Chris Carter
EF3
I'm seeing a lot of inconsistency with the GFS just in the past 4 runs.
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12/22/09-12/25/09 Midwest Winter Storm
- Thread starter Joel Wright
- Start date
rdale
EF5
Multiply by 100 and that statement is more accurate
For those just starting looking at models - make sure you never look at just the GFS at medium-long ranges. Use the GFS Ensembles (among others.) Had you done it in this case, the extreme spread would have indicated to you that getting excited about any one track was useless.
Chris Carter
EF3
Its storm like these coming in next week, that usually sit back and let the experts hammer out the details.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Experts aren't usually hammering at this point - just making an "educated" guess and waiting. The REAL hammering is in the <48hr range, especially if you're near the rain/snow line. For my location, I'm expecting anything from sunshine to rain... which includes snow, freezing rain, sleet... or just clouds.
rdale
EF5
Like Robert said - it's storms like these where experts know there is no such thing as details any more than 2-3 days in advance (and that's if we're lucky!)
Mike Hollingshead
I think the experts know a couple important details can be believed beyond 3 days. General strength potential and general timing. Two huge aspects can be rather well attained well beyond 2-3 days. And when one figures in on the chaser side of things....those are the only 2 that matter. Not what county wide track a sfc low will take. I think some of the more forecasters on this site forget some of the chasers out there just like to be excited over crazy insane operational GFS runs, even if they don't end up happening. Sure it's not much of a forecasting route, but oh well, it's soooo far out what does it matter anyway!
Anxiously awaiting the insanity on the 0z op GFS. Course the off hour 18z GFS 120hr + runs tell me I don't have much to get excited over since often that off hour run foretells what the next on hour run will see. God it feels good to mention 120+ hr op off hr runs.
rdale
EF5
Some might quibble with the fact that you call "general" strength and "general" timing to be details
Knowing that IF a storm comes it will be on Wednesday doesn't do much for long range winter weather planning -- since it could mean rain, snow, ice, thunder or sunshine for a particular area.I don't understand why that gets people who don't know how to forecast even the least bit excited - I could draw up a map that resembles the 1974 outbreak and post that if it helps the stimulation levels? It's got about the same odds of coming true as the 12Z GFS does at hour 280... Your time would be better spent learning how to forecast as opposed to learning how to copy-n-paste a useless GFS map.
Mike Hollingshead
Perhaps you don't get it because storms themselves don't actually excite you? Forecasting correctly trips your trigger, not what could happen....and what you could then witness. Like a kid before Christmas, there's no need for certainty. And sure, it is a forecast thread...but what harm is there now in the "beyond details zone"? Besides, it is giving you something to "correct" over....probably a bit like an unopened present eh?
Anyone that has a television set has noticed the tendency for forecasts to change and not be worth much...even in the 2-3 day "details" zone. People get that, even if they happen to be excited far out where nothing "matters".
Save your eyes some aweful GFS cut and pastes, use a calendar. Today is the 18th. Christmas eve is the 24th. May as well wait till the details zone! The butterfly might be out getting smashed for all we know.
Dick McGowan
EF5
Well, we'll expect your 'expert' opinion and snowfall totals to be posted right here, in this thread, when that time comes. Don't let us down, Rob!
Joel Wright
EF5
My favorite model for the season so far, the GGEM has shifted a bit south on the latest (00z) run. Not too much of a shift though considering how far out the storm is. Instead of northern Missouri, the low is now tracked through southern Missouri into west-central Indiana. It looks like it's trying to transfer cyclogenesis to the east coast around that time though, so if the east coast cyclogenesis is overdone a further northwest track could reappear.
Operational GFS looks confused at this point. Ensembles probably won't be much better. I expect it to improve considerably by tomorrow night or early Sunday. In the meantime I think the Euro and especially the GGEM should be leaned upon the most.
Operational GFS looks confused at this point. Ensembles probably won't be much better. I expect it to improve considerably by tomorrow night or early Sunday. In the meantime I think the Euro and especially the GGEM should be leaned upon the most.
Chris Allington
EF4
Some might quibble with the fact that you call "general" strength and "general" timing to be details
I don't understand why that gets people who don't know how to forecast even the least bit excited - I could draw up a map that resembles the 1974 outbreak and post that if it helps the stimulation levels? It's got about the same odds of coming true as the 12Z GFS does at hour 280... Your time would be better spent learning how to forecast as opposed to learning how to copy-n-paste a useless GFS map.
General strength and timing show the 'potential' of a system... which is exciting for some and offers a glimpse into the possibilites. Sorry if you've never glanced at a model run and said, "that looks like it might be fun to play in." While fully understanding it probably won't happen. I understand Mike's point. Deep breaths rdale, were not all as awesome as you...
EDIT: Joel, that GEM has done a good job with some of the previous winter systems this year, but then again with that last storm just about every available model did lol. I'll be interested to see what happens over the next couple of days in regards to how they want to phase the two systems as you mentioned.
Robert Dewey
EF5
Heh, don't get me wrong... I love looking at the models (both kinds, actually). It's still interesting to me to see them blow up systems... not necessarily because "it's possible," but because I like to see how the model handles things. Since the odds of seeing SFC low AOB 950mb over Lake Superior (research CRAS WRF model for the last big storm) are extremely low at any given time, I'd like to see what it WOULD look like should that occur; what do SFC winds look like? What's the QPF field look like? etc.. You could probably draw it up and post it, Rob, but I doubt you have the physics processes of an operational or research numerical model
Chris Carter
EF3
Well, its 6:30 am here. Ive looked over the latest runs for the GFS/GEM/Euro and their ensembles. Looks to me that the GFS favors a southern track bringing the heaviest snow across KS/MO even though the ensembles don't point to that. The Euro and its ensembles are pointing to a north track putting the heaviest snow across NE/IA. While the GEM is a compromise of the two, but is leaning more towards the GFS ensembles. Seems like the local waether offices are blindly following the GFS with its southern track over Texas and throwing the Euro out as "tragic".
Right now though, whether we get the big snow or not, doesn't matter to me, we still get a white Christmas because of last week's snowpack. So why not spread the white fluffy snow down to the south where they can also have a white Christmas.
Right now though, whether we get the big snow or not, doesn't matter to me, we still get a white Christmas because of last week's snowpack. So why not spread the white fluffy snow down to the south where they can also have a white Christmas.
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rdale
EF5
Sure I do. I just don't go changing my forecast every 6 hours with the new run and go copy-n-pasting it to every forum I know. I think that's because meteorologists have responsibilities that the general public does not have, but I never said it was wrong. All I've done is suggest that the time spent pressing CTRL-C CTRL-V would be better spent learning how the models work and what they are doing. And I've more positive feedback from those links than any negative press.
That thought process seems to get Mike a little upset, but there's no law against getting your forecast solely from the GFS - just as much as there's no law against Mike making his chase decisions solely from SPC.
Kevin Crawmer
EF2
My two cents on the weather situation: looks like the GFS and ECMWF are starting to come into a little more agreement. While its too far out to get excited, I sure am watching with a close eye because of all the holiday traveling I have to do across Missouri. As of now it looks like the GFS wants to keep the bulk of the snow south of I-70 in MO and down to approximately the MO/AR state line. The ECMWF wants to bring it further north into IA. A blend would be the I-44 corridor northward to the MO/IA state line for the heaviest precip. This can and will fluctuate in the coming days but the little kid in me is getting excited. Getting the kids out in some big snow instead of driving all around the state would be fun.
