2005 Storm Chasing Prediction Thread...

[Dan Cook]

*adds Fabian to the traitor list*

 

[chad lawson]

with as many people chasing now of days i would love not to see anyone else. makes you feel like its just you and the storm.i am not saying other chasers being out there to is bad but it can be hetic watching the road,storm,and other people. so enjoy what you have.just my 0.02

 

[Shane Adams]

I agree with Chad.

As far as the Illini folks continuing their constant, Mac Brown-like campaign for their state's chaseability/tornadoes, I think it's more important to look at chaseable events, instead of the overall number of events. As far as chaseability, a bad year in the S Plains is usually better than a great year up north. How many of you Illinois guys saw double digit tornadoes in ILL in that year (2003?) you keep bragging about where ILL had over 100 tornadoes? My guess is a single digit number - 0 :lol:

If you're going to look at a five-year average/climatological map to judge where the best spot for tornadoes is, it'll be different every year. You have to look at decades-long averages to find the true areas of highest tornadic potential, because the averages are built from the fluctuations that tend to cycle out every 5-10 years (after all, if you don't have differing stats you can't really have an "average").

Nick, you can have Michigan all to yourself, and I hope you see 30 wedges this year. Me, I'll take my chances in the Plains, where we might have fewer tornadoes some years than other places, but at least when we do, you can see them.

 

[Tim Vasquez]

I chased eastern Illinois a few times in 1992, and I had problems with haze each time. Many of the storms were linear and it made it difficult to pick out the tail end or find a good gap.

Tim

 

[Glen Romine]

He He.... an argument about chasing in IL. I've been living in central IL for a few years now attending graduate school.... and was in Norman prior and grew up in the Tulsa area - so I'm pretty familiar with chasing both places. I rarely ever chase here in IL - often for the reason that Tim mentioned - frequent problems with poor visibility and rarely do you get good events with reasonable storm motions for chasing. The flat countryside and road network are fine - and there have been a few occasions when conditions were actually quite good - but those events I could probably count on two hands over five years. More often I travel to IA and NE to chase (MO is horrible), with the occasional trip to KS and OK. Sure, the tornado statistics for IL look pretty reasonable - but many events are after dark, embedded in linear structures, screaming at > 40 mph, or in thick soup haze that makes even finding storms difficult. Sure, there are times in the plains when conditions are similar - but classic, chaseable, discrete cells are much more common in the central plains in my experience.

Glen

 

[Amos Magliocco]

I stopped trying to chase up here last year. I admit that I'm no good at forecasting tornadoes here, and have had no luck.

It seems that the best events, or at least the ones people were willing to forecast in advance, happen during spring when I'm already on the plains. People say plains chasers 'ignore' Illinois, but the truth is that it's a long way away if you've just chased western Kansas, and if the models show another round of storms in a day or two, it doesn't make sense to huff it all the way up here then turn around and hurry back into the plains.

Then there are the majority of tornado events, which look to me, on paper, like perfect setups for squall lines or segments with embedded supercells. I hate that kind of crap, and I don't know how to discriminate between that mode (which is the most common) and those occasions when individual cells develop and produce tornadoes. The 0-3k SRH always looks terrible to me. Surface winds are often veered. Systems are ejecting rapidly from the plains and shearing out, with wild amounts of forcing and a monster cold front threatening to undercut anything not bolted to the floor. There isn't a subtle lifting mechanism in sight, except for maybe a surface trough with just enough convergence to lure you into a bust.

Jon Davies taught us about low-topped supercells ten years ago but 4-20 caught everybody by surprise. So far, I'm not aware of other chasers who have really specialized in forecasting tornadoes in this area (Illinios, Indiana, Michigan, whatever) with long-term success. At least they haven't made it public.

I'm not blaming the geography or the atmosphere. I admit that I just don't have the skill to make chasing here worth my gas money. So....I'll head for the Alley where I know the burritos have been under the lamp all morning.

 

[Glen Romine]

Good point Amos - there are different 'rules' for synoptic setups for different parts of the country. I actually had found a rather interesting article online one day that I found rather informative, perhaps others who have not seen it before will enjoy it also:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/Research/Viole..._Mesoscale.html

Glen

 

[Robert Dewey]

Good point Amos - there are different 'rules' for synoptic setups for different parts of the country. I actually had found a rather interesting article online one day that I found rather informative, perhaps others who have not seen it before will enjoy it also:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ama/Research/Viole..._Mesoscale.html

Glen

Excellent information, Glen. I pretty much agree with what everyone has said about chasing east of the MS, and I too probably wouldn't stray as far as IL for a squall line. However, I probably would still drive a good 100 miles to witness an awesome bow echo or catch part of a derecho, I love storms, and have no discrimination. But like Amos said, it's not worth driving a significant amount to witness that, when in a couple days you could be looking at a tornado. As for most tornadoes in MI, it's generally agreed that they are hard to find, and when you do, you get a 1-2 minute show of something you THINK is a tornado, and that's only if you can see it between the trees (at least here in MI) and have a telescope. If the setup looked perfect for tornadoes in IL, chances are good that I would head out (MI/IN are a given, I'm out for pulse storms, LOL), but again, even with the Roanoke storm, things are pretty much a "caught you off guard" situation...

 

[Shane Adams]

That link is fantastic, and I only skimmed the first half. I have definitely saved this into my weather/chasing favorites, and will use this to assist in future target decisions on days with explosive potential. Very interesting stuff there.

 

[nickgrillo]

Nick, you can have Michigan all to yourself, and I hope you see 30 wedges this year. Me, I'll take my chances in the Plains, where we might have fewer tornadoes some years than other places, but at least when we do, you can see them.

Shane, I've had Michigan all to myself for years now... LOL! If I see a wedge this year, it will be on the plains as if I don't chase on the plains this year then I'll never get my documentary done! LOL.

My point I was trying to make is that Roanoke, Utica and quite a few other tornado events were totally viewable and chaseable. It's just that very few got down there in time to see them.

Why did so few people from Illinois see alot of tornadoes in 2003 or 2004? Maybe it's because there isn't enough hardcore chasers in Illinois, then... that will chase every opportunity possible like many of the chasers on the plains.

 

[Jeremy Lemanski]

I agree with most people's sayings, that the plains have much better setups for chaseable storms and better vis. compared to the upper midwest/great lakes. Sure, Ill, Indy, Ohio, Michigan can get some good setups and even an outbreak or two, but those are few and far between.

Here is something i have noticed over the past few years. It seems that the strongest tornados occur in the great plains, surprise surprise, but that most of the tornado related deaths occur in the ohio valley, upper midwest, etc. As many have said before, many of the events are surprises such as utica and the green lake wis. tornados. This leads to more of a shock factor when the storm hits. Also, John Q public doesn't usually think of bad weather when most of the day is cloudy and cool, as is the case during many of the mini supercells outbreaks along warm fronts that occur in this part of the country. So, when that warning is issured, most people think the NWS is off there nut and ignore it.

 

[Andrew Pritchard]

Im going to be bold and disagree with you all on the Illinois chaseability issue. I'm by no means, comparing the state to the plains, but merely stating that I dont think its a bad place to chase at all. Maybe you've all had some bad luck up here or something...but the road network here is terrific, as its a grid system almost anywhere you go...and I'll pay you to find a hill or forrest in this place. Just in 2004...this area had many chase days, with very visible tornadoes...a couple being

The much talked about April 20th outbreak had several strong/visible tornadoes...the most famous being the Utica tornado

http://www.creativejetstream.com/sitebuild.../granville1.jpg

But also further west several caught a downplayed strong tornado near Camp Grove, IL

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/apr2020...campgrove17.jpg

May 23rd...a case where I picked the wrong sup...but, near Bloomington, IL a nearly 300 yard wide F2 tornado tore up the countryside

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/may2320...004/chenoa1.jpg

May 30th yeilded a high risk chase that dropped one of the best Illinois tornadoes I've seen near Secor, IL

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/may3020...2004/secor4.jpg

Then there was the Roanoke F4, which we've all seen hundreds of times. While the claim may be made that even the Roanoke tornado was one that caught most off guard, it was a moderate risk day, and with CAPE values nearing 7000-8000 j/kg, its not as if there was no warning. Anyway...the point I'm trying to make with all these photos...is that Illinois has many chase chances over the course of the year...but you just have to be willing to chase it. We dont have nearly as many chasers in this state so there are quite a few less catches that get high attention levels...but they're definetly there.

 

[Glen Romine]

Im going to be bold and disagree with you all on the Illinois chaseability issue.

Fair enough.... but let's take a closer look at these events relative to 'good' events by central plains standards.

The much talked about April 20th outbreak had several strong/visible tornadoes...the most famous being the Utica tornado

http://www.creativejetstream.com/sitebuild.../granville1.jpg

But also further west several caught a downplayed strong tornado near Camp Grove, IL

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/apr2020...campgrove17.jpg

April 20th could count as an outbreak - which is pretty rare here. Tornadoes were reasonably visible - it did occur during daylight hours, and over (pretty much always) open, flat country. Cells were discrete, moving fast but not unreasonably so, and several cells were cyclic tornado producers. The downside is of course the fact that it was horribly forecast by all. If you can't forecast it - then it is really tough to chase it.

May 23rd...a case where I picked the wrong sup...but, near Bloomington, IL a nearly 300 yard wide F2 tornado tore up the countryside

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/may2320...004/chenoa1.jpg

This was a lone tornado event - definitely not an outbreak, and the tornado tracked 8 miles in 8 minutes - or 60 mph! Pretty tough to follow that. So I don't rank these event very high.

May 30th yeilded a high risk chase that dropped one of the best Illinois tornadoes I've seen near Secor, IL

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/events/may3020...2004/secor4.jpg

Here was a day that looked like it had promise - visibility was good - and this high base storm did produce a rather aesthetic tornado - but again this was the only tornado this cell produced, and then things became linear rapidly. So, this event gets mediocre marks for poor productivity.

Then there was the Roanoke F4, which we've all seen hundreds of times. While the claim may be made that even the Roanoke tornado was one that caught most off guard, it was a moderate risk day, and with CAPE values nearing 7000-8000 j/kg, its not as if there was no warning. Anyway...the point I'm trying to make with all these photos...is that Illinois has many chase chances over the course of the year...but you just have to be willing to chase it. We dont have nearly as many chasers in this state so there are quite a few less catches that get high attention levels...but they're definetly there.

This was an amazing tornado but nearly impossible to forecast - the cell was only 30 minutes old when it produced this tornado. Chasers desire long-lived supercells that track at reasonable speeds - this storm only had the latter. After this tornado, the system rapidly evolved into a bow echo - so again - not an ideal chase scenario.

So, really despite there being events in IL - none of these are ideal. By contrast, there were a number of ideal events elsewhere this past year.... so I'm guessing that you just haven't experienced what a really good chase is - then your standards would shun some of the events you highlighted.

Glen

 

[mikedeason]

and I'll pay you to find a hill or forrest in this place.

Lived in Quincy for many years, and I can tell you the Lincoln Hills region between the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers can be quite hilly and forested. Not a good place at all to chase. However, you're right about the rest of the state (except for the southern end as well, again pretty hilly and forested.)

So were do I pick up the check.

Regards,

Mike

 

[Fabian Guerra]

Andrew,

The idea is to dissuade others from chasing around here. The place to be these days is GRI!

Muuwahahahaha... :twisted:

Fabian