Andrew Pastore
I am getting married this summer so no chasing for me. But I do hope that you people have a good season so I can look through all the great photos and video.
2005 Storm Chasing Prediction Thread...
- Thread starter nickgrillo
- Start date
David Drummond
Member
I'll play devils advocate and predict 1988 making an encore performance this year! :twisted:
Gabe Garfield
EF5
I think the bulk of the activity will shift to the south this year. I expect an average year with a number of significant events. I wouldn't be surprised by a mega-event or two, with the rest of the season being somewhat below average (something like 1999 on the plains). Western Oklahoma should see more action this spring than they have had of late (owing to the central/northern plains monopoly on good action).
To tell you the truth, if I chase one day that is absolutely fantastic, I'll be content for the rest of the spring. I'm hoping this spring will deliver.
Gabe
To tell you the truth, if I chase one day that is absolutely fantastic, I'll be content for the rest of the spring. I'm hoping this spring will deliver.
Gabe
Shane Adams
Dave, you're making this prediction because you say you're taking 2005 off from chasing. I'm gonna be laughing my a$$ off the first time I bump into you out there this Spring under a massive cap, in between the weeks of Death Ridge. And I'm tell anyone around us that it's all your fault :twisted:
Andy Wehrle
EF5
I second this, Skip! Southern Wisconsin is overdue for a nice "classic" outbreak setup...which we have had, oh, NEVER in recorded history? June 23rd last year was not a classic synoptically evident outbreak, more of a fluke when all the parameters phased together at the 11th hour. The last few times it looked like there was going to be an outbreak (for example 5-30-04 and 4-11-01 it busted.
'Course if it does happen this year it'll be while I'm still up at college in GB.
David Drummond
Member
Well, I am mostly taking off, not completely. Of course the few nasty supercells that do form will be along the dryline 50 miles from Lubbock with a questionable day of the cap breaking, keeping all you foreigners (Oklahoma folk) at home! ROLFMAO
Justin Teague
EF3
I'll be there David. Dave and I will bring our video by and show you what you missed. :lol:
It's gonna be another stinkeroo of a year for those of us in the southern plains. It's obvious that the northern plains states have entered a pact with Texas and most of Oklahoma (except Norman)....they traded us their snow for our tornadoes.
Kidding aside, I don't worry too much whether or not it will be an above average year or a below average year (at least nationwide)....if you're willing to set aside enough time to chase, and are willing to travel, you'll never have a bad year of chasing. It seems like even in a so called "bad year" there's always that cyclic supercell that drops tornado after tornado or that highly photogenic tornado we'll be seeing pictures of for years to come (2000 and 2002 come to mind). What I'd really like to see though is more days with tornadoes than usual in the Plains - even if we get fewer tornadoes overall than we did in 2004, if we get them on more days, and more spread out throughout the season in 2005 I would be more than happy.
Kidding aside, I don't worry too much whether or not it will be an above average year or a below average year (at least nationwide)....if you're willing to set aside enough time to chase, and are willing to travel, you'll never have a bad year of chasing. It seems like even in a so called "bad year" there's always that cyclic supercell that drops tornado after tornado or that highly photogenic tornado we'll be seeing pictures of for years to come (2000 and 2002 come to mind). What I'd really like to see though is more days with tornadoes than usual in the Plains - even if we get fewer tornadoes overall than we did in 2004, if we get them on more days, and more spread out throughout the season in 2005 I would be more than happy.
mikedeason
EF5
Jeff, given our track record, I cannot believe you wrote that! :lol:
Regards,
Mike
Aaron Kennedy
EF5
Shoot... I bagged a tornado 1 week before my wedding which was 12 June of this past year
Aaron
KMcCallister
EF3
I'll predict that tornado reports this year will break another all-time record.
<sarcasm>
We all know that the climate has undergone some amazing change in the last 10 years and there are now nearly twice as many tornados per year.
</sarcasm>
Or...there could be other issues involved here?
<sarcasm>
We all know that the climate has undergone some amazing change in the last 10 years and there are now nearly twice as many tornados per year.
</sarcasm>
Or...there could be other issues involved here?
Hence the caveat *enough* time :wink:
Yes we've definitely been proof that if you're limited to just a week or two of chasing - it won't always matter how active the season is. 2003 definitely was not kind to those who took their vacation anytime between mid May and early June.
Andrew Pastore
Shoot... I bagged a tornado 1 week before my wedding which was 12 June of this past year
Aaron
I am going to use your example as an excuse to go!! Where there is a will there is a way!
Skip Talbot
EF5
I'm telling you its global warming... or Russians fooling around with the weather. Soon we will have to drive to Canada to chase.
