2005 Storm Chasing Prediction Thread...

Alright, the 2004 thread worked pretty good I made last Feburary, so it's time I make a 2005 thread. :wink:

Hey, the year has already started off active. A slight risk with a nice area hatched in for tornadoes and other severe weather has been issued for portions of the southern Plains all the way north to SW Illinois on Wednesday... and all this will occur on Jan 12!

It will be bizarre to have three above-average years in a row (03, 04 and now 05?), so it can sort of be a skeptical situation, I guess. But, hey anything is possible.

I hope it's a hardy year for tornadoes, because this will be the first year I will be chasing on the true plains! LOL... :D

What does everybody else think?

Will 05 be average, below or above above?

..Nick..
 
Well, if you consider "regression toward the mean", then 2005 cannot be as good as 2004.

I have no idea and I am not going to worry. My chase vacation is set and I will go regardless. Of course, my bad luck usually means a death ridge.

Bill Hark
 
With 03 and 04 being boomer years back to back this increases what an average chase year, is so I'm going with an upper average year. I'm wishing for all of it to be the last full week of May. That's when I'll be in the plains this year. Vacation already applyed for. Are we there yet?
 
2005

I hope to get my first good chase in by early to mid march of this year! Will probably have to head down to Oklahoma etc. On March 17th 2003 saw some AWSOME storms in central Oklahoma!! Hopefully this year will be another above average year for tornados!!
 
I couldn't tell you one way or the other what will happen in 2005 but I would really enjoy it to be like 2004 though becuase I missed out on two key days in 2004. I would like for 2005 to have more classic dryline LOVE (as Shane Adams would put it) in western Oklahoma. 2005 is yet to be seen and all I can do is go with the flow.

Mick
 
It should be an above average year but below 2004.

I think the big outbreaks will May 26th in the east Texas panhandle/west Oklahoma and May 30th in central kansas.

I look for June 12th to be all southern Nebraska/ North kansas
 
Depends on the number of storm chasers vs the actual events. It could be a below average year with more chasers/spotters and people will say it was an above average year when it wasn't.

I think the real question is how many chasers are there now as opposed to previous years?

Then again, I said the same thing last year. I say it will be an above average year, anyways. The Earth is heating up and spinning faster!

(In Saskatchewan there really isn't very many chasers but I think that is going to change soon.)

Jared
 
My guess is that the northeast Pacific will cool to normal or below, whereas the north Atlantic will hold on the warm side throughout the spring. This will tend to hold the ST jet down into Mexico northeastward into the southeast US. This is I think a good early pattern, evoking early May 2003 http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.4.26.2003.gif

I guess an about-average season altogether, with some really crazy chases May 5-15th.
 
Originally posted by Rockwell Schrock+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Rockwell Schrock)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-Mickey Ptak
I would like for 2005 to have more classic dryline LOVE (as Shane Adams would put it) in western Oklahoma.

Those shameless plugs just keep on coming, don't they? :D[/b]

What can I say we work well as a team. :lol:

P.S. Don't forget to take a trip down Meso Road also. :oops:

Mick
 
Alright how about this one...

We saw a trend this year with a lot of tornadic activity up in Iowa and areas further north than the usual OK, TX hotspots. Also the hurricane season was more active than usual. Both of these could possibly be due to warmer temperature all around. I'll bet that this trend is still on the upswing or at least near the peak still if its starting to cool off so: another very active season with many chase opprotunities in the upper plains and midwest May-June.
 
The best way to 'predict' a season, from my experience, is to guage the number of offerings a given month will present. As far as guessing the magnitude of an event, or even more far-fetched, the date, I'll be content to sit back and wait. I've made guesses at dates forever and I'm never even close. Now that enough years have passed to where the novelty of guessing is gone, I don't even try anymore. As far as a season itself, my stats indicate the following averages (give or take):

February Occasionally good for a single chase, usually if you're desperate or die-hard

March Usually a couple of tries this month, though most fare more like February than April. Overlooked often by pessimists because of storm speeds, but can provide great starts to a season if you're open-minded enough

April Probably the most unpredictable month of the main S Plains season. My April chase numbers have run from three or four to eleven. I guess that's an average of around seven chances, so we'll say six to be conservative

May Ah, the savior. If May don't get it done for ya, nothing will (south of I-70). May's always good for at least five chases, and that includes Gentlemen chasers in the S Plains. Some years you have to be patient, but if you get into the 20s with nothing, it's ok to start panicking.

June Easily the cruelest month of the S Plains season. I've had my best days of the year, and had no chases at all in the sixth month of the year. If you're a S Plains chaser having a bad May and thinking June is the answer, don't hold your breath. I'll give June four chances, tops, in an average year.

So by my experiences, that's close to an average chase year in the S Plains. That's 18 chases. My career average tornado/chase ratio is one in 5.1, which indicates I can expect around three tornado events this season. Three events can yield any number of tornadoes, so there's no way to guess a tornado total. But I'll go with three tornado days, with at least one being major.
 
2004 was a wet year around Tulsa. That ought to help get the dew points up to the right levels. All we need is some strong drylines and for the rumored El Nino not to suppress the LLJ's coming up from the Gulf, and we should have a good year!
 
I am getting married this summer so no chasing for me. But I do hope that you people have a good season so I can look through all the great photos and video.
 
I think the bulk of the activity will shift to the south this year. I expect an average year with a number of significant events. I wouldn't be surprised by a mega-event or two, with the rest of the season being somewhat below average (something like 1999 on the plains). Western Oklahoma should see more action this spring than they have had of late (owing to the central/northern plains monopoly on good action).

To tell you the truth, if I chase one day that is absolutely fantastic, I'll be content for the rest of the spring. I'm hoping this spring will deliver. :D

Gabe
 
Originally posted by David Drummond
I'll play devils advocate and predict 1988 making an encore performance this year! :twisted:

Dave, you're making this prediction because you say you're taking 2005 off from chasing. I'm gonna be laughing my a$$ off the first time I bump into you out there this Spring under a massive cap, in between the weeks of Death Ridge. And I'm tell anyone around us that it's all your fault :twisted:
 
Originally posted by Skip Talbot
so: another very active season with many chase opprotunities in the upper plains and midwest May-June.

I second this, Skip! Southern Wisconsin is overdue for a nice "classic" outbreak setup...which we have had, oh, NEVER in recorded history? June 23rd last year was not a classic synoptically evident outbreak, more of a fluke when all the parameters phased together at the 11th hour. The last few times it looked like there was going to be an outbreak (for example 5-30-04 and 4-11-01 it busted.

'Course if it does happen this year it'll be while I'm still up at college in GB.
 
Originally posted by Shane Adams+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Shane Adams)</div>
<!--QuoteBegin-David Drummond
I'll play devils advocate and predict 1988 making an encore performance this year! :twisted:

Dave, you're making this prediction because you say you're taking 2005 off from chasing. I'm gonna be laughing my a$$ off the first time I bump into you out there this Spring under a massive cap, in between the weeks of Death Ridge. And I'm tell anyone around us that it's all your fault :twisted:[/b]

Well, I am mostly taking off, not completely. Of course the few nasty supercells that do form will be along the dryline 50 miles from Lubbock with a questionable day of the cap breaking, keeping all you foreigners (Oklahoma folk) at home! ROLFMAO
 
Well, I am mostly taking off, not completely. Of course the few nasty supercells that do form will be along the dryline 50 miles from Lubbock with a questionable day of the cap breaking, keeping all you foreigners (Oklahoma folk) at home! ROLFMAO


I'll be there David. Dave and I will bring our video by and show you what you missed. :lol:
 
It's gonna be another stinkeroo of a year for those of us in the southern plains. It's obvious that the northern plains states have entered a pact with Texas and most of Oklahoma (except Norman)....they traded us their snow for our tornadoes.

Kidding aside, I don't worry too much whether or not it will be an above average year or a below average year (at least nationwide)....if you're willing to set aside enough time to chase, and are willing to travel, you'll never have a bad year of chasing. It seems like even in a so called "bad year" there's always that cyclic supercell that drops tornado after tornado or that highly photogenic tornado we'll be seeing pictures of for years to come (2000 and 2002 come to mind). What I'd really like to see though is more days with tornadoes than usual in the Plains - even if we get fewer tornadoes overall than we did in 2004, if we get them on more days, and more spread out throughout the season in 2005 I would be more than happy.
 
if you're willing to set aside enough time to chase, and are willing to travel, you'll never have a bad year of chasing.

Jeff, given our track record, I cannot believe you wrote that! :lol:

Regards,

Mike
 
I am getting married this summer so no chasing for me. But I do hope that you people have a good season so I can look through all the great photos and video.

Shoot... I bagged a tornado 1 week before my wedding which was 12 June of this past year ;)

Aaron
 
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