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2005 Storm Chasing Prediction Thread...

No one mentioned 5/10/03. I know that was a good day for IL chasers.

What a day that was for the IL crowd. My chase partner and I made an early morning decision between golfing and chasing. We sided with golfing as both of us had major studying to do. Darn PDE's. I remember a few days out the MM5 had resolved supercellular characteristics for southern WI in a simulation. Its the only time I've seen that operationally in the domain. However, over the next couple of days the models kept resolving the setup farther and farther south. (Another example of models forecasting the ideal moist airmass too far north)

I believe the Belmont, WI tornado 5-10-03 was from an embedded supercell. Things went linear as the evening went on. There is some awesome footage out there of this tornado from police video. I haven't seen anything like it.

Jeff, I totally agree with you also. On incredible days such as 5-30-04 was both potentially and in hindsight, there are going to be gray areas around the edges. For the upper midwest its very easy to get caught up in the areas of high/moderate/slight risk or the lack thereof.

I thought this was a prediction thread, not an argue about good/bad chase areas. Sheesh, talk about a thread hijack; this one looks like a doozy!

Ok, for my prediction... just a hunch....

peak in late April, might extend into May; slight uptick in June.