12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm

[Mike Hollingshead]

Surely there is a spot on all these snow output aps to get the actual numbers past 20 inches on Earls? Perhaps I'm crazy but seems it must be spitting out a 37+ inch total west of Sioux City.

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_72HR.gif
Through 72 hour is has it maxed 18-20 up there. The area just south of Vermillion SD I guess.

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_12HR-ACCUM-SNOW_84HR.gif
Then add in the 12 hour graph after that, adding another 12 there.

http://grib2.com/gfs/CONUS_GFS0P5_SFC_12HR-ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif
Next 12, why not another 5.

0z ECMWF must not care for the GFS's company lol, now it's finally changing its mind, quicker with the sfc low.

 

[Joel Wright]

00z models remain about the same. One hell of a snowstorm is on the way from Nebraska up to Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Somewhere in the central NE to central MN area could get 16-22" of snow combined with very strong winds. A true Plains blizzard.

Areas east of there will have all kinds of fun with precip type changes, dry slot intrusion, and potential thunder.

For our immediate area in northwest Illinois it looks like we'll see a quick 2" of snow tonight and early tomorrow. A period of freezing rain with minor ice accumulations late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Then plain rain from late Wednesday through Thursday night as we get dry slotted. During the day on Thursday internal gravity waves could induce wind gusts over 50mph over IA, IL, and IN. Winds at 850mb will be >60kts in this area.

 

[Paul Hadfield]

Newest Nam has almost all the the ILX cwa turning over to rain by Wednesday afternoon. The early morning commmute may be a problem though for you as it does not take much freezing rain to make the roads slick. Most of the time it seems the worst of it comes withen the first hour or so of the freezing rain for travel purposes because a lot of the roads are not salted yet.

ILX wording concurs with what you say and of course shifts the low further W. Warms us up and cancels any significant ice concern for immediate Central as well as SE but they have introduced thunderstorms into the discussion for our area on Christmas Eve which I am ok with

 

[Dan Robinson]

This setup is similar to last year's event that racked up a death toll of 49 from the Plains through the Midwest and Ohio Valley on December 23-24, all in the freezing rain regions of the storm. Timing here is not good.

 

[Chris Carter]

Well, OAX seems to want to run with the idea that the majority of our +3" of precip will fall in the liquid or ice form. They have the changeover to all snow around midday Thursday and up to 6" of snow by the time the storm is done early Christmas morning. All points south and east of that may get less snow than that. While areas north and west of Omaha and Lincoln will see snow greater than 8" and up to a foot northwest of Norfolk.

 

[Darren Addy]

According to the HPC, the worst places probability-wise are where the 40% probabilities for at least 1/4" of ice and at least 12" of snow overlap:
Day 2 ice: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_pice_gt_25.gif
Day 2 snow: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_12.gif
Day 3 snow: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_12.gif

With ice + wind, it looks like there are going to be a lot of power utility employees working on Christmas.

 

[Rob Herman]

probabilities for at least 1/4' of ice

1/4' (I know you meant 1/4")

 

[matt patterson]

By the looks of the new 06z runs that are coming in, points further to the East may feel the hardest impacts. The SFC low is now progged by the GFS to track over Central Arkansas and on through Central/Eastern Missouri. This track is about 200 miles East of where it was previously forecasted. Also to note, the severe weather that was forecast with this system will be further east as well but that is for a different thread.

 

[Darren Addy]

1/4' (I know you meant 1/4")

Oops. Fixed. I need an editor.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

Wow the 12z NAM has really shifted the system east bringing the heaviest band of snow from the KS/MO border up into W IA and SW MN. The 6z GFS also indicated an east shift but not as significant with the heaviest band over E KS/NW MO into C/E NE and E SD and MN. If the KC metro does indeed get the projected amount or even half of it talk about a Christmas miracle considering how hopeless it seemed for a whiter Christmas the last few days. What makes it more encouraging is that this model is probably most accurate with the system already on shore for almost 12 hours now.

Here is the 12z NAM projected snow.
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_84HR.gif

And the 6z GFS projected snow.
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_96HR.gif

It would pretty cool to see this verify I'm not gonna lie.

 

[Darren Addy]

Gotta love this quote from most recent Sioux Falls AFD:

U.S. MODELS RATHER
INCONSISTENT AND GOOFY LOOKING WITH VARIOUS PINWHEELING WAVES ARND
DIGGING UPR TROF EVOLVING TO MAJOR WRAPAROUND UPR LOW BY THU NGT.

That about sums it up.

 

[Darren Addy]

Wow the 12z NAM has really shifted the system east bringing the heaviest band of snow from the KS/MO border up into W IA and SW MN. ...snip...

It would pretty cool to see this verify I'm not gonna lie.

NAM is still considered the outlier in the majority of AFDs I'm reading.

 

[Michael O'Keeffe]

NAM is still considered the outlier in the majority of AFDs I'm reading.

Haha I don't know what to believe anymore I've heard the GFS is the outlier and now the NAM is the outlier. I'm starting to think every model is an outlier. I'm going to just stick my head out the window and see if it is snowing. Now I know why I can't stand winter storms.

 

[Robert Hettchen]

Haha I don't know what to believe anymore I've heard the GFS is the outlier and now the NAM is the outlier. I'm starting to think every model is an outlier. I'm going to just stick my head out the window and see if it is snowing. Now I know why I can't stand winter storms.

agreed!! here in coldwater, ks so far this year we have been forecast to recieve as much as 18 inches so far this year. (not including this storm) we have recieved less than one inch of frozen precip. every time!! 3 days out the ddc nws throws the winter storm watch and then warning and then we get nothing. the first storm we had the possibiltiy for 8-10 inches we didnt even get a flake! and currently we are in a blizzard watch. I will believe it when i see it. lets get this cold unforecastable winter stuff over with! snow big or stop teasing me!! lol come on spring!!!

thanks for the rant.....

 

[Scott Weberpal]

Haha I don't know what to believe anymore I've heard the GFS is the outlier and now the NAM is the outlier. I'm starting to think every model is an outlier. I'm going to just stick my head out the window and see if it is snowing. Now I know why I can't stand winter storms.

The last major system in the upper-midwest (Dec. 8), the NAM was a significant outlier until about 24 hours out...and it ended up being near perfect with the track of the low.