2005 Storm Chasing Prediction Thread...

[Andrew Pastore]

I am getting married this summer so no chasing for me. But I do hope that you people have a good season so I can look through all the great photos and video.

 

[David Drummond]

I'll play devils advocate and predict 1988 making an encore performance this year! :twisted:

 

[Gabe Garfield]

I think the bulk of the activity will shift to the south this year. I expect an average year with a number of significant events. I wouldn't be surprised by a mega-event or two, with the rest of the season being somewhat below average (something like 1999 on the plains). Western Oklahoma should see more action this spring than they have had of late (owing to the central/northern plains monopoly on good action).

To tell you the truth, if I chase one day that is absolutely fantastic, I'll be content for the rest of the spring. I'm hoping this spring will deliver.

Gabe

 

[Shane Adams]

Originally posted by David Drummond
I'll play devils advocate and predict 1988 making an encore performance this year! :twisted:

Dave, you're making this prediction because you say you're taking 2005 off from chasing. I'm gonna be laughing my a$$ off the first time I bump into you out there this Spring under a massive cap, in between the weeks of Death Ridge. And I'm tell anyone around us that it's all your fault :twisted:

 

[Andy Wehrle]

Originally posted by Skip Talbot
so: another very active season with many chase opprotunities in the upper plains and midwest May-June.

I second this, Skip! Southern Wisconsin is overdue for a nice "classic" outbreak setup...which we have had, oh, NEVER in recorded history? June 23rd last year was not a classic synoptically evident outbreak, more of a fluke when all the parameters phased together at the 11th hour. The last few times it looked like there was going to be an outbreak (for example 5-30-04 and 4-11-01 it busted.

'Course if it does happen this year it'll be while I'm still up at college in GB.

 

[David Drummond]

Originally posted by Shane Adams+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Shane Adams)</div>

<!--QuoteBegin-David Drummond

I'll play devils advocate and predict 1988 making an encore performance this year! :twisted:

Dave, you're making this prediction because you say you're taking 2005 off from chasing. I'm gonna be laughing my a$$ off the first time I bump into you out there this Spring under a massive cap, in between the weeks of Death Ridge. And I'm tell anyone around us that it's all your fault :twisted:[/b]

Well, I am mostly taking off, not completely. Of course the few nasty supercells that do form will be along the dryline 50 miles from Lubbock with a questionable day of the cap breaking, keeping all you foreigners (Oklahoma folk) at home! ROLFMAO

 

[Justin Teague]

Well, I am mostly taking off, not completely. Of course the few nasty supercells that do form will be along the dryline 50 miles from Lubbock with a questionable day of the cap breaking, keeping all you foreigners (Oklahoma folk) at home! ROLFMAO

I'll be there David. Dave and I will bring our video by and show you what you missed. :lol:

 

[Jeff Wear]

It's gonna be another stinkeroo of a year for those of us in the southern plains. It's obvious that the northern plains states have entered a pact with Texas and most of Oklahoma (except Norman)....they traded us their snow for our tornadoes.

Kidding aside, I don't worry too much whether or not it will be an above average year or a below average year (at least nationwide)....if you're willing to set aside enough time to chase, and are willing to travel, you'll never have a bad year of chasing. It seems like even in a so called "bad year" there's always that cyclic supercell that drops tornado after tornado or that highly photogenic tornado we'll be seeing pictures of for years to come (2000 and 2002 come to mind). What I'd really like to see though is more days with tornadoes than usual in the Plains - even if we get fewer tornadoes overall than we did in 2004, if we get them on more days, and more spread out throughout the season in 2005 I would be more than happy.

 

[mikedeason]

if you're willing to set aside enough time to chase, and are willing to travel, you'll never have a bad year of chasing.

Jeff, given our track record, I cannot believe you wrote that! :lol:

Regards,

Mike

 

[Aaron Kennedy]

I am getting married this summer so no chasing for me. But I do hope that you people have a good season so I can look through all the great photos and video.

Shoot... I bagged a tornado 1 week before my wedding which was 12 June of this past year

Aaron

 

[KMcCallister]

I'll predict that tornado reports this year will break another all-time record.

<sarcasm>
We all know that the climate has undergone some amazing change in the last 10 years and there are now nearly twice as many tornados per year.
</sarcasm>

Or...there could be other issues involved here?

 

[Jeff Wear]

Originally posted by mikedeason

if you're willing to set aside enough time to chase, and are willing to travel, you'll never have a bad year of chasing.

Jeff, given our track record, I cannot believe you wrote that! :lol:

Hence the caveat *enough* time :wink:

Yes we've definitely been proof that if you're limited to just a week or two of chasing - it won't always matter how active the season is. 2003 definitely was not kind to those who took their vacation anytime between mid May and early June.

 

[Andrew Pastore]

Shoot... I bagged a tornado 1 week before my wedding which was 12 June of this past year

Aaron

I am going to use your example as an excuse to go!! Where there is a will there is a way!

 

[Skip Talbot]

Originally posted by nickgrillo
Hasn't anybody noticed thou that for the past two years (03 and 04) the best stuff has shifted north or northeast of the traditional plains (OK and TX...)

I'm telling you its global warming... or Russians fooling around with the weather. Soon we will have to drive to Canada to chase.

 

[Cstok]

VERY active from May 19th - 28th. :wink: