Todd Rittinger
EF4
It was soooo crappy here in southern ontario in 2004 that there is no place to go but up for us, so I predict a "better than last year" for us here. LOL
Be well, TR
Be well, TR
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2005 Storm Chasing Prediction Thread...
- Thread starter nickgrillo
- Start date
Mike Johnson
I'm guessing a more southern active year, based on the way the
west has been getting hammered this winter. If I remember right, the deep south had little activity last year and the big events were further north. It always seems tornado patterns shifts to opposites when
there is an active year in one area.
Mike
west has been getting hammered this winter. If I remember right, the deep south had little activity last year and the big events were further north. It always seems tornado patterns shifts to opposites when
there is an active year in one area.
Mike
Tony Laubach
EF5
F-5 Tornado rips through Circleville, Ohio in mid-May...
Okay, so now that my out-on-a-limb prediction is out of the way..
March will be bleak, maybe a March 27, 2004 day in theere someplace, but wouldn't hold out. In April, I'll venture out twice at most for some intense days of racing storms, maybe breaking my April curse. May may surprise a few.. it was gold in 2004, but I'm not sure how much of that to carry into this year. The past couple of years have been mad in May. I think Nature will relax a bit, giving only a couple good days as opposed to a massive week-long stretch of chasable days. June will see well for those Northern Plains chasers, including a decent (F-2 or higher) tornado in the Colorado Eastern Plains which Roger Hill and myself will see. July into August, I'll bet on the usual barrage of High Plains landspouts.
My predictions for myself..
TOTAL TORNADOES: 15 (April = 1, May = 8, June = 1, July/August = 5)
TOTAL TORNADO DAYS: 4
TOTAL MILEAGE: 13,837
Okay, so now that my out-on-a-limb prediction is out of the way..
March will be bleak, maybe a March 27, 2004 day in theere someplace, but wouldn't hold out. In April, I'll venture out twice at most for some intense days of racing storms, maybe breaking my April curse. May may surprise a few.. it was gold in 2004, but I'm not sure how much of that to carry into this year. The past couple of years have been mad in May. I think Nature will relax a bit, giving only a couple good days as opposed to a massive week-long stretch of chasable days. June will see well for those Northern Plains chasers, including a decent (F-2 or higher) tornado in the Colorado Eastern Plains which Roger Hill and myself will see. July into August, I'll bet on the usual barrage of High Plains landspouts.
My predictions for myself..
TOTAL TORNADOES: 15 (April = 1, May = 8, June = 1, July/August = 5)
TOTAL TORNADO DAYS: 4
TOTAL MILEAGE: 13,837
Dan Cook
EF5
Illinois will become the new Oklahoma/Kansas. 8)
Mickey Ptak
EF5
The hell it will. :evil:
Oklahoma has really been deprived so we need that to change in 2005.
Mick
Jay McCoy
EF5
Originally posted by Mickey Ptak+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mickey Ptak)</div>
The hell it will. :evil:
Oklahoma has really been deprived so we need that to change in 2005.
Mick[/b]
And Oklahoma should with a very active southern jet this year. if it hadnt been so cold we could have already had some good thunderstomrs this year in the southern plains.
Illinois?? Do they actually call those little things up there tornadoes. :lol:
Robert Dewey
EF5
Originally posted by Jay McCoy+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Jay McCoy)</div>
The hell it will. :evil:
Oklahoma has really been deprived so we need that to change in 2005.
Mick
And Oklahoma should with a very active southern jet this year. if it hadnt been so cold we could have already had some good thunderstomrs this year in the southern plains.
Illinois?? Do they actually call those little things up there tornadoes. :lol:[/b]
To us northerners, yep! :wink:
Skip Talbot
EF5
You have to think of Illinois as a little Plains penninsula... :wink:
BTW... what's up with Missouri and its tornado void? Some sort of topological feature?
BTW... what's up with Missouri and its tornado void? Some sort of topological feature?
Andrew Pritchard
EF5
Illinois has had more tornadoes than Oklahoma the last couple years, and easily led the nation in 2003. Forget US taking vacations...you all can make the several day trips out to OUR area.
To make my prediction...I'm gonna go and say, that this year will start earlier than usual...We, at least in IL are way overdue for an active March. Some of the state's best events have occured in the month of March...but its been forever since we had one.
Forget US taking vacations...you all can make the several day trips out to OUR area.To make my prediction...I'm gonna go and say, that this year will start earlier than usual...We, at least in IL are way overdue for an active March. Some of the state's best events have occured in the month of March...but its been forever since we had one.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Originally posted by Skip Talbot
You have to think of Illinois as a little Plains penninsula... :wink:
BTW... what's up with Missouri and its tornado void? Some sort of topological feature?
I think if you added in the years 2000 through 2004, that region would fill in pretty good. But hey, it's still a greater tornado risk than my area, near Detroit...
Dan Cook
EF5
Originally posted by Mickey Ptak+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Mickey Ptak)</div>
The hell it will. :evil:
Oklahoma has really been deprived so we need that to change in 2005.
Mick[/b]
Tell me, how many big days were there in OK last year?
Robert Dewey
EF5
Originally posted by Dan Cook+--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Dan Cook)</div>
The hell it will. :evil:
Oklahoma has really been deprived so we need that to change in 2005.
Mick
Tell me, how many big days were there in OK last year?
I'm warning you! Your gonna pull a "Dewey" and jinx it! :lol:
Andy Wehrle
EF5
I stand by my previous post. However, this shouldn't be too bad of a drive for you Illini and Michiganites :wink: :
[Broken External Image]:http://sphs.angeltowns.net/images/wishcast.JPG
May 06, 2005. Cyclone bombs out to 980MB over MN & draws 85/75 Td Gulf air mass northward. SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear of 70 Kts. Tornadic supercell outbreak over E. Iowa, Wisconsin and N. Illinois congeals into a gargantuan derecho that blasts across lower Michican overnight.
[Broken External Image]:http://sphs.angeltowns.net/images/wishcast.JPG
May 06, 2005. Cyclone bombs out to 980MB over MN & draws 85/75 Td Gulf air mass northward. SRH in excess of 500 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear of 70 Kts. Tornadic supercell outbreak over E. Iowa, Wisconsin and N. Illinois congeals into a gargantuan derecho that blasts across lower Michican overnight.
Khristian Snyder
EF3
Looking good for so. cal.!
Fabian Guerra
EF1
Illinois...Yuck!
Fellow Chasers,
I live in IL and can tell you that its not worth coming up here. Don't even bother, especially in central IL. There are too many roads to choose from, most all of the "tornadoes" are actually sheriffnados. Plus, its really boring with nothing to see for miles and miles but corn and flatlands...not to mention there is never any chaser convergence. Man O man, it gets lonely out here in the spring with nobody out on the roads. :roll: :wink:
Fabian
Fellow Chasers,
I live in IL and can tell you that its not worth coming up here. Don't even bother, especially in central IL. There are too many roads to choose from, most all of the "tornadoes" are actually sheriffnados. Plus, its really boring with nothing to see for miles and miles but corn and flatlands...not to mention there is never any chaser convergence. Man O man, it gets lonely out here in the spring with nobody out on the roads. :roll: :wink:
Fabian
