Chris Carter
EF3
I find it funny that the GFS has nearly a "S" shaped track for this system. The latest 12Z GEM and EC have really come into agreement with this system though.
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12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm
- Thread starter Joel Wright
- Start date
Dustin Wilcox
EF5
By EC I assume you mean ECWMF? If so where can I view that already? Really the models as inconsistent has they have been, keep yielding the same story, as I see it, it's best to view this as two separate storms, first storm being a bout of heavy snow in C/NE NE moving North-East from there into SE SD and S MN, with a rain/snow battle setting up somewhere across E NE into W IA. The second storm will be as the sfc low lifts North into (?) W IA... by Thursday night, this will bring a second bout of heavy snow on the backside to parts IA into MN and maybe skirting E NE... Obviously the insane snowfall totals will be in areas where the two "bouts" overlap each other... Ice could still be a serious factor for a narrow area across E NE/NW IA!
http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_SFC_ACCUMPRECIP_102HR.gif
Still crazy for December; where that poke up the Missouri ends up as all snow will be digging out for a long while, and where the transition occurs will likely be spending christmas in the dark...
Chris Carter
EF3
Sorry i just realized the 12Z ECWMF I looked at was yesterday's and not todays. 
Interesting note on the GEM is that its timing has slowed to still have snow in the Eastern NE and most of IA area by 00Z Saturday.
Interesting note on the GEM is that its timing has slowed to still have snow in the Eastern NE and most of IA area by 00Z Saturday.
Robert Dewey
EF5
I get the ECMWF and UKMET via "MetWise Net" @ $10/mo.. The UKMET is out about as fast as the GFS, and the ECMWF lags by a few hours for the 0z/12z runs. In other words, I'll be able to see the 12z ECMWF in a couple/few hours
Only problem is that the time steps are ridiculous, and the amount of data is pretty thin.
Only problem is that the time steps are ridiculous, and the amount of data is pretty thin.
Mike Hollingshead
http://models-ecmwf.blogspot.com/
EC usually shows up first on the Plymouth State links on there...usually before/near 12.
I am really wondering about the whole ice idea, at least around western IA/eastern NE. Not any really cold air to be tapped. Fairly cold over MN I guess and should have some ne sfc winds. If somewhere around here is able to stay below freezing for that I think it is going to be extremely localized. Over east and then north I could see some better chances at big ice.
Seems the model trends lately are to merge the two systems later and not dig the lead one as much. Which is moving the big snow line just west of the MO river(well west sfc low track is doing that, just don't care for how late it wants to really wrap up and how far north the sfc low is by then). Really wishing we could get some of that se sfc low track thinking back into things. Maybe the EC will save the day with that here shortly.
EC usually shows up first on the Plymouth State links on there...usually before/near 12.
I am really wondering about the whole ice idea, at least around western IA/eastern NE. Not any really cold air to be tapped. Fairly cold over MN I guess and should have some ne sfc winds. If somewhere around here is able to stay below freezing for that I think it is going to be extremely localized. Over east and then north I could see some better chances at big ice.
Seems the model trends lately are to merge the two systems later and not dig the lead one as much. Which is moving the big snow line just west of the MO river(well west sfc low track is doing that, just don't care for how late it wants to really wrap up and how far north the sfc low is by then). Really wishing we could get some of that se sfc low track thinking back into things. Maybe the EC will save the day with that here shortly.
Robert Dewey
EF5
12z UKMET takes the low from central MO at 0z 12/25 (992mb) to just east of KDSM by 12z 12/25 (990mb). This is actually VERY close to the GFS, which is about 20 miles further north. 0z 12/22 ECMWF is further west and slightly weaker than both models at 0z 12/25. I haven't been following closely, but it looks like the trend might be for a further east solution. I'll be able to get a look at the 12z ECMWF here in the next few hours, so I'll post then (maybe).
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Mark Sefried
EF2
Sums it up fairly good as it looks like two rounds. Both the NAM and the GFS are showing the same thing for the most part attm. If I were to pick a winner as far as snowfall amounts it would be Sioux Falls, SD area into far SW MN near the I-90 corridor. It will be a fun storm to watch for sure.
Chris Carter
EF3
Got to agree with Mike, not really liking the forecast from OAX. Freezing rain tonight changing to rain by midday Wednesday. Rain until around midnight Wenesday switching to freezing rain until Thursday morning. Thursday morning freezing rain switches to snow until it tapers off Friday morning.
Really would like to stay away from a cold rain here.
Really would like to stay away from a cold rain here.
Mike Hollingshead
Chris Heater
EF3
I noticed on ILX's disco that there is the possibility of the models overdoing the storm. Their watching the 0Z model runs to see if the trough isn't as negativly tilted. Depending on how you see it, it could be good or bad news. For us...it would spell much more ice accumulation than previously thought. It's something to keep an eye on
Phillip Aubin
EF0
I'm going to monitor the system as it moves into the Mankato River Valley (MN) from the ground. It should start dumping accum tommorow afternoon. Current local winds are roughly 20kts out of the east. Atmos is registering @ 30.14". My first snowstorm track- learning!
Phillip Aubin
EF0
It's a good pick- but I'd put my money on a line just east from Alexandra MN- southeast towards St Cloud, down to Minneapolis. Take that line to Eau Clair. Triangle that down to Mankato (where I'll be monitoring) back up to Alexandria. However- just east of me towards Fairbault always seems to get the heaviest dump.
Mike Hollingshead
http://fim.noaa.gov/conus236/rrnocyc/2009122212/nclprd/mslp_sfc_f066.png
FIM going pretty deep too. It, EC, and UKMET all seem to have made a east nudge to the sfc low track through there. But I've now looked at far too many model runs, so don't quote me on that. It is at least east of where GFS and EC had been going of late.
I think some Omaha TV stations are going to be needing to make some rather big changes to their snow forecasts. The whole "3-6 inch" thing would be a huge let down at this point lol.
http://fim.noaa.gov/conus236/rrnocyc/2009122212/nclprd/totp_sfc_f120.png
Another model on that 3+ inch liquid bandwagon.
FIM going pretty deep too. It, EC, and UKMET all seem to have made a east nudge to the sfc low track through there. But I've now looked at far too many model runs, so don't quote me on that. It is at least east of where GFS and EC had been going of late.
I think some Omaha TV stations are going to be needing to make some rather big changes to their snow forecasts. The whole "3-6 inch" thing would be a huge let down at this point lol.
http://fim.noaa.gov/conus236/rrnocyc/2009122212/nclprd/totp_sfc_f120.png
Another model on that 3+ inch liquid bandwagon.
Joe Schaub
Licoln, IL is forecasting 2-3 inches of rain with up to 4 inches locally. Looks like I will be running pumps in the basement on Christmas with that much rain.
I pray 2010 is a drought year, not 1988 drought but certainly much drier than this year has been. When you are over 16" of precip ahead for the year that is way to much rain.
I pray 2010 is a drought year, not 1988 drought but certainly much drier than this year has been. When you are over 16" of precip ahead for the year that is way to much rain.
Darren Addy
EF5
It appears to me that the storm track has not really changed (all that much), but the challenge to the forecast is temps of the layer just off the surface. It is here that the models seem to each have their own take, leaving forecasters to pick and choose what amount of model blending to go with in drawing their lines on the kind of precip (which affects snowfall totals).
GID is the only NE office contributing to AFDs since early morning:
I take back what I said above about the track:
Biggest snowfalls should shift a bit north and east.
GID is the only NE office contributing to AFDs since early morning:
They mention significant icing (hours of it) in their CWA's SE.
I take back what I said above about the track:
Biggest snowfalls should shift a bit north and east.
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