2012 Long Range Model Discusssion (> 7 Days Out)

[Clarence Bennett]

Guys, if things come anywhere near close to the picture the 00z GFS just painted, we are in for a rough 4 or 5 days...It is still a ways out, but my God, if this happened...H25 just sits there pumping off the pacific for days and this trough does not move...unreal...speechless...epic.

 

[Michael Snyder]

The 00z GFS still ejects energy out into the plains for the 23rd and 24th.
I keep waiting for the GFS to become more zonal, and move towards the more believable EMCWF, but it sure is being stubborn.

Cant wait till the NAM comes into play...

 

[Eddie Natenberg]

I stand corrected, it does look like there is temporary amplification of a western trough in the latest runs, lets see if the gfs holds and the atm verifies Also ensemble shows an indication of a ring of fire transition by the first week of June. Very exciting! Lots of dynamic processes to watch in the latest runs (00-06z). Maybe I should save the forecast images later for SDS season.

 

[Dan Robinson]

The Euro hasn't been 100% on board with the favorable placement of the trough shown by the GFS and its ensembles, keeping the core of the jet far north and west. I'm waiting for one to concede to the other before getting too excited (or not). Either way, there should be some degree of SW flow over the Plains, with southerly low level flow at least improving the moisture situation.

 

[Jeff Duda]

The 00z GFS still ejects energy out into the plains for the 23rd and 24th.
I keep waiting for the GFS to become more zonal, and move towards the more believable EMCWF, but it sure is being stubborn.

Cant wait till the NAM comes into play...

And what a difference 12 hours makes to a control run.

 

[Michael Snyder]

And what a difference 12 hours makes to a control run.

Indeed, the gfs is coming back towards the euro, color me surprised.

 

[Bob Hartig]

Yeah, the 12z GFS is worse than a politician's promise. Now let's see what the 00z says. My guess is, it'll remain flatter and draw in sync with the Euro. I hope I'm wrong--I'd love to dust off my gear.

 

[Derek Weston]

So the GFS has been tossing out some good stuff later in the week the last 3 runs at least.

But ECMWF wants to keep things further north still. Anybody ever see the GFS win out? (believes in GFS....believes in GFS)

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/ecmwf.html

 

[Michael Snyder]

So the GFS has been tossing out some good stuff later in the week the last 3 runs at least.

But ECMWF wants to keep things further north still. Anybody ever see the GFS win out? (believes in GFS....believes in GFS)

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/ecmwf.html

Well if you can imagine it, the 00Z Euro has a stronger low moving over north dakota and stronger/quicker trailing cold front than the 06z GFS (For the ejecting low tihs weekend that is)

 

[beaudodson]

We are in the middle of an amazing drought in the KPAH region - lot of heat and extremely dry. We would pay money for rain and storms. The high temperature today reached 108 at the NWS Office in Paducah. This tied the all time record high - for any month. Will be curious to see how this drought ends.

 

[Mark Blue]

I believe the time has come to unstick this thread, since it seems to have run its course for 2012. If anyone is against the idea speak up now or forever hold your peace!!

 

[Jon Strebler]

Anyone looking at the potential for some sort of severe threat this weekend in the Upper Mississippi/Great Lakes region? Hard to get very excited over it, but there is some tornado potential.