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2005 Storm Chasing Prediction Thread...

I'll predict that tornado reports this year will break another all-time record.

<sarcasm>
We all know that the climate has undergone some amazing change in the last 10 years and there are now nearly twice as many tornados per year.
</sarcasm>

Or...there could be other issues involved here?
 
Originally posted by mikedeason
if you're willing to set aside enough time to chase, and are willing to travel, you'll never have a bad year of chasing.

Jeff, given our track record, I cannot believe you wrote that! :lol:

Hence the caveat *enough* time :wink:

Yes we've definitely been proof that if you're limited to just a week or two of chasing - it won't always matter how active the season is. 2003 definitely was not kind to those who took their vacation anytime between mid May and early June.
 
Shoot... I bagged a tornado 1 week before my wedding which was 12 June of this past year ;)

Aaron

I am going to use your example as an excuse to go!! Where there is a will there is a way!
 
Originally posted by nickgrillo
Hasn't anybody noticed thou that for the past two years (03 and 04) the best stuff has shifted north or northeast of the traditional plains (OK and TX...)

I'm telling you its global warming... or Russians fooling around with the weather. Soon we will have to drive to Canada to chase.
 
It was soooo crappy here in southern ontario in 2004 that there is no place to go but up for us, so I predict a "better than last year" for us here. LOL

Be well, TR
 
I'm guessing a more southern active year, based on the way the
west has been getting hammered this winter. If I remember right, the deep south had little activity last year and the big events were further north. It always seems tornado patterns shifts to opposites when
there is an active year in one area.

Mike
 
F-5 Tornado rips through Circleville, Ohio in mid-May...

Okay, so now that my out-on-a-limb prediction is out of the way..

March will be bleak, maybe a March 27, 2004 day in theere someplace, but wouldn't hold out. In April, I'll venture out twice at most for some intense days of racing storms, maybe breaking my April curse. May may surprise a few.. it was gold in 2004, but I'm not sure how much of that to carry into this year. The past couple of years have been mad in May. I think Nature will relax a bit, giving only a couple good days as opposed to a massive week-long stretch of chasable days. June will see well for those Northern Plains chasers, including a decent (F-2 or higher) tornado in the Colorado Eastern Plains which Roger Hill and myself will see. July into August, I'll bet on the usual barrage of High Plains landspouts.

My predictions for myself..

TOTAL TORNADOES: 15 (April = 1, May = 8, June = 1, July/August = 5)
TOTAL TORNADO DAYS: 4
TOTAL MILEAGE: 13,837
 
Originally posted by Mickey Ptak+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mickey Ptak)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook
Illinois will become the new Oklahoma/Kansas. 8)

The hell it will. :evil:

Oklahoma has really been deprived so we need that to change in 2005.

:)
Mick[/b]


And Oklahoma should with a very active southern jet this year. if it hadnt been so cold we could have already had some good thunderstomrs this year in the southern plains.

Illinois?? Do they actually call those little things up there tornadoes. :lol:
 
Originally posted by Jay McCoy+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jay McCoy)</div>
Originally posted by Mickey Ptak@
<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook

Illinois will become the new Oklahoma/Kansas. 8)


The hell it will. :evil:

Oklahoma has really been deprived so we need that to change in 2005.

:)
Mick


And Oklahoma should with a very active southern jet this year. if it hadnt been so cold we could have already had some good thunderstomrs this year in the southern plains.

Illinois?? Do they actually call those little things up there tornadoes. :lol:[/b]

To us northerners, yep! :wink:

1782b50c216fd49103657484b2c73e27.jpg
 
You have to think of Illinois as a little Plains penninsula... :wink:

3cc79a0ddf6fba8349b375a123095bae.gif

BTW... what's up with Missouri and its tornado void? Some sort of topological feature?
 
Illinois has had more tornadoes than Oklahoma the last couple years, and easily led the nation in 2003. :D Forget US taking vacations...you all can make the several day trips out to OUR area.


To make my prediction...I'm gonna go and say, that this year will start earlier than usual...We, at least in IL are way overdue for an active March. Some of the state's best events have occured in the month of March...but its been forever since we had one.
 
Originally posted by Skip Talbot
You have to think of Illinois as a little Plains penninsula... :wink:



BTW... what's up with Missouri and its tornado void? Some sort of topological feature?

I think if you added in the years 2000 through 2004, that region would fill in pretty good. But hey, it's still a greater tornado risk than my area, near Detroit...
 
Originally posted by Dan Cook+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dan Cook)</div>
Originally posted by Mickey Ptak@
<!--QuoteBegin-Dan Cook

Illinois will become the new Oklahoma/Kansas. 8)


The hell it will. :evil:

Oklahoma has really been deprived so we need that to change in 2005.

:)
Mick

Tell me, how many big days were there in OK last year? :p[/b]

I'm warning you! Your gonna pull a "Dewey" and jinx it! :lol:
 
I stand by my previous post. However, this shouldn't be too bad of a drive for you Illini and Michiganites :wink: :

[Broken External Image]:http://sphs.angeltowns.net/images/wishcast.JPG

May 06, 2005. Cyclone bombs out to 980MB over MN & draws 85/75 Td Gulf air mass northward. SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear of 70 Kts. Tornadic supercell outbreak over E. Iowa, Wisconsin and N. Illinois congeals into a gargantuan derecho that blasts across lower Michican overnight.
 
Illinois...Yuck!

Fellow Chasers,

I live in IL and can tell you that its not worth coming up here. Don't even bother, especially in central IL. There are too many roads to choose from, most all of the "tornadoes" are actually sheriffnados. Plus, its really boring with nothing to see for miles and miles but corn and flatlands...not to mention there is never any chaser convergence. Man O man, it gets lonely out here in the spring with nobody out on the roads. :roll: :wink:

Fabian
 
with as many people chasing now of days i would love not to see anyone else. makes you feel like its just you and the storm.i am not saying other chasers being out there to is bad but it can be hetic watching the road,storm,and other people. so enjoy what you have.just my 0.02 :D
 
I agree with Chad.

As far as the Illini folks continuing their constant, Mac Brown-like campaign for their state's chaseability/tornadoes, I think it's more important to look at chaseable events, instead of the overall number of events. As far as chaseability, a bad year in the S Plains is usually better than a great year up north. How many of you Illinois guys saw double digit tornadoes in ILL in that year (2003?) you keep bragging about where ILL had over 100 tornadoes? My guess is a single digit number - 0 :lol:

If you're going to look at a five-year average/climatological map to judge where the best spot for tornadoes is, it'll be different every year. You have to look at decades-long averages to find the true areas of highest tornadic potential, because the averages are built from the fluctuations that tend to cycle out every 5-10 years (after all, if you don't have differing stats you can't really have an "average").

Nick, you can have Michigan all to yourself, and I hope you see 30 wedges this year. Me, I'll take my chances in the Plains, where we might have fewer tornadoes some years than other places, but at least when we do, you can see them.
 
I chased eastern Illinois a few times in 1992, and I had problems with haze each time. Many of the storms were linear and it made it difficult to pick out the tail end or find a good gap.

Tim
 
He He.... an argument about chasing in IL. I've been living in central IL for a few years now attending graduate school.... and was in Norman prior and grew up in the Tulsa area - so I'm pretty familiar with chasing both places. I rarely ever chase here in IL - often for the reason that Tim mentioned - frequent problems with poor visibility and rarely do you get good events with reasonable storm motions for chasing. The flat countryside and road network are fine - and there have been a few occasions when conditions were actually quite good - but those events I could probably count on two hands over five years. More often I travel to IA and NE to chase (MO is horrible), with the occasional trip to KS and OK. Sure, the tornado statistics for IL look pretty reasonable - but many events are after dark, embedded in linear structures, screaming at > 40 mph, or in thick soup haze that makes even finding storms difficult. Sure, there are times in the plains when conditions are similar - but classic, chaseable, discrete cells are much more common in the central plains in my experience.

Glen
 
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