12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Chris Wilburn]

Central OK reporting in.

I like what I am starting to see :]

I hear you there even though I actually live in extreme NE OK. The snowfall totals on the GFS for central OK and points north & northwest are amazing! I can't imagine actually getting 18-20 inches in that area, esp. because times before haven't quite panned out (others have though). Of course the NAM is quite different for your area than the GFS in regards to amounts.

The track of the surface low looks to track more from central TX to SE OK through central Arkansas and central Missouri. If this holds true OK could have some very high snowfall totals as the surface low & upper level low will be just far enough east to allow the wrapping around of snow to its west and northwest in KS & OK. The surface low on the NAM isn't as intense as the GFS. It will be interesting to see which model ultimately is correct. Since we are less than 36 hours or so from snow falling, the accuracy of the models should get better. I agree with Jeff that this could be a major event for OK. It looks like the snow should begin to fall sometime before noon or just after noon depending where in OK you live.

This should be an active 48 hour period coming up from 18z Wednesday through 18z Friday. All modes of weather possible & even tornadoes in TX & LA. It will be interesting to see how all of this unfolds.

 

[Chris Carter]

Well its looks like the 06Z NAM is continuing the trend to the east, as it takes that heavy snow further east towards NE Oklahoma and NW corner of Arkansas.

I find it interesting that the NAM takes the low track almost on a complete circle around the borders of IA, starting in the SE corner.

Looks like the 06Z GFS is still keeping that band over Central OK and moves it NE into SE Kansas. Just the precip it brings into OK and Eastern KS is just insane! You guys could get a significant snowfall by Christmas should the GFS and NAM be correct.

 

[Chris Carter]

Already lightning returns coming out of the NE corner of Kansas. Looks like the rain/snow line is setting up just south of the I-80 corridor from Lincoln to Omaha this morning.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

The 6Z GFS Whats NEXT?

The GFS has the upper low during the day on Thursday Far NE/TX moving toward Joplin by 0Z with 190 meter height falls in six hours as the whole vort goes negatively tilted.

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_500_GPHDIFGPH_36HR.gif

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_500_GPHDIFGPH_42HR.gif

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_500_GPHTMPVORT_42HR.gif

The 850mb low deepens rapidly with 850 winds are from the NW up to 65knts from Salina/Wichita/TULSA wrapping back east toward NW/AR.

With heavy snow falling at the same time would expect a BLIZZARD by LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NE/OK-SC-SE/KS

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS_850_GPHTMPRH_42HR.gif

New Snow Totals based on the 6Z GFS:

http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_51HR.gif

 

[Jason Haller]

okay so looking at the latest GFS runs makes me wonder. Why is TOP and other NWS offices pushing all the heavy snow east? TOP has taken Manhattan out of the heavy snow all together and moved it completely east of us. Seems to me looking at the models that the low is going to track close to the Kansas, Missouri border would that not put eastern half of Kansas in the prime snow zone instead of the eastern 1/4 as they are showing? The only thing I could see in their thinking is that the system is going to develop a dry slot and wrap it very close to the center of the low. Obviously they get paid the big buck and I just do this as a hobby but I really believe they are underplaying this quite a bit right not. Hope I am wrong to some degree.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

okay so looking at the latest GFS runs makes me wonder. Why is TOP and other NWS offices pushing all the heavy snow east? TOP has taken Manhattan out of the heavy snow all together and moved it completely east of us. Seems to me looking at the models that the low is going to track close to the Kansas, Missouri border would that not put eastern half of Kansas in the prime snow zone instead of the eastern 1/4 as they are showing? The only thing I could see in their thinking is that the system is going to develop a dry slot and wrap it very close to the center of the low. Obviously they get paid the big buck and I just do this as a hobby but I really believe they are underplaying this quite a bit right not. Hope I am wrong to some degree.

I agree and I think they are underplaying this mainly because if they are wrong it would be worse to say 20+ inches of snow instead of 6+ inches of snow and be wrong even though at this point there is a good chance this is going to happen. I think however we may need blizzard watches for OK and much of E KS that aren't already in one as things could get crazy around here Thursday into Friday starting in OK moving NE into E KS Thursday night well into Friday!

 

[Jason Bolt]

I guess I am the anti-wishcaster. All those wanting the big snow can have it! Here at the KS/MO/OK junction, I DON'T WANT IT!!! Being in the public safety sector, I have been watching this closely, and was very caught off guard by the shift in the pattern. Yesterday I wasn't seeing this as being a big event for us. The general public here is oblivious and it is probably too late to convince them of the pending danger as public (TV) forecasts here have said rain => snow w/ little accumulation. This has the potential to be a huge deal not only due to the severity and timing, but also due to the lack of awareness by many.

 

[Jason Haller]

I guess I am the anti-wishcaster. All those wanting the big snow can have it! Here at the KS/MO/OK junction, I DON'T WANT IT!!! Being in the public safety sector, I have been watching this closely, and was very caught off guard by the shift in the pattern. Yesterday I wasn't seeing this as being a big event for us. The general public here is oblivious and it is probably too late to convince them of the pending danger as public (TV) forecasts here have said rain => snow w/ little accumulation. This has the potential to be a huge deal not only due to the severity and timing, but also due to the lack of awareness by many.

Completely agree . I really feel the weather service is dropping the ball and seem like it could be too late being 24 hrs out. I don't wish what could happen on any one especial with all the travel that will occur.

 

[Chris Allington]

Light icing here in Omaha, at my house we have about a tenth of an inch, but only 5 miles south it is above freezing in Bellevue and Millard, we will likely get above freeing briefly today and then go back to ice before a transition to snow tonight.

 

[Mike Hollingshead]

This is kind of interesting to me. The layer of air trying to warm above the ground is paper thin....like ground up then temp falls fast before it warms again near/around 850mb. Just look how far south the freezing line is at 925mb. Down around Falls City or so. 850mb 0c line Omaha and north. Can see just how thin the area near the ground tries to warm and above that it is dropping off pretty good. Just feeling these drops out here you can tell they are on the verge of being sleet. I just wonder how much of that cooler air JUST off the surface/below the warming inversion above it, will get brought down. Seems it would more than offset any warming coming down with the liquid precip...or could. But I've never done much of any precip type forecasting. I'm just trying to gauge how much it could want to stay JUST below freezing at the surface here and seems it could happen here/near here, even as close to freezing as we are starting this.

And now I see those "drops" are bouncing/sleet. The cedar? trees out here have tops starting to hang over from the freezing rain.

NAM now lines up the snow max right down the MO river.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_72HR.gif

Edit: Sort of funny closing I just saw scroll on the tv. Conagra Foods Ice Rink is closed today LOL.

 

[rdale]

I really feel the weather service is dropping the ball and seem like it could be too late being 24 hrs out.

If the NWS and the local TV mets are all saying it's no big deal - they must be seeing something... If the TV mets think it'll be bad, but aren't going to say it on the air because the NWS didn't issue a WSW, then that says something worse

 

[Jason Bolt]

If the NWS and the local TV mets are all saying it's no big deal - they must be seeing something... If the TV mets think it'll be bad, but aren't going to say it on the air because the NWS didn't issue a WSW, then that says something worse

Rob, I haven't seen a TV today but I think what he was saying (and what I'm seeing as well is yesterday and the day before they were downplaying things. I'm talking about NE OK and the eastern 1/3 of KS. It's not just TV mets. Like O'Keefe pointed out, ICT went from a Blizzard Watch on Monday to a WSW to no headlines for eastern KS by Tuesday morning. A change now back to snow apocalypse seems to have the general public thinking "well they can't make up their minds so let's go! Nothing will happen." It just seems like the forecast progression will result in more people on the road than if there had been four days of blizzard watch with high confidence. Not blaming anyone, models have not had a good handle on this system. I just think we have potential for thousands of travelers to be caught not heeding today's forecasts.

 

[rdale]

A change now back to snow apocalypse seems to have the general public thinking "well they can't make up their minds so let's go! Nothing will happen."

This might be better in a new thread - but to address it quickly, that's not what all the research I've seen indicates. Very few people say "I'm not going to believe their forecast Thursday, because it is different from yesterday's forecast for Thursday." You're jumping to the conclusion that people tuned in yesterday and didn't see a WSW, so determined that any future upgrade would be ignored. I don't think Joe Public acts that way.

I just think we have potential for thousands of travelers to be caught not heeding today's forecasts.

If they drive out tonight in blizzard conditions, when a blizzard watch had been issued 24 hours in advance, and a blizzard warning (assuming) will be issued, I think it's their fault - not that of the forecasters.

 

[Chris Carter]

Well once the northern system and southern system merge later today, the models will have a good handle on this system. But it seems that most of the models are in good agreement with what happens prior to that, its after they merge, the models stray into different scenarios.

 

[Greg McLaughlin]

One local TV met here in Tulsa has been predicting 1-3 inches of snow tomorrow while the NWS Tulsa is forecasting 4-8 inches for the city and are now talking about raising their forecast totals. This could be a dangerous situation with the very cold air coming down on very gusty northwest winds. We could end up with near blizzard like conditions.