12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Robert Dewey]

Based on the 0z NGM, I'm predicting 1-2 inches of ice accumulation here in southern MI and northern IN. May God be with us.

 

[rdale]

Based on the 0z NGM, I'm predicting 1-2 inches of ice accumulation here in southern MI and northern IN. May God be with us.

No joke posting in a forecast thread without smileys -- new users might not recognize that the model you refer to no longer exists

 

[Robert Dewey]

No joke posting in a forecast thread without smileys -- new users might not recognize that the model you refer to no longer exists

LOL. At least the NAM is holding on to <32F SFC temps a bit longer... still, the good QPF doesn't move in until after SFC temps warm.

 

[rdale]

Agreed. I'm hoping they drop the WSW for Lansing and Jackson very soon, as I'm getting a boatload of concerned people wanting to cancel Christmas Eve services or moving travel plans. I've told them all to continue as if they never heard about the Winter Storm...

 

[Stephen Locke]

BUST . . .

It looks like the moisture is GONE in KC by 18z THU.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/WRF/SP/wrfSP_0_30mb_dewp_18.gif

 

[John Farley]

Both the NAM and GFS bring the low to somewhere near STL by midnight tomorrow night - east of earlier tracks. Then, as it interacts with the energy to the north, it is projected to move due north or even northwest. If this verifies it will bring the snow closer to STL, but neither model predicts as much for STL as the several inches mentioned in the excerpt posted above from the STL NWS office's forecast discussion. One reason is that, as the low moves north or especially if it moves northwest, it carries the deformation zone with it away from STL. Now if it were to get a little farther east or were to move northeast rather than north or northwest after passing STL, things could be a little different.

Based on radar trends, it looks like the low that was near Santa Fe this afternoon is now southwest of Lubbock. Although others have described it as moving due east, it looks to me from the radar trend like it may still be moving somewhat to the southeast, consistent with a more southerly track.

Storm totals in NM include 5-7 inches in the Santa Fe area, 4 inches in the Albuquerque foothills, and the big winner 18 inches at Ski Apache near Ruidoso (and 8 inches in Ruidoso itself), all substantially more than was predicted. Looks like some pretty intense snow in the Texas panhandle right now as well.

 

[Jeremy Den Hartog]

I would say we have gotten about 6 inches in the Mankato area so far with some thunder snow (on radar) just east/southeast of town with heavy snow falling in town...

Edit: sorry, I just noticed a new thread started for these reports so I reposted this same thing over there...

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

I am starting to believe my RUC theory more and more as I watch that giant swath of snow in the TX Panhandle move N/NE instead of E/ENE towards Dallas. This is EXACTLY what the RUC is showing and it brings the surface low into NE Texas at 12z and then it begins to move north along the OK/AR border! I am beginning to believe this model as it tends to pick up on more subtle real time developments unlike the NAM and GFS. I may be right, I may be wrong but the RUC sure does look good at least for OK/KS.

Im believing the RUC also... This precip in SW OK and Texas is going pretty much N N NE. Good news for me. Lets hope it keeps this track and the freezing line keeps moving SSE. Guessing 3.5 inches by tomorrow noon.

 

[mark plate]

Since when does the RUC go out beyond 12 hours????

 

[Joel Wright]

Since when does the RUC go out beyond 12 hours????

Up to 48hrs actually. It's VERY inaccurate beyond 12hrs though so it's basically not even worth looking at. In the traditional 12hr range it's much better.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/pig.cgi?13km_Backup+am

 

[Chris Carter]

I'm just lost as to what to expect for the next 48 hours here in Omaha and what i will return to back in Lincoln, and if i will be able to make my appointment with UNL on Monday.

Guess I will just wait and see.

 

[Andrew Francis]

Yea my last post was worded poorly.

I was putting it in context of the local media broadcasts for the 10:00 news.


They issue their own little 'heavy snow warnings' and i was referring to their snowfall total maps. Also they use 'travelors advisory' for 'winter weather advisory'.... OKC is weird like that


Sorry i was unclear on that entire post, I was thinking everyone lived in the OKC metro and was used to the overzealous meteorologists on the 3 main stations.



Back to the storm, it looks like a nice precip shield is busting into southwest OK. This could be interesting in the morning!

 

[Chris Sokol]

Listening to Public Safety units in the Altus area on radioreference.com and the roads are going downhill fast. Heavy snow is falling ATM, already causing travel problems.

 

[Chris Carter]

3:15 am Thursday, light snow starts falling in bellevue. Not much in returns to the south of us, most of it is just to north, probably where Mike Hollingshead is at. Hoping that the increase in blips to the south of us will continue to expand and increase in intensity.

 

[Jason Boggs]

Parts of the eastern TX panhandle are now in a blizzard warning until noon on Thursday.