2012 Long Range Model Discusssion (> 7 Days Out)

[Willoughby Owen]

There's a lot better hope on the extended outlook on the latest 12Z EC with a new shortwave forecast over the SRN plains. Yes, models in May do tend to flip flop!

 

[cdcollura]

Good day all,

Im not liking the east coast trough nor the Baja (Rex block) low through May 10 either.

Hopefully this will pass by mid to late may... It's happened before (including 2008 and 2010 which had slow early / mid mays and active late mays)!

 

[Steve Smithson]

I remember having the grim outlook discussion before I flew out for the last 2 weeks of May last year and I had the most active two weeks of chasing I've ever had, so don't give up on May just yet, you just never know!

Steve S.

 

[Warren Faidley]

Looks like things will start to recover by the 18th.

W.

 

[Laura Duchesne]

Apparently La Nina just ended and we are now in neutral, maybe going in with a mild El Nino towards June. The models do seem to be flipping around a lot, but after looking at several runs throughout the last week or so, moisture may start to recover around the 19th. I am hoping I timed my chasecation perfectly. Last year around this time, May looked to be ridged out, but the block ended up moving out and in middle of May things cranked up again.

 

[Stan Rose]

I once saw a gorgeous LP with golf ball hail and funnels with 500 mb winds of 15 knots. Just took a nice boundary--and you aint gonna see that in 300 hour progs. The next week looks pretty lame, but I see plenty of potential beyond that. If I have to go to Montana or S Texas, that's perfectly fine with me--it's called 'chasing' after all.

 

[Mark Blue]

If I have to go to Montana or S Texas, that's perfectly fine with me--it's called 'chasing' after all.

Speaking of long distances, my wife and I drove from Wichita Falls, TX to Miles City, MT from one chase to the next in 2010. That was a bit much for me, but if you're out chasing you may as well. I believe the cut off low meandering around Mexico and the desert SW may offer a couple of opportunities in the next few days, but the sooner it moves out the better. Deep moisture return is what we'll need once we get past the near term, then a monstrous negative tilted trough wouldn't hurt either. We can all dream can't we?

 

[Marcus Diaz]

Been talking with some of the local vets that have been in the game for a while. This mega-soaker down in SW TX/N Old MX is going to be very beneficial for setups in late May. This moisture should help pull the dryline west further. All that we need is some west coast troughing, and east coast ridging, and we should be back in business. Like many have said, I'm thinking mid May - mid June might be pretty busy. Although, the past few years I've been in the game, it always seems that early May is relatively quiet. We usually get a death ridge or one of these strong cold fronts come through. Give the atmosphere a couple weeks to chuck out the crud, and we're usually in for some multi-day outbreaks.

 

[Matthew Crowther]

Usually really bad periods do not last longer than 2 weeks. There are some signs in the ensembles that the shift back to a more favorable pattern could begin about May 18th give or take. My annual vacation does not begin until June, looks like that may have been a good decision. I do feel sorry for those locked into the next two weeks, and also the chase tour customers who just began their tour....ouch.

 

[Laura Duchesne]

One goid thing is at least this is not the infamous Hudson Bay vortex block.. those can last a month! Funny thing is I *did* have this week planned for chasing with another friend back in March, but somehow fate came along and those plans did not work out.. thank goodness too.

 

[Bob Hartig]

I have a thing about May 22. That date has produced for me in 2007, 2008, and 2010; and while I had to sit out last year, we all know what happened in Joplin on that date. This year, the long-range hints that jet energy and instability may finally close the gap around that time. It's got to happen at some point, and it might as well be then. Call me superstitious, but I'm not booking any gigs around that date on into June.

 

[Mark Blue]

I hear you about May 22nd Bob! There is something about that date I cannot explain. In terms of pattern changes I like what the ECMWF is showing for the May 16th and 17th time frame. We can preserve these here and if anyone wants to paste the 0Z runs for those days or even further out then we'll see if they verify in 10-12 days from now. Here are two screen shots that are making me hopeful for a positive pattern change. GFS screen shots are also welcome IMO.

 

[Kelly Sugden]

Don't really like the EC 500 hPa pattern. With that solution there should be a weak front located somewhere across the northern Gulf blocking juicy (i.e. 68-73 deg f) dewpoints from returning to the central plains. Color me unimpressed for severe potential across my neck of the woods through mid May. Models do change and moisture is underforecast (and over ) so not throwing in the towel but don't see any huge outbreaks within the current temporal model domain.

 

[Chip Redmond]

That is the point I was also going to make as well Kelly. However, temperatures would also be held at bay with a cold air intrusion that would allow for smaller T/Td spreads. The ECMWF and GFS do agree however! Here is the GFS for that first timeframe:

Chip

 

[Tom Dulong]

Usually really bad periods do not last longer than 2 weeks.

I have been chasing off and on since the 1980s and have observed the same thing many times. There was about a two week stretch in early-mid May, 2008 when the traditional tornado alley (e.g., plains west of I-35) was rather quiet. Then, we saw four consecutive days of multiple tornadoes (22nd-25th) as a ridge weakened to allow a trough to move in from the Pacific NW and form a cutoff low over the Central Rockies.