2012 Long Range Model Discusssion (> 7 Days Out)

[Andrew de la Garza]

Gotta love the wrong range GFS...

 

[Dan Robinson]

It's different when you live outside of the Plains and/or have to arrange days off at least a 6 days in advance. In that case, the wrangling with the long range progs is worth it when a run-to-run consistent pattern shows up at 7-10 days and maintains. Without agonizing over the Euro and GFS, I would have missed April 12-14 due to not giving enough notice to take my 2 days of vacation on days I had to arrange for replacement coverage at work. True, they do botch the majority of 5+ day patterns, but when they do come together in a big way (as they did for 4/12-4/15), the extra advance notice has been a season-saver for me several times, as it was this year. I owe my 10 tornadoes in 2012 partly to the GFS and Euro.

 

[ericjkelly]

Agree totally with Dan. Its hard for us Midwest people to jump with a day or two notice! I luckily have a very flexible job that allows me to take days off pretty easily but my chase buddy is the opposite. We have to plan our chase cation 3 months out to make sure the days are clear!

 

[Damen Winslow]

I'll be in KS from May 12th-19th for personal reasons and was hoping to sneak in a couple of chases. From what a lot of folks are saying it looks like I'll be disappointed Guess I'll leave my SLR behind since that's one less thing to carry around on the plane!

 

[ericjkelly]

My chase-cation is technically next week! Was planning on leaving Indiana and heading west this sunday night. Doesnt look like I will be heading anywhere!

 

[Andy Jackson]

There's got to be a vacation time that consistently pays off every year? Maybe not.

 

[joel ewing]

There's got to be a vacation time that consistently pays off every year? Maybe not.

Hi fellas! Andy, I'm in Arizona and fly back to my native Nebraska each spring / early summer for what usually ends up a 3-week chase-cation. I'm in business for myself, so I'm lucky in the sense that I don't have to commit too far in advance. Normally I'll play each pre-season blastoff by ear.. then fly into Omaha the last week of May or early June. Over each of the last several years, I've disgustedly muttered the phrase "May-Schmay"....because it seems that past Mays have been problematic. Successive cold fronts kept relentlessly scouring the alley's moisture out of play, and I'm beginning to get a strong feeling that it'll be an early June blastoff for me once again. This actually suits me just fine, because it gives me the chance to chase the Northern Plains...which I much prefer compared to the southern plains. June has a lot of plusses, one of them being that the alley is usually more beautifully green than in May. A huge upside is that there are a lot less pesky storm-t.v.-show-newbie chasers out, and a lot of veteran chasers have already spent their vacations by then. For sure, May can be more dynamic than June, but by June, the northern alley is usually juiced up and you can have some fantastic chasing. And don't forget that daylight is maximized. In mid-June a person can see right up to 10pm central time... you sure can't do that right now. If you make a tactical mistake, you'll have an extra hour or more to make up for it. So...we all wait, and cuss and spit and moan, etc. etc. Thank God we've all got StormTrack, where a bunch of whiners like me can share our annual pre-chase angst and trepidations. Hey...I missed out on April 14th...how do you think I feel? You lucky pups who bagged that afternoon are surely more relaxed than the rest of us who are a bit nervous right now, aren't 'ya?

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Living in Kansas is wonderful because I can make 1 day decisions and get to my target. I feel bad for those nitwits that actually pay to be on a tour only to look at clear skies and Plains Americana. Sucks for them.

 

[Mark Blue]

I absolutely understand what you are saying Joel and to boot you have to coordinate with your chase partner Doren B. right? I actually have come to enjoy chasing in June a little more than in May myself. Heck, even in July or August (Aug not as active) along the front range of Colorado.

This is the first year in 5 that my wife and I don't have any chasecations planned, so our chasing might be confined to eastern CO, southeast WY, southwest NE, or northwest KS. The kind of chases where it's all in one day and home at night. We have to plan our time off well in advance, so we do not have the flexibility to take off on a moments notice, which sounds a lot like what Dan R stated in his post above. It's especially true if you have your days off locked in and you see a death ridge coming (God forbid!). I haven't looked at today's model data yet, but will take a peek later and remain positive as this season unfolds.

 

[Clarence Bennett]

It's different when you live outside of the Plains and/or have to arrange days off at least a 6 days in advance. In that case, the wrangling with the long range progs is worth it when a run-to-run consistent pattern shows up at 7-10 days and maintains. Without agonizing over the Euro and GFS, I would have missed April 12-14 due to not giving enough notice to take my 2 days of vacation on days I had to arrange for replacement coverage at work. True, they do botch the majority of 5+ day patterns, but when they do come together in a big way (as they did for 4/12-4/15), the extra advance notice has been a season-saver for me several times, as it was this year. I owe my 10 tornadoes in 2012 partly to the GFS and Euro.

I am scheduled to be off work the 21st - 25th and will be heading out for a May 19 - 28 trip...I have been agonizing for the last three days at the pattern that has appeared to be shaping up. Thankfully is it going to be late May and it doesn't take much. I fear I won't even get to see towering CU though...

 

[CS85]

We too have our chasecation planned from May 19-26. Coming from Manitoba, we had to plan this way back in October to ensure that all of us could book time off. Hopefully it turns out ok and we have something to chase!

 

[TrumanBoyer]

June Storms are typically slower-moving as well.

I remember one of the most frustrating seasons I ever had --
after 3 weeks of living on shoestring budget --
spent the first 10 daylight hours of a High-Risk Day--
fixing a busted fuel pump --
in a stinking hot parking lot bent over a fender--
getting sunburned where the sun never shines.

I spent the last 90 minutes of that June day, just lying on
the windshield and hood of that Chevy
and watched a slow-moving LP produce one tornado after another,
moving almost straight toward me and slightly to the north.

7 tornadoes in all -- a personal best. Might've been 8 but it was almost 10 o'clock
by the time I saw the last funnel, never sure if it touched down or not.

I worked like hell to get out in early May this year.

Now I am sitting in Moore, OK trying to make sure I have enough cash to last
thru this Halcyon period, so I don't have to walk home to Maryland. lol.

I have seen "The Avengers" 5 times now. Twice in IMAX 3D.

My point is "HANG IN THERE"
the weather will get really bad in the next week or two.

Unless anybody wants to drive to Corpus Christi today....
Hurry up! we better get moving....

-Truman

 

[Cstok]

I too am a long range junkie, yes also becuase my chasecation has to be planned somewhat in advance since I live here in S. Cal. I also know that many chuckle when they see us long range junkies get freaked out when we see a death ridge 10 days out... yes it is wishcasting but it still is fun. Besides the planning part of it, I actually do get a bit of a rush each time I know that a new run (GFS / ECMWF) comes out... kinda like opening a present.... not sure what you are going to get, but it is fun just opening it up!

Anyway back to the topic at hand... the GFS and ECMWF are begining to hint at some sort of engergy digging in at about 9 - 10 days out:

 

[Jeff Duda]

Each time I look at a new run of the GFS, FIM, and ECMWF, I begin to think more and more that most of May will end up being pretty quiet. Only the ECMWF is showing any consistent sign of any western US troughiness through the next 10 days. However, the control run of the ECMWF likes to keep splitting the trough in the western US towards days 8-10 so that most of the energy is concentrated in a small vort max at the southern tip of the axis. The GFS has shown this in the past, but either lifts the trough out to the point where it only glances the central/southern plains or cuts it off and leaves it hanging out over the far SW US for an indefinite period. Thus I'm tempted to think the ECMWF will do something similar with it. The GFS and FIM continue to show a very July-August like pattern with all of the concentrated flow well up to the north by the Canadian border with a few shortwaves rolling through every few days and with very weak flow generally south of the I-90 to I-80 corridor.

 

[Steve Smithson]

Living in Kansas is wonderful because I can make 1 day decisions and get to my target. I feel bad for those nitwits that actually pay to be on a tour only to look at clear skies and Plains Americana. Sucks for them.

That's why as from next year I'm chasing on a favourable pattern, I guess flights from the UK during March - May will be relatively cheap and will be on a week long chase so won't be as expensive as a tour, shame though tours when the plains are active are so much fun!!

Steve S.