12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Chris Carter]

One local TV met here in Tulsa has been predicting 1-3 inches of snow tomorrow while the NWS Tulsa is forecasting 4-8 inches for the city and are now talking about raising their forecast totals. This could be a dangerous situation with the very cold air coming down on very gusty northwest winds. We could end up with near blizzard like conditions.

This is why i don't listen to TV stations, they are paid to predict the weather and look good. NWS meteorologists just get paid to predict the weather, and in some cases predict the weather for the good looking meteorologists on TV stations.

First wave is moving out of the area so we lose this rain and watch the temp drop a little and freeze the slushy mess that currently is over eastern NE. I just hope that when the second wave comes in, probably later this afternoon, its in the form of sleet and snow.

 

[Chris Sokol]

OK...I have a question. As the cold front has moved through the OKC Metro area roughly 8-12 hours ahead of schedule, will this not have the effect of tracking the low further south? And if I read this correctly, this would put Central-Eastern Oklahoma into a heavier snow potential zone, correct?

 

[Jason Bolt]

This might be better in a new thread - but to address it quickly, that's not what all the research I've seen indicates. Very few people say "I'm not going to believe their forecast Thursday, because it is different from yesterday's forecast for Thursday." You're jumping to the conclusion that people tuned in yesterday and didn't see a WSW, so determined that any future upgrade would be ignored. I don't think Joe Public acts that way.



If they drive out tonight in blizzard conditions, when a blizzard watch had been issued 24 hours in advance, and a blizzard warning (assuming) will be issued, I think it's their fault - not that of the forecasters.

I don't know about your research. I'm just going off of conversations this morning w/ 12 or so different people with travel plans into or out of this area. While that is not a scientific sample, it is concerning to me. Also, please show me where I am attempting to blame anyone.

 

[Chris Heater]

OK...I have a question. As the cold front has moved through the OKC Metro area roughly 8-12 hours ahead of schedule, will this not have the effect of tracking the low further south? And if I read this correctly, this would put Central-Eastern Oklahoma into a heavier snow potential zone, correct?

So you've seen the possibility of a further south track? The NAM (I think that's the one) has shifted the track south and east, which is why most of Missouri is under a WSW. Another big shift east, and I'll FINALLY be in for it.

One can wish, right? I want the snow...so share some with us!

 

[Brendon Lindsey]

Well, I haven't rally paid attention to previous runs of the models, but this 12z gfs has a 15+" bullseye occuring in North Central Oklahoma, that would be crazy if it verified. Also the TUL WFO graphics showing 8"+ inches towards I-35. Looks like I may see a bit of snow here in Enid... Woop Woop

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/091223180452.gif

ECMWF been solid till the system gets closer lol. 12z shoves it clear over to IL.

 

[Jason Bolt]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/091223180452.gif

ECMWF been solid till the system gets closer lol. 12z shoves it clear over to IL.

That should make the Illinois wishcaster happy.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

That should make the Illinois wishcaster happy.

lol it has some work to do.

As far as here, got right at around 1/4 inch ice on the metal bird feeder thing outside with the flat edge on it. Round edged objects a bit less. I stuck a fork out in the snow(end up in the air) to see exactly if it was still freezing or not, since it is so damn close everywhere and it has now stopped freezing on it.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

12Z GFS Data

Per the 12Z GFS and WRF looks like Northern half of OK could have a Blizzard conditions in 24 Hours from now.

I have been amazed at the GFS handling of the system and the EURO also has very high QPF 1-2" liquid over the area.

The 950mb winds are over 50knts with heavy snow at 0Z. This is going to be a CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR NORTHERN OK INTO KS on Thursday-Friday.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/gfs036hr_925_wnd.gif

Snow Totals 12Z GFS:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=ICT

I think even if you cut the numbers in half still going to have a very serious Blizzard.

Tulsa NWS is also very concerned about the new 12Z data per discussion.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM WHICH PLACES MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE GUN FOR
WINTER WEATHER...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO
INCLUDE AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS MCALESTER TO SALLISAW...AND HAVE
UPPED THE FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE IN THE WATCH AREA.
BECOMING MORE CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BUT THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE
EVENT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QUITE A BIT
OF DISPARITY IN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS.

 

[Skip Talbot]

That should make the Illinois wishcaster happy.

Yeah I don't know about that, the east and south side of the low is forecast to get mostly rain out of this system. Illinois looks like it'll remain mostly on the liquid side of the freeze line even if the low does track further east. Up here in Chicago the forecast has shifted from snow, to freezing rain, to rain over the past few days. I'm glad for that actually, you guys can keep the winter weather.

 

[Jason Bolt]

Yeah I don't know about that, the east and south side of the low is forecast to get mostly rain out of this system. Illinois looks like it'll remain mostly on the liquid side of the freeze line even if the low does track further east. Up here in Chicago the forecast has shifted from snow, to freezing rain, to rain over the past few days. I'm glad for that actually, you guys can keep the winter weather.

Don't want it. I want it to land squarely on Urbana.

 

[Chris Heater]

Don't want it. I want it to land squarely on Urbana.

That makes two of us. It's probably just a fluke...but if the models continue the eastward shift, I just might have to stop wishcasting and actually believe we may get more snow than expected

 

[Chris Sokol]

OUN has ammended the forecast, moving the snow-changeover time to around midnight. This could affect snowfall totals quite drastically.

 

[Scott Weberpal]

In Cedar Rapids, Iowa with Brandon Sullivan shooting for a few local TV stations. Have about .3" of ice covering most untreated surfaces at this point.

 

[Chris Carter]

Im noticing the newer runs are not hanging the surface low back as long it originally was yesterday. GFS still hanging it back the longest, but its farther south into the NW corner of MO, instead of IA now.