12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Chris Carter]

Wow, looking at the first 48 hours of the 00Z GFS, and it takes the low even further south, now across Central TX. In fact it takes a heavy snow band forming over OKC and moves it N towards Wichita and SE Kansas.

It pegs an 1" of precip within a 6 hour period in temps below freezing over Central OK and into SE Kansas. That could easily be a foot of snow if that pans out correctly.

Still shows that the surface low moves into Central and Western IA Christmas day and just sits there until Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon it begins to move east into IL and continues to weaken.

00Z GEM should be coming out within the hour, right?

 

[Dennis Dennison]

As stated in another posting I made-Quite a lot of energy passed thru Arizona today-I am certain its going to add to Texas and Oklahoma weather on Wednesday

 

[rdale]

00Z GEM should be coming out within the hour, right?

It's been out - showing a pocket of 30mm snow in E/SE OK. Not sure I understand the "energy" comment above though.

 

[Chris Heater]

Thus far...this storm is progged to completely miss me, which makes it the 2nd one to completely dodge us. Whoever does get the snow, it'll be VERY nasty. Some models (GFS from what I saw) are showing snowfalls approaching and exceeding 20"!!! That's just insane if that verified. Models have shifted it further and further east. Not enough for me yet...but I guess there will always be hope

About the track of the storm...is it rare for a storm to take a track like it is? I don't remember EVER seeing a storm track like this on. Really, really weird. Will be interesting to watch!

 

[Chris Carter]

It's been out - showing a pocket of 30mm snow in E/SE OK. Not sure I understand the "energy" comment above though.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html

They must not have updated the site yet. Guess i will a little bit longer. Sounds like it hops on GFS idea.

 

[Dustin Wilcox]

Wow, the Boy's from Oklahoma will enjoy the 0Z GFS, has 2" an hour snowfall rates for a 12hr+ period...

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_12HR-ACCUM-SNOW_48HR.gif

That'd just be insanly cool to see if it managed to verify!

 

[Mike Smith]

This increasingly looks like a life-threatening blizzard east of U.S. 81 from END across KS and NEB. The 48hr. ICT GFS grid point at 850mb has 65 knot winds!

 

[Chris Carter]

Walked outside here in Lincoln to check my mail across the street, nearly slipped and broke my neck several times. Nice thin layer of ice already frozen all over my car due to the freezing mist and fog.

 

[John MacKay]

Count me in the 'I have no idea anymore' crowd. Both NAM and GFS went to this more southerly track, then moving northward after it reaches NW AR/SW MO. I agree with Mike that this could be a blizzard scenario east of US 81, but I would wait to see what the 06z and 12z runs say before thinking the NWS areas need to place a Blizzard Watch or Warning out into eastern KS, into NE OK.

The low came through here in AZ today with a 15 degree drop behind it, but fairly warm ahead of it and some decent rain for the desert. As of now, though, it isn't much different from the system 15 days ago (which was fairly strong). On the local radar, it seems the low is trying to track almost due east in the last 4-6 hours or so which would, in the short term, increase confidence in the 00z NAM and GFS runs.

Again, I have no idea, really, but I'll be flying into Wichita for Christmas at noon tomorrow from Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport, so I'll get to experience either the mayhem or the bust.

 

[Jeff Piotrowski]

The Plains Severe Weather & Blizzard

WOW!!!

This is going to be a HIGH END EVENT!!

It now appears that all forms of weather including Tornados, Flooding, Thunder Snow, Ice storm, Crippling Blizzard are going to affect a large area.

The new GFS 20+ SNOW,WRF 6-12+ SNOW,CAN 12+ SNOW 18Z & 0Z run is coming better agreement for a MAJOR SNOW EVENT for Oklahoma on Thursday.

I would expect winter storm Watches or Warnings for parts of OK by morning packages. Looks like Severe watchs may also go up during the afternoon & evening for parts of OK,TX,AR.

I also expect emergency declarations to be issued for many states so that the National Guard can be deployed for motorist stuck on highways.

 

[Lance Maxwell]

Can't believe that after seeing the 0z GFS and NAM that OUN has yet to issue a WSW for its CWA.....even if they both are way overboard. Considering the timing I would expect them to err on the side of caution.

 

[Kevin Rolfs]

Per the latest the models, it looks like Christmas here in NE Oklahoma may be a little whiter than was thinking earlier today. Hopefully latest NAM/GFS model runs stick to it, they're cutting it down to the wire. A good 4-6 in would make me happy but more snow would be icing on the cake.

 

[Mike Smith]

Count me in the 'I have no idea anymore' crowd. Both NAM and GFS went to this more southerly track, then moving northward after it reaches NW AR/SW MO. I agree with Mike that this could be a blizzard scenario east of US 81, but I would wait to see what the 06z and 12z runs say before thinking the NWS areas need to place a Blizzard Watch or Warning out into eastern KS, into NE OK.

Normally, I would agree. But, with Thursday being Christmas Eve, waiting in this case is not a good idea. People need time to make alternate plans (i.e., moving up their trip 24 hours) in order to avoid the storm.

ICT has not played this one well (and I rarely criticize them, they are usually excellent) with a blizzard watch issued on Monday for Wed. Night/Thursday. Then backed it down to a WSW. Then cancelled all headlines today for ICT and points east. That has induced blogs and at least one TV station to talk about the storm being less than originally thought. So, we need to overcome that complacency with at least a blizzard watch for the eastern 2/5ths of KS and adjacent areas of OK and NE. They may need to go straight to a blizzard warning.

 

[Nathan Withrow]

I do not know what to think! If these models hold true, then my area will be in for a major snowstorm! I have been following all the models, and been all over the place as far as weather sites go, to check what everybody is thinking about this storm. The GFS/NAM changes so much that I do not know if I should get excited or not! 2 inches of snow at one time to 15 inches now!

Maybe it will show a trace later tomorrow, lol!

 

[Andrew Francis]

Central OK reporting in.

I like what I am starting to see :]