Bob Schafer
EF5
My family moved from Minneapolis to Cleveland around the first week of 1968. My dad likes to tell the story that for a whole week just before we moved the temperature had never "warmed" to 0.
You Know It's Going to be a Bad Year When...(a thread for lamenting the long-term downturn in chase season quality)
- Thread starter Jeff Duda
- Start date
My family moved from Minneapolis to Cleveland around the first week of 1968. My dad likes to tell the story that for a whole week just before we moved the temperature had never "warmed" to 0.
Jeff House
Supporter
You might know it's going to be a bad year when.. 1. Pandemic is declared before Season. 2. Overnight EF-3 passes within 2 miles of my home (Easter) so I guess that was my season. 3. Cutoff low hell breaks out. 4. Murder hornets in the Pac NW screw up troughs - just kidding!
Used to be one could fly to ICT OKC or wherever noted above, and base from there near peak local climo. Now it's driving all over between Billings, MT and Charleston, SC hoping for something visible, during the daytime, and not surrounded by other cells.
So far I've not attempted a Plains trip in 2020. In 2018 we made no serious Plains effort. In 2017 we made no Plains trip at all. 2020 could end up like 2017, no trip at all. From 2007-2016 we went every year (except birth of kid). Before then I lived in Wichita.
For my first 10 years outside the Plains I actually enjoyed travel chases more than when I lived there. It's like gambling. Why do we do better in Vegas than at local casinos? Our theory is that on true vacation you can relax - and do it right. Gambling or forecasting.
Now reality is in! I can't chase April in the Plains. I'm not going out for 1-2 days. I wait for the May trough. Um, well, that has not really happened well since 2016. We got tornadoes in 2019 but they ain't no DDC or Rozel or 2008 multi-cycle show.
Time to re-evaluate the hobby? Choice A is to learn to chase Dixie since I'm right here. F*** that's a bitter pill! We make fun of Dixie tongue and cheek, but it really is that bad. Except for 4/27/11 Dixie is un-chasable slop; and, that day is too tragic.
Choice B is remain a Plains snob, knowing the chase trip is not annual. Chase trip happens when it can, every 2-3 years when a quality May trough sets up. If the Alley really is shifting with climate or some other cycle, A&B are both under consideration.
Choice C is just hope the Plains debacle rights itself. Can we get a true multi-year -PDO or has climate change nixed that?
Choice D is a new hobby. If I'm still addicted to total solar eclipses after April 2024, there's a few in sunny Australia the following years. Save up by skipping Plains storm chasing.
I try to remember Dan Robinson threads about appreciate what we have. I got the following four-cycle shows: Harper-Attica 2004, Hennessy OK 2008, Rozel (only two cycles but so gorgeous) and Dodge City 2016. Arguably I've had a quality career and can quit.
On the other hand if they happen every 4-5 years maybe I'm due. Leaning Plan B attm. Oh and Plan D too.
Used to be one could fly to ICT OKC or wherever noted above, and base from there near peak local climo. Now it's driving all over between Billings, MT and Charleston, SC hoping for something visible, during the daytime, and not surrounded by other cells.
So far I've not attempted a Plains trip in 2020. In 2018 we made no serious Plains effort. In 2017 we made no Plains trip at all. 2020 could end up like 2017, no trip at all. From 2007-2016 we went every year (except birth of kid). Before then I lived in Wichita.
For my first 10 years outside the Plains I actually enjoyed travel chases more than when I lived there. It's like gambling. Why do we do better in Vegas than at local casinos? Our theory is that on true vacation you can relax - and do it right. Gambling or forecasting.
Now reality is in! I can't chase April in the Plains. I'm not going out for 1-2 days. I wait for the May trough. Um, well, that has not really happened well since 2016. We got tornadoes in 2019 but they ain't no DDC or Rozel or 2008 multi-cycle show.
Time to re-evaluate the hobby? Choice A is to learn to chase Dixie since I'm right here. F*** that's a bitter pill! We make fun of Dixie tongue and cheek, but it really is that bad. Except for 4/27/11 Dixie is un-chasable slop; and, that day is too tragic.
Choice B is remain a Plains snob, knowing the chase trip is not annual. Chase trip happens when it can, every 2-3 years when a quality May trough sets up. If the Alley really is shifting with climate or some other cycle, A&B are both under consideration.
Choice C is just hope the Plains debacle rights itself. Can we get a true multi-year -PDO or has climate change nixed that?
Choice D is a new hobby. If I'm still addicted to total solar eclipses after April 2024, there's a few in sunny Australia the following years. Save up by skipping Plains storm chasing.
I try to remember Dan Robinson threads about appreciate what we have. I got the following four-cycle shows: Harper-Attica 2004, Hennessy OK 2008, Rozel (only two cycles but so gorgeous) and Dodge City 2016. Arguably I've had a quality career and can quit.
On the other hand if they happen every 4-5 years maybe I'm due. Leaning Plan B attm. Oh and Plan D too.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
I think I’ll go with Choice C Jeff! Choice B would be really tough. It’s agonizing enough figuring out which week(s) to go in a given year; deciding whether to go *at all* would be brutal. Also, making the dates flexible gives me enough trouble trying to manage expectations/schedules at work and home, and that’s when I say I’ll be gone two weeks out of these three or four calendar weeks; imagine saying I may or may not be going at all! If I treat it as optional, and don’t keep it firmly on the calendar as a priority, someone will prioritize something else for me!
Choice D is a good option regardless - just to have something the whole year and to stop investing so much emotionally in something that often disappoints and even at its best can only be enjoyed for a handful of days each year (and that’s even if you do live in the Plains). That’s a subject for another thread: to really analyze the underlying reasons storm chasing is so enjoyable, and figure out what other hobbies can scratch the same itch. (My other main hobby is Brazilian jiu jitsu, which, grappling being the antithesis of social distancing, is off the table right now...)
I think Choice C with an attitude adjustment - i.e., more realistic expectations - is the answer. Know that it’s like baseball, if you can hit 300 you’re doing great and that’s about the best you can hope for. You may only hit 225 or 250 as a long term average. The misses have to be worth it to you, for that one great day that used to make a year - and now may have to make a decade.
BTW - I agree chase trips, and that rhythm of being immersed in nothing but chasing for two straight weeks, seems more enjoyable than living on the Plains and doing one-offs. I’m not a gambler, but I like the gambling locally vs Vegas analogy. Come to think of it, storm chasing and gambling have a lot in common, maybe gambling should be my new hobby...
Choice D is a good option regardless - just to have something the whole year and to stop investing so much emotionally in something that often disappoints and even at its best can only be enjoyed for a handful of days each year (and that’s even if you do live in the Plains). That’s a subject for another thread: to really analyze the underlying reasons storm chasing is so enjoyable, and figure out what other hobbies can scratch the same itch. (My other main hobby is Brazilian jiu jitsu, which, grappling being the antithesis of social distancing, is off the table right now...)
I think Choice C with an attitude adjustment - i.e., more realistic expectations - is the answer. Know that it’s like baseball, if you can hit 300 you’re doing great and that’s about the best you can hope for. You may only hit 225 or 250 as a long term average. The misses have to be worth it to you, for that one great day that used to make a year - and now may have to make a decade.
BTW - I agree chase trips, and that rhythm of being immersed in nothing but chasing for two straight weeks, seems more enjoyable than living on the Plains and doing one-offs. I’m not a gambler, but I like the gambling locally vs Vegas analogy. Come to think of it, storm chasing and gambling have a lot in common, maybe gambling should be my new hobby...
Noah Anderson
EF0
As someone who started chasing in 2018, this is the attitude that I have had to live by. A combination of inexperience and general lack of quality chasing opportunities (skipping some more major events east of the Mississippi due to concerns about terrain and storm-motion) has meant that I have been on a three year tornado drought, (technically 20 years, if you include the years of not being a storm chaser). Preoccupation with college last year meant that the ~10-day May sequence of 'decent' chasing was inaccessible, and after being sent home to Minnesota this March due to COVID to finish my semester online, I was SO excited to finally have the flexibility to really chase during the "great" month of May. Yeah, about that. The best way I can describe the past three years as far as chasing goes is that is has been a big bummer.
And yet, it has all been worth it. Going through such a drought (recently broken this Saturday in Northern Illinois) has pretty much forced me to appreciate every other part of storm chasing besides the tornadoes. The innumerable hours on the open road, while sometimes grueling, have made me appreciate how lucky I am to have the freedom to do what I do. The hundreds of small towns that I've passed through all have their own distinct charm (or lackthereof) that make them unique and memorable. And, as I mentioned above, finally seeing a tornado for the first time was made just that much more incredible and special given how hard I've worked for it.
That being said, this year and the past three have sucked hard, and I'm mad at the world for serving me such a shit platter. Here's to an anomalously great June!
Warren Faidley
Supporter
It's good to see the newer chasers who are hanging in there for the long haul (Noah). My wife and I had a lot of fun chasing the northern plains, especially MN in 2010 where you're from. It seemed like every other country mile was paved so for chasing it was nice. I haven't seen that anywhere else that we've chased and we've been everywhere in tornado alley. Maybe June will turn out okay this year but who knows for sure. It seems like we're a month behind the seasons here in CO, so I'm hoping for June and July to offer up some action. Keep learning and chasing and it'll eventually pay dividends.
Joerg Kudella
EF1
As an overseas chaser, I actually appreciate how May turned out to be a dud. Now I can say: "Lucky us, look at that ugly pattern. We would have been so pissed!" I know that doesn´t help you guys at all but that´s me trying to see the upside of this whole messed-up situation.
However, I put so much hope into 2020 after 2017-2019 being mediocre seasons at best for us that it still pains me to not be able to go. June can still turn things around for you guys but not for us obviously.
I like Warren´s countdown but it shows the brutal truth: one entire year of waiting and who knows how things evolve with Covid, I hope we can travel normally in 2021 again.
However, I put so much hope into 2020 after 2017-2019 being mediocre seasons at best for us that it still pains me to not be able to go. June can still turn things around for you guys but not for us obviously.
I like Warren´s countdown but it shows the brutal truth: one entire year of waiting and who knows how things evolve with Covid, I hope we can travel normally in 2021 again.
Jeff House
Supporter
Countdown reminds me of kids waiting for Christmas. Poor troughs and covid feels like canceling Christmas for adult chasers.
Forgot to mention in 2017 we had the total solar eclipse, though it's implied by the new hobby Plan D. Eclipse is one reason we made no Plains trip in 2017. Just in case it'd be necessary for the eclipse. In 2020 we don't have such a great make-up event. Oddly, here in the worst climo of the 2017 eclipse path, we had the best weather. In a weather related hobby, we count our blessings.
Eclipses do offer much of the same forecasting anticipation. I mean we know it'll happen, but sky condition is the question. One needs about 3 motels booked ahead of time. Cancel the unused ones and go to the best forecast. All that requires getting neurotic watching ensembles two weeks out and deterministic in the lead-up days - just like storm chasing. Woo-hoo!
Alas this is the weather lamentations thread. Next trough looks far north. Probably Canada, lol.
Back to the climate change issues. Will we ever get a -PDO? Maybe the ocean cannot sink anymore heat. Continue AN SSTs forever. Cancel all future Plains seasons. Continue overnight tragedy in Dixie. Time to install a safe room here!
Forgot to mention in 2017 we had the total solar eclipse, though it's implied by the new hobby Plan D. Eclipse is one reason we made no Plains trip in 2017. Just in case it'd be necessary for the eclipse. In 2020 we don't have such a great make-up event. Oddly, here in the worst climo of the 2017 eclipse path, we had the best weather. In a weather related hobby, we count our blessings.
Eclipses do offer much of the same forecasting anticipation. I mean we know it'll happen, but sky condition is the question. One needs about 3 motels booked ahead of time. Cancel the unused ones and go to the best forecast. All that requires getting neurotic watching ensembles two weeks out and deterministic in the lead-up days - just like storm chasing. Woo-hoo!
Alas this is the weather lamentations thread. Next trough looks far north. Probably Canada, lol.
Back to the climate change issues. Will we ever get a -PDO? Maybe the ocean cannot sink anymore heat. Continue AN SSTs forever. Cancel all future Plains seasons. Continue overnight tragedy in Dixie. Time to install a safe room here!
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Joerg, I think all of us chase vacationers - including those of us that live in the US, but not on the Plains - feel the same way. Definitely a relief to not have missed anything, it helps to make peace with the decision not to take a chase vacation or to not be able to take one. If I was out there from May 13 (I think that was a good day IIRC) through this past weekend, there would have been a few chase days, nothing great but it would have been better than nothing considering it’s a year between trips. Although there was also a whole week of mostly downtime in that stretch. A trip just for this past stretch starting Thursday May 21 would have hardly been worth it, knowing that nothing lies beyond it. Some years I would have gone anyway, just based on that initial stretch (3-5 day forecast) and deliberately avoid looking at the long range, being willing just to take my chances, go for the vacation time and hope for the best. That would have worked out terribly this year, I would already have cut it short and would be home by now.
JamesCaruso
Staff member
Appreciating everything outside of tornados, and just having a love/fascination for the weather and the non-weather aspects of storm chasing, are definitely part of it. Some chasers are better at living those words than others, but regardless even the Zen-master chasers among us I think all have a pretty similar idea of what the ultimate chasing treasure is. So it becomes how much time, money, effort, frustration and disappointment you are willing to endure to find that treasure. I remember hearing a podcast where someone described how achieving any goal requires enduring pain along the way, but every individual has pain he is willing to endure and other pain he is not willing to endure. As the ratio of “pain to pleasure” in chasing may be shifting in an unfavorable direction, we have to decide if we are still willing to endure it. In some ways it should make the pleasure greater - the spectacular days are spectacular precisely because they are so rare. The challenge is the appeal. Also, being able to appreciate everything about chasing besides tornados does a lot to make the “pain” less painful.
Paul Sherman
EF2
I think the last 12 Years has helped if you run tours and chase absolutely everything thereby hitting the Mesoscale Accidents of which there were numerous in the 2010-2019 timescale. I started in 2005 and 2006 learning this hobby with a Vet US Chaser and was pretty underwhelmed obviously with how those May's played out. 2005 had some nice days with the Stretch from May 10th to May 13th and some Solid Tornado Days which I missed all of them (Rookie at the time) but then 2007 and 2008 happened with some amazing Kansas Chase Days and back to back High Risk days with 3 in a little over a week. 2009 was a forgetable year but taking out 2011 the rest have been pretty decent, We do tend to accumulate around 30,000 miles in our 10 weeks out so probably have an unfair advantage when a 2% freak accident happens. Some years I have found to be too hot temperature wise and low quality moisture with a lot more Hail and Structure and other years things just click like 2010, 2013 and 2016 for Tornadoes. I will always favour the High Plains over traditional Tornado Alley though and almost said I would never chase anything over a Moderate in May again in Oklahoma after Mangum last year. I guess I have been one of the lucky few in the last 10 years but also have become a snob when it comes to anywhere east of I-35 maybe I need to change that with how climatology is going when we are allowed back.
I can't understand why 2011 is taking such a beating. The Tuscsloosa to Birmingham tornado on 4/27 was an EF4. The Joplin tornado on 5/22 was an EF5 and the El Reno tornado on 5/24 was also an EF5. There's even a Wikipedia article online for the time period 5/21-26. My memory recalls that year being one of the best during the decade, but each person's mileage could certainly vary.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
I think the pandemic made a no-go decision a lot easier for a lot of chasers this year. Not just the risk involved, but the (lack of) enjoyment factor in roaming the plains, exploring towns, trying restaurants, etc during the plentiful down time.
Andy Wehrle
EF5
Despite the impressive nature and (unusually for the region) spectacular visibility of the 4/27 tornadoes, racing these monsters when they move 60-70 MPH through the hills and trees of Dixie isn't most chaser's idea of a good time.
May was mostly a dud outside of that 5-day stretch (rather like 2013 and 2019) and so was June apart from 1 or 2 days. Joplin was too wrapped and too catastrophic for an enjoyable chase.
May 2011 was pretty quiet up until the 21st, when E KS and C OK unexpectedly lit up, and then suddenly things went nuts for about 5 days. But even after that it got pretty quiet again up until mid-June, when the 18th-20th stretch happened and kind of saved the remainder of the season.
2011 was almost all April, and in less-chaseable areas (E OK, Dixie, the Carolinas). Check out the SPC event archive on this period.
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