort for a wimpy set up that barely produced hail.
The absolute highlight was my first day out. I left the Phoenix area around midnight and rushed to S/E Colorado for a marginal set up on May 2nd. I drove all night for a 2% hatch and arrived just as the storm went severe, it produced a tornado around Wiley that I was able to photo document and the set up was so bad, I only saw 1 other chaser the whole day!
I’ve only been at it on my own since 2015 but, this was my least stressful and most fun season to date.
Because of last year I chased everything this year and had a lot of sleepless nights to position for the next day.
I did have some judgment errors and missed the storm of the day several times but I was just so happy to see thunderstorms, I never really felt my normal regret even when I put in a ton of miles and effort for a wimpy set up that barely produced hail.
The absolute highlight was my first day out. I left the Phoenix area around midnight and rushed to S/E Colorado for a marginal set up on May 2nd. I drove all night for a 2% hatch and arrived just as the storm went severe, it produced a tornado around Wiley that I was able to photo document and the set up was so bad, I only saw 1 other chaser the whole day!
I’ve only been at it on my own since 2015 but, this was my least stressful and most fun season to date.
Yep, this is now me in every sense.
I have gone on three chases this year, and none of them produced much worth writing home about. Shit, on 5/26 I turned around after crossing into Kit Carson County on I-70 after seeing WoFS shit on the entirety of the W KS setup. Less than 30 minutes later the Brinkelman, NE storm had fired, but I was already 30 extra minutes out of position. I would have had to have driven excessively illegally to catch the end of that cycle of tornadoes.
And I'm sooooooooooo beyond sick of being in that position.
I have not had a clearly-tornado-seen chase since Memorial Day 2018, and I have chased fewer times since that day than any other period in my chasing career. I think since then I have 9 total chases, because, as Brett said, the models almost never depict a setup worth heading out for more than a day in advance, and the number of times CAMs have shit on previously-good-looking setups the day of is enough to make me want to quit.
And, in fact, that's mostly what I contemplate anymore. My life was different when I was still a student and lived in Iowa or Oklahoma; I was closer to the action, had fewer responsibilities, and more free time, and I hadn't seen as much. Today, I'm closer to 40 than 30, divorced, unable to land a long-term relationship (which has become a top-three focus of my life), and I have begun pivoting over to other hobbies that are far more reliable and have a similar level of reward and enjoyment. Those include hiking, cycling, exploring National Parks, reading, and music. The worst feeling I have anymore are those days where it's 4 PM and I already know I've busted, but am 200 miles away from home (and did not plan for, nor cannot, stop nearby and get a hotel for the day). It's such a demoralizing feeling to know you just wasted at least 6 hours of your time, including PTO, gas money, and whatever else you didn't get to do as a result of wasting your time driving.
Storm chasing has absolutely sucked shit on the Plains since 2018. Those of you who were not chasing before 2018 have no idea how crazy awesome setups used to be. You could wake up at 9 AM and make a dryline target 300 miles away without hardly missing anything. You could chase 3 separate tornado producing supercells on the same day in close proximity to each other. You could see nearly 10 legit tornadoes (not counting satellites and landspouts). Those days have all but disappeared during the classic spring Plains chase season. That shit has only happened in Minnesota or in February anymore.
If this is the new pattern for spring chasing, consider me no longer a storm chaser. I get that chasing was never easy (even in 2010-2013, it never was), but these last few years have been beyond ridiculous and not worth the effort I have put into it lately. Should the events of the 2000s and early 2010s and their associated synoptic patterns ever return, I'll come back out. But don't expect to see me out on the roads much until then.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Well in all fairness, post-2018 is only a three-year sample size, and 2019 had a pretty active stretch in May although it wasn't necessarily easy or quality chasing. I myself would include 2018 (and 2017) among those lean years, lacking any really synoptically predictable tornado events in the Plains (that didn't bust, like the May 2017 high risk) other than the Tescott day in 2018.
Warren Faidley
Supporter
It would be interesting to go back and evaluate long-range model accuracy for this odd season. Glancing through the posts in this thread, several of the long range predictions were in error. I'm still waiting for the "amazing" season Accu-wx predicted. Maybe they were talking about the monsoon? lol
Alex Elmore
EF2
I have a somewhat rosier look on this season than others, but my bar has always been pretty low. I started chasing in 2012, and with the exception of 2020, I've chased every year since. I don't believe I've ever been on the storm or tornado "of the year/season" due to not living in the Plains and being restricted by work or, for several years, school. Given how frustrating 2019 was and that 2020 was non-existent for me, my bar may have been set a little lower this year, but I feel that my view of this season comes from a more probabilistic mindset when it comes to forecasting and chasing. Additionally, I've gotten more into photography, so I'm happy just seeing a well-composed, beautiful scene and don't need the "THE MOST [ADJECTIVE] [ADJECTIVE] [ADJECTIVE] STORM/TORNADO EVER" to consider a chase a success. I saw a couple of tornadoes, a couple of good storms, new places, and in general experienced new things, so I'm content with my spring 2021.
Through my 11 day period (May 18 - May28) out in the Plains, it seems like the most of the storms of the day were low-probability, high-reward targets that even in hindsight, I'm not sure if I would have gone after. And I'd argue that the "high-reward" mostly comes from seeing something almost completely by yourself while nearly everyone else is on the main target a couple hundred miles away. I've chased plenty of setups like that before and ended up with a blue sky or complete crap of a storm while the main target verifies nicely. While I understand they're low-probability so they're not going to verify often, it's just not worth it to me to go after anymore.
I'm fairly happy with the targets I picked, with the exception being May 26. The environment was definitely conducive in SW/W Kansas where I sat most of the day, but from what I recall, the CAMs were more consistent with convection in the TX Panhandle and along the KS/NE border in the days leading up, and then central KS the morning of...all locations that experienced supercells and tornadoes that day. I was able to salvage the day by heading north and catching some structure as the sun set, but it was a frustrating day that I started dreading when I woke up. The bigger the hype, the harder the fall.
While not living in the Plains greatly limits chasing potential, and putting all your eggs in one basket by picking a week or two each year can be risky, I do like the idea of making the trip and basically being "forced" to chase. I'm not going to drive 12 hours from home to chase a marginal setup in CO, but if I'm already out in the Plains, then why not. I've gotten some great storms on marginal setups. With that logic and that this year was a bit of a redemption after the last couple crappy years, I'll give 2022 a spin.
Through my 11 day period (May 18 - May28) out in the Plains, it seems like the most of the storms of the day were low-probability, high-reward targets that even in hindsight, I'm not sure if I would have gone after. And I'd argue that the "high-reward" mostly comes from seeing something almost completely by yourself while nearly everyone else is on the main target a couple hundred miles away. I've chased plenty of setups like that before and ended up with a blue sky or complete crap of a storm while the main target verifies nicely. While I understand they're low-probability so they're not going to verify often, it's just not worth it to me to go after anymore.
I'm fairly happy with the targets I picked, with the exception being May 26. The environment was definitely conducive in SW/W Kansas where I sat most of the day, but from what I recall, the CAMs were more consistent with convection in the TX Panhandle and along the KS/NE border in the days leading up, and then central KS the morning of...all locations that experienced supercells and tornadoes that day. I was able to salvage the day by heading north and catching some structure as the sun set, but it was a frustrating day that I started dreading when I woke up. The bigger the hype, the harder the fall.
While not living in the Plains greatly limits chasing potential, and putting all your eggs in one basket by picking a week or two each year can be risky, I do like the idea of making the trip and basically being "forced" to chase. I'm not going to drive 12 hours from home to chase a marginal setup in CO, but if I'm already out in the Plains, then why not. I've gotten some great storms on marginal setups. With that logic and that this year was a bit of a redemption after the last couple crappy years, I'll give 2022 a spin.
Dean Baron
Supporter
This is the thing I end up focusing on the most when I know I've busted. The money and PTO suck but it's not the end of the world to me. The bigger issue is thinking about what I could have done with my time instead of driving many hours away just to essentially turn around and drive home. It wasn't as big of a deal when I was 19-21 and had extra time to burn but now that I have been working full time for almost a decade my spare time means much more to me. I've also been in an MBA program the last few years so my spare time has been extremely limited. To waste that time on a bust hurts way more than the financial or PTO cost does.
Here's an example:
I seem to recall 2005 was regarded as a pretty bad year for chasing, and yet this happened in June. In good years during that stretch, a day like this would be relegated to the "honorable mentions" section of someone's year-end highlight reel.
Had something like this happened in 2021 (May 26th was close, but not the same), you'd have people with this facial expression the entire time they were typing their REPORTS thread post:
I seem to recall 2005 was regarded as a pretty bad year for chasing, and yet this happened in June. In good years during that stretch, a day like this would be relegated to the "honorable mentions" section of someone's year-end highlight reel.
Had something like this happened in 2021 (May 26th was close, but not the same), you'd have people with this facial expression the entire time they were typing their REPORTS thread post:
Brett Roberts
EF5
Without looking at objective verification stats, I'd argue the worst subjective flaw in medium-to-S2S range modeling this year was the month-long stretch from early April to early May when there was always a classic Plains severe weather pattern in the offing at days 10-20. Of course, it never materialized in any form or fashion. (Yes, there was a stretch of chase opportunities from about May 15-25, but they came admist a pattern that was far from textbook and bore little resemblance to aggressive medium range predictions earlier in the season). Since the second week of May or so, NWP depictions of the big picture for the 1-2 week range have seemed to settle down and have performed reasonably well. In fact, nightly GEFS runs even nailed the nauseating, detestable June that's now all but locked in.
From my post 30 days ago:
Bear any resemblance to the 500 mb analysis the past week, or the 500 mb forecast for any snapshot from any ensemble run you can pick over the next two?
The fact that seasonal modeling from 6+ months out, along with the GEFS 4-5 weeks out, had such strong signals for this kind of outcome is something I can't get off my mind. With the usual disclaimer that I have no formal background in climate or even S2S modeling, it stands to reason there's something in the boundary conditions (meaning SSTs, land/soil state, polar sea ice, etc.) that made this predictable, even as certain teleconnections at times argued for classically active periods this spring. The burning question for all of us, of course, is how persistent the cause(s) may or may not be as we move years into the future.
Brett Roberts
EF5
I really do think the obvious lowering of standards, both for forecast events and post-events, is a good, holistic marker of how things have changed over the past 10-15 years. There are plenty of non-meteorological factors that may contribute, but still.
A few times over the past week, I've loaded the latest ensembles and quickly found myself an ill advised click away from a social media tirade that wouldn't be worth the blowback... so I've decided to redirect that saltiness toward pushing along some ERA5-based season scoring efforts I dabbled in last summer. Here's a tease illustrating just how far the month of June has fallen:
In short, this suggests that between 2012-2020, the entire month of June underperformed 1950-2020 climo as a whole by a large margin WRT coverage of reasonably favorable Plains environments. For early-mid June, 2012-2020 mean coverage is frequently under the 5th percentile for what you'd expect of random 10-year draws from the full 60-year distribution. Also plainly evident is the mid-late May spike in favorable environments, corresponding to what many of us have called the "compressed seasons" of recent years. Basically, it's been a good period to chasecation within the traditional May 15-30 window, but middling to awful outside of that. In fairness, early-mid April have also offered favorable environments significantly more often than the 60-year climo as a whole, although the absolute payoff to chasers so early in the year is fairly limited.
Now consider that when I'm able to add 2021 in a few weeks, the 10-year running coverage for June will very likely -- astoundingly -- fall even further. For all the talk of the sky falling and climate change wiping out all convection that can at times have an irrational, knee-jerk component, June is the segment of the core Plains season I'm really worried about going forward. This run the past 10 years is appalling from just about any perspective. When you combine the empirical data on environments over the past decade with fairly uncontroversial impacts from AGW, including warming Gulf SSTs (e.g., the NHC talking about moving the official start of Atlantic hurricane season to mid-May), there's a lot to unpack.
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I'm always out more or less the last 2 weeks of May. This year I had some success in eastern CO and also caught Selden. Of course, I made some mistakes. Leaving the storm near Kim in particular stings. But there is always more to learn.
It wasn't by best year, but it was so much better than 2017-2019, so I'll take it!
It wasn't by best year, but it was so much better than 2017-2019, so I'll take it!
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Nice, if depressing, work there @Brett Roberts . This suggests an objective decline in recent chase season quality, at least for June, independent of an individual chasers' luck/skill in timing their vacation/scoring on localized/"mesoscale accident" setups.
In 2015-16 I timed my vacation for the first week of June because it historically has been a good period for the C/N Plains and upper Midwest. Obviously this was not a good period of time to do that.
Your note about warming Gulf SSTs is interesting because I had hopes that would help ameliorate early season moisture issues. However it doesn't seem to be the case, or else other negative factors are overwhelming it, because we have seen three of the past four springs (2018, '20 and '21) plagued by moisture quality/depth issues even deep into May.
In 2015-16 I timed my vacation for the first week of June because it historically has been a good period for the C/N Plains and upper Midwest. Obviously this was not a good period of time to do that.
Your note about warming Gulf SSTs is interesting because I had hopes that would help ameliorate early season moisture issues. However it doesn't seem to be the case, or else other negative factors are overwhelming it, because we have seen three of the past four springs (2018, '20 and '21) plagued by moisture quality/depth issues even deep into May.
Shawn Schaefer
EF0
This is almost exactly where I am coming from. A bad day chasing is better than a good day working!
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